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Cook’s 2022 NFL Gambling Picks: Week 3

Week 3 is upon us! Are Cook’s picks going better so far this year?

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Hi, hello & welcome to Week 3 of the National Football League! I’m Steve Cook, and one thing stood out to me more than anything else while watching games this past Sunday. That one thing: It’s amazing just how close all of these teams are.

There were two games in the 1 PM window that appeared to have turned into routs. The Ravens seemed to have things well in hand against the Dolphins. The Browns were up big on the Jets. You kinda stopped paying attention to these games, except for the idea that maybe Lamar Jackson could break the record for quarterback fantasy points in a game. As it ended up, he only ended up with four more points than Tua Tagovailoa. Then in the 4 PM window we had the Raiders taking care of the Cardinals until late, and another game that featured a team making a comeback that was a little too short.

Not that I’m bitter about that.

The parity in the National Football League is amazing. Look at the standings and you’ll see a ton of teams at 1-1. Which is good news for all of those teams, since the odds of teams at 0-2 making the playoffs aren’t great.

Along with them Bengals, we’ve got the Raiders, Titans, Panthers & Falcons at 0-2. I don’t think many people expected the Panthers or Falcons to get into the playoffs this season considering their opposition in their division, but those AFC teams had some talk boosting them up. Three potential AFC contenders looking at less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs now. Can they possibly make it through?

Tough to say. I should point out that an important exception to the parity in the NFL is the Buffalo Bills. The media told us in the offseason that the Bills would win the next five Super Bowls. I was tempted to disagree with this, as people here in Kentucky tell me the media is wrong all the time and that’s why they keep voting for horrendous public officials that haven’t done anything for the Commonwealth or the people that voted for them in the decades since they’ve been elected. Well, maybe the Bills will prove that dreaded media right and win the next five Super Bowls! Can’t argue against that after what they did to the Rams & Titans, right?

The shame about the Bills’ performance is that I had a whole bit planned on how the NFL is so much better than every other sport because of their selection of teams that could win the title. Baseball has about three teams that one could realistically pick, and we know most of their teams aren’t sniffing the playoffs. College football also has three potential title-winners, realstically two since we know Ohio State isn’t beating an SEC team. The NBA has a couple I guess, it’s tough to keep track of who’s on what team there. The NHL is usually more competitive, but this season we all knew the Colorado Avalanche was walking away with the Stanley Cup about halfway through.

I was going to sell this parity thing, but the darn Bills killed it on Monday night. Bloody hell. Now we roll into the picks, and talk about two teams I have zero interest in talking about. Lovely! Our lines are the Vega Insider Consensus as of Wednesday night when this column was finished.

Thursday, September 22

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-4.5)

Had the Browns held on for that victory over the Jets, they’d be sitting on top of a division with some questionable looking teams and talking themselves into having a pretty decent record when their disgraced quarterback returns later in the season. That’s the thing about the NFL though, all it takes is 1:55 where everything goes wrong to completely flip the script. Plenty of blame to go around too, whether it’s Nick Chubb not taking too much time to score, the rookie kicker missing the extra point, or the defense folding like a tent in the face of Joe Flacco.

I would say there’s still reason for hope in Cleveland. After all, the Steelers’ offense has looked downright hapless the first two weeks. Mitchell Trubisky shockingly isn’t the answer at quarterback. The defense was fine, but not quite the same with the absence of TJ Watt creating a pass rush on pretty much every play. I see the Steelers as more of a threat in coming seasons than in 2022. I don’t usually like teams on quick turnarounds, but I think that’s exactly what the Browns need this week. The sooner they can make people forget about their collapse against the Jets, the better.

Sunday, September 25

New Orleans (-3) at Carolina

That’s right, somebody’s ‘O’ must go! The Panthers have a bigger zero to worry about in their win column, and it’s kind of tough to see when they’ll get rid of it if not this week. It isn’t like the Saints have exactly lit the world on fire in their first two games against NFC South competition. Mayyybe the Cardinals next week, but then Carolina gets the 49ers, Rams & Bucs. It’s a dire stretch for a team that’s gone 2-15 since starting out the 2021 season 3-0.

As difficult as things look in Carolina, I can’t say that I’ve been impressed with the Saints so far. They had to come from behind to pull off a win over the Falcons, then got pretty well handled by the Bucs. Alvin Kamara’s return this week should boost the offense, and Michael Thomas is showing flashes of what he used to be. I think the Saints win this game, but can see the Panthers keeping it tight like they have in both of their games so far.

Houston at Chicago (-3)

Definitely feels like one of those games to bet the under. Neither of these offenses have looked fantastic during the first two weeks of the season, and it’s not like people were touting Davis Mills or Justin Fields for the passing title during preseason predictions. So watch these teams go over and make us look silly.

The Texans have played teams tough early on, including a game in Denver that most people expected to be a blowout. I think they can stay somewhat close to Da Bears.

Kansas City (-6.5) at Indianapolis

Maybe the Colts just aren’t going to win in Jacksonville ever again. Not only did Indianapolis lose last week, they were the first team to get shut out in 2022. By the Jaguars! Colts fans have to hope that’s merely the team hitting rock bottom and not a sign of things to come. Vegas & the bettors don’t seem to have optimistic thoughts, as the line’s jumped four points in favor of the Chiefs since Sunday. Quite the turn.

As bad as the Colts looked in Week 2, it’s tempting to buy into them now that the line’s flipped. The Chiefs’ offense didn’t look like its usual juggernaut self during Week 2…but then you remember that they played on Thursday night against a team that usually gives them trouble. I find it tough to have any doubt in Patrick Mahomes based off of a spot where offenses tend to struggle. KC’s defense can create some turnovers & the Chiefs should be able to take care of business in Indy by a TD or more.

Buffalo (-5.5) at Miami

We all know the Bills have looked incredible in the first two weeks, but the Dolphins also deserve some love for their early showing. That comeback victory over the Ravens in Week 2 was an absolute thing of beauty, and the Dolphin offense looked every bit of what Miami fans were hoping for when Tyreek Hill arrived. The whole Tyreek, Tua & Jaylen Waddle thing looks pretty good in the early returns.

This will be their acid test. The Bills defense has been every bit as good as advertised. Josh Allen has been doing Josh Allen things. Buffalo easily handled two of last year’s division winners, and it’s tough for me to tell you to pick against the Bills right now. Even if the Dolphins are becoming a sexy pick to do some things. I have to see Tua and company keep up with Josh Allen in a shootout before I believe it.

Detroit at Minnesota (-6)

We tend to overreact most to games that are televised nationally. Teams & players that don’t do well on Monday Night Football get more criticism while those that excel get raised to new heights in the court of public opinion. Brett Favre’s MNF record was so stellar that there’s still people that think he’s a decent human being. Kirk Cousins’s MNF record has been so poor that later generations will think he’s the one that sent co-workers pictures of his penis and stole welfare money from Mississippi. Wild times.

I’m leaning towards the Vikings, but I would definitely wait until closer to game time before making the bet. The factors of MNF overreaction, Lion love & Kirk Cousins hate will drive this number down. Dunno if it’ll get to three, but it’ll be closer than six. Since it’s at six for the purposes of this column, I will take the Lions and all those points even if I’m not as enamored with them as everybody else is. Maybe if I got HBO Max I’d be singing a different tune, tough to say.

Baltimore (-3) at New England

The AFC East went 3-0 against the AFC North last week. The North would have had a 2-1 edge had the Browns & Ravens been able to hold double-digit leads. Baltimore’s meltdown was even more damning than Cleveland’s, as they led the Dolphins 35-14 early in the fourth quarter. Miami outscored Baltimore 28-3 in the final thirteen minutes, changing the Ravens’ narrative from “we good, Lamar Jackson looks like an MVP candidate” to “holy crap our defense sucks”.

Fortunately for the Ravens, the Patriots’ offense doesn’t quite look like the Dolphins’ offense. People are talking them up this week because it’s a Bill Belichick team and we have to give them the benefit of the doubt, but I still think the Ravens are quite a bit better.

Cincinnati (-5) at NY Jets

One of the lazier takes out there (believe me, I’ve always been the master of lazy takes) is the idea that the Bengals organization hasn’t tried to fix their offensive line. They’ll tell you that ownership has ignored the problem for years, and that’s the reason Joe Burrow is constantly running for his life. It’s not that simple. The fact is that the Bengals have been trying to beef up their offensive line long before Burrow fell into their laps in the 2020 NFL Draft. We can go back to 2015 when they drafted tackles Cedric Ogbuehi & Jake Fisher with their first two picks. They drafted one lineman each in 2016 & 17, then took center Billy Price & tackle Jonah Williams with their first picks in the 2018 & 19 Drafts. This past off-season saw the addition of La’el Collins, and other offensive linemen that found success in other places have come through over the years.

So it’s not like the Bengals aren’t trying to protect Joe Burrow. They’re just failing miserably. Draft picks haven’t panned out, free agents have come in a year or two too late, coaching & game planning has come up short, and now Burrow’s on pace to get sacked approximately 350 times this season. Not ideal, and as long as it remains a problem it’s tough to put a lot of faith into Cincinnati making another playoff run.

As far as this game goes, it reminds me a lot of last year’s Bengals/Jets game in New Jersey. Jets have a backup QB going. Bengals are the favorites. I won’t be watching since I’ll be at work. I’m expecting a similar result to last season, a Jets victory and lots of questions about the future in Cincinnati.

Las Vegas (-2) at Tennessee

Two different experiences for these teams in Week 2. The Raiders held a lead for a long time until the Cardinals made the big comeback. The Titans never had a chance in Buffalo. Losses that hurt for different reasons. One of these teams will be 0-3 after this game, unless they end up in a tie. We’ve already had one this season, so we can’t rule that out!

There hasn’t been much going right for the Titans in these games. The Raiders at least have the Carr-Adams connection going pretty well, so we’ll roll with them.

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington

I blame myself. Sometimes you just get a funny feeling about a team and decide to roll with it. The Commanders gave me a funny feeling last week and I started wondering whether or not they could be a playoff team. Then they went out there and got their butts kicked by the Lions. On the flip side of that, I expressed some doubt in the Eagles. Then Jalen Hurts became the greatest quarterback of all time against the Vikings. These things happen.

Momentum seems to be riding with the Eagles, but the Commanders have homefield and all those points. Gotta go with homefield & points when you can get them.

Jacksonville at LA Chargers (-7)

It’s a rarity for the Jaguars to win a game in blowout fashion, but that’s exactly what happened against the Colts. Meanwhile, the Chargers went to Kansas City on a short week and came within a field goal against one of the top Super Bowl favorites. No such thing as moral victories, but Chargers fans can’t be feeling too bad.

The Chargers also got a little extra rest time, which makes a difference. They have the better offense & defense here, and should be able to handle the Jags.

LA Rams (-3.5) at Arizona

Things weren’t looking too good for the Cardinals after one half in Las Vegas. Down 20-0 coming off of a whooping in Week 1…not the best of times. Times got better as the second half ensued, and the defense ended up getting a fumble recovery for a touchdown and the win in overtime. Kyler Murray stepped things up a notch or ten, and the First Half of the Season Arizona Cardinals seem to be back. The Rams did get the win over the Falcons as expected, but they still don’t seem to be the team they were last season. Still time to get there.

I think this will either be a close Rams victory or the Cardinals making a statement. Either way, take the Cardinals as the home doggs.

Atlanta at Seattle (-2)

I know the Seahawks aren’t the Seahawks anymore and the Falcons did show signs of life in LA last week. That being said, Seattle ain’t LA. The 12th Man is a thing, and enough to keep the Seahawks on top by at least 3 points.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay (-2)

Maybe the teams aren’t quite the juggernauts they were a couple of years ago. Its still Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady, so you know it’ll get our undivided attention. The GOAT against the man that many experts say is the most gifted passer of all time. Both have aged like fine wines, and maybe a chardonnay would be a fine beverage to consume during this one.

We told you Packers fans to R-E-L-A-X last week, and we were right. The team was just fine in Lambeau Field against those hated Bears, and I’m liking them this week against a Bucs team with Mike Evans suspended and the rest of the WR corps banged up to the point where Cole Beasley had to be called up. It is a perfect fit in some ways, as Beasley seems to be the epitome of Florida Man.

San Francisco (-1.5) at Denver

I don’t really have a good read on either of these teams yet. Theoretically, Russell Wilson at home is a safe pick over the 49ers, but Denver doesn’t really look like Russell Wilson’s home yet. The 49ers seem to have things figured out, and it’s not like Jimmy G is a step down from Trey Lance, even though some want that to be so.

No, I wasn’t one of the people losing their minds over the idea of the 49ers re-signing Garoppolo. What’s wrong with having two good quarterbacks? Especially when one is on that rookie contract, All the wringing of hands over this felt dumb at the time, and now that Lance is out indefinitely the 49ers look like geniuses.

Monday, September 26

Dallas at NY Giants (-2.5)

Maybe us football purists get annoyed sometimes with the hype. But when you’re talking Cowboys vs Giants, its America’s Team against the biggest team in the biggest city. Lotta eyes on that game, so it’s no surprise that it’s always featured in prime time or that 4 PM window. Its a bonus when the two teams seem competitive.

Feels like the Giants are a team that could sneak up on people. They’ve been decent on defense, and if Saquon Barkley can stay healthy, the offense might cook even if Daniel Jones doesn’t live up to that Duke hype. The Cowboys never sneak up on anybody due to their hype, but they’re not giving up just because Dak Prescott’s missing a few weeks. Their run game is stout, Micah Parsons is a beast rushing passers, one can see a road to playoff contention if they can hold the fort while Dak is gone.

Listen, I’m not a fan of either of these teams and I don’t see them going too far if they make it to the playoffs. I am a fan of competitive football games, and I see two evenly matched teams here. That’s why I’m taking the Cowboys and the points. It would be so Dallas for the team to get on a good streak and get the fans exited about what will happen when Dak returns.

Then when the team doesn’t get better…well, that’ll keep the talking heads talking until at least June, if not longer.

Week 2 Results: 7-9
Overall Results: 15-17


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NFL

Cook’s 2022 NFL Gambling Picks: Week 13

It’s lucky week 13 as Steve Cook’s path to a winning record continues! Can Cook keep the streak going with his NFL Week 13 Gambling Picks?

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Josh Allen Buffalo Bills Away Jersey

It’s lucky week 13 as Steve Cook’s path to a winning record continues! Can Cook keep the streak going with his NFL Week 13 Gambling Picks?

Hi, hello and welcome to Week 13 of the National Football League! I’m Steve Cook, and I can’t believe it’s already December. Time flies when you’re having fun, and I think most of us have had a good amount of fun so far this season. There’s still plenty to come, and we’re at the point where the cream rises to the top and we find out just who is for real around here.

We had another successful week in the picks, continuing our streak of going above .500. Could use a really big week to get the record looking good, and hopefully that’ll happen in the following words. Spreads are via Vegas Insider Consensus on Wednesday afternoon and are subject to change.

Thursday, December 1

Buffalo (-4) at New England

It’s one of those rare weeks where the Thursday game doesn’t feature two teams still banged up from Sunday. Both the Bills & Patriots played on Thanksgiving, so they’ll have the typical rest period to get ready for an AFC East clash. I’m expecting a defensive, low scoring game here, but at the end of the day the choice is between Josh Allen & Mac Jones. I can’t see Mac keeping up with the Bills’ offense, even if the Patriots have one of the better defenses in the league. I’ll take the Bills to keep their position on top of the division, and figure that certain things will happen to knock them ahead of Miami.

Sunday, December 4

Cleveland (-7) vs. Houston

There wouldn’t be much reason to care about this game if it didn’t involve the return of every massage therapist’s least favorite customer. The NFL knows how to book these things…it wasn’t going to be enough to have Deshaun Watson’s comeback game be in some random NFL city, it needed to happen in Houston. Otherwise, nobody’s talking about a game featuring the hapless Texans hosting a Browns team that people probably still think are going to make a run here in December.

I don’t have much faith in the Browns to do much other than beat the Texans.

Denver at Baltimore (-8.5)

The Ravens have the advantage of having one of the easiest schedules in the history of the NFL at the end of this season. They should be able to coast to an AFC North title and a good seed in the AFC. So far, they haven’t exactly taken advantage of that schedule. They barely took care of Carolina, then they found a way to lose to the Jaguars. It’s nothing new, as the Ravens have spent most of this season finding ways to lose games they have in control. They should be 9-2 or even better than that, instead they’re 7-4 & tied with the Bengals at the top of the AFC North. Tons of missed opportunities for the Ravens here in 2022.

At least we’re still wondering if they’re frauds or not. We know that the Denver Broncos are frauds. They were a quarterback away after last season, and everybody thought that Russell Wilson would fill that void. He hasn’t. One of the most disappointing teams in recent memory. Not only are they worse than we thought they would be, they’re so boring to watch that they got the Chiefs flexed out of a Sunday Night Football slot. Imagine how un-entertaining a team has to be that NBC is like “Well, we can’t air them against Patrick Mahomes”. Amazing.

As much as the Broncos offend me as a fan of entertaining football, I still have to tell you to take them at this number. The Ravens haven’t shown the ability to blow teams out, and will let the sorry, no-account Broncos hang around in a low-scoring affair.

Pittsburgh at Atlanta (-1.5)

Due to the ineptitude of the NFC South, the Falcons are still in the playoff picture. The Steelers aren’t, but they do have the look of a team headed in the right direction. They also do a good job of stopping the run, as Jonathan Taylor could attest to after that Week 12 game. I like the Steelers here, even if Najee Harris doesn’t end up playing. As long as those defense studs are healthy, they have a chance against most teams.

Tennessee at Philadelphia (-5.5)

Derrick Henry got shut down in Week 12 by the Bengals defense, but I like him to have a strong rebound game against an Eagles defense that’s prone to giving up big runs. The Eagles have a high-powered offense, but Tennessee’s defense has managed to hold their opponents under 21 points in eight straight games. Something tells me this is going to be a tight one, so I’ll take the Titans to keep things close.

Jacksonville (-1.5) at Detroit

The Jaguars showed some spunk last week against the Ravens, defeating Lamar Jackson & company in dramatic fashion. Now they get a Lions team that has a knack for bring involved in games that end in dramatic fashion, including a narrow loss to the Bills on Thanksgiving. Should be a high-scoring game.

Vegas is showing quite a bit of faith in the Jags here. I know they had the good win last week & Detroit has a knack for losing close games, but I don’t mind riding with the home dogg Lions this week. They should be ready to go and well-rested.

Washington (-2.5) at NY Giants

These two NFC East teams seem headed in opposite directions lately. The Giants got all of the buzz early on but are starting to tail off due to injuries to their offensive line & wide receivers. Meanwhile, Taylor Heinicke is making things interesting in Washington while the defense is holding teams in check. It’ll likely be a low-scoring game, but I like the Commanders to keep things rolling while the Giants keep looking for answers.

NY Jets at Minnesota (-3)

Do the Jets have a quarterback now? Mike White had himself a day on Sunday against the Bears. If the team can find some consistency on offense, they have a defense that might be able to take this team farther than one would expect. The only issue here? The Minnesota Vikings are a harder out than a Bears team missing Justin Fields.

As good as the Jets defense is, I see them having problems stopping the likes of Justin Jefferson. Dalvin Cook had a weak showing against the Patriots, but I think he gets things back on track this week. The Vikings have struggled against the best teams in the NFL, but I think they get it done this week.

Green Bay (-4.5) at Chicago

Aaron Rodgers says he’s going to play this week after missing the last quarter of the Packers’ game with the Eagles due to injury. Most years, this would be considered a good thing. In 2022, it’s tough to blame Packers fans if they wonder that the team might be better off letting Jordan Love have a crack at things. Love looked good in that fourth quarter against the Eagles.

The good news for Green Bay? They’re playing the Bears, which almost always ends well for them. Lots of questions surround the Bears, most importantly the health status of Justin Fields. Apparently he’ll be a game time decision this week. Tough to like the Bears under those circumstances, so I’ll do what I usually do and pick the Packers over them.

Seattle (-7.5) at LA Rams

The Seahawks have been struggling a bit lately, losing close games to the Buccaneers & Raiders. This pales in comparison to the struggles the Rams have gone through, as the defending Super Bowl Champions have dropped their last five games & seen whatever playoff hopes they had go up in smoke. They could theoretically win their last six games and finish 9-8, but it seems more likely they’ll be trying to avoid setting the record for fewest wins in a season after winning the Super Bowl. The Broncos won six games in 1999, it wasn’t all that surprising since John Elway retired after winning his second straight Super Bowl. The Rams’ struggles are a bit more surprising.

The Rams’ struggles will likely continue this week, though one can make an argument in their favor against a Seahawks team that seems to have hit a wall in recent weeks after over-achieving to start the season. I think Geno Smith leads the Seahawks to victory, but the Rams keep things relatively close.

Miami at San Francisco (-3.5)

Two of the hottest teams in the NFL will meet up in Santa Clara on Sunday. The Dolphins have won every game that Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t injured for and are on a five game winning streak. The 49ers are on a four-game winning streak of their own that coincides with Christian McCaffrey meshing into the offense. The 49er defense has been top-notch, but is going to face one of their toughest tests of the season this week.

I’m not saying the Dolphin offense can’t be shut down, I’m just saying we haven’t seen it happen yet. If somebody can get it done it’s the 49ers. I think this will be a close game though, so I recommend taking the Dolphins as road doggs.

LA Chargers (-1.5) at Las Vegas

Both of these teams got much needed victories last week, the Chargers in the last seconds of regulation & the Raiders in overtime. Week 1 saw the Chargers defeat the Raiders by five points, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the same thing happened this time around. Justin Herbert should be able to score enough points on the Raiders’ defense to keep the Chargers in playoff contention.

Kansas City (-2.5) at Cincinnati

There’s a big difference between the Joe Burrow/Zac Taylor Bengals and the Carson Palmer/Andy Dalton/Marvin Lewis Bengals of the 2000s & 2010s. Elite teams were happy to see those Bengal teams of years past. They knew they could get over on those guys, even if those Bengals showed flashes of brilliance. When the lights were on bright, those Bengals would fade away. Their clutch gene was non-existent. These Bengals have shown more fortitude than their predecessors. They have a knack for beating AFC teams that are supposedly better than them. Ask the Tennessee Titans, who are 0-3 against the Bengals since Joe Burrow showed up. Ask the Kansas City Chiefs, who the Bengals beat to get into the playoffs last season, and who the Bengals beat in the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs were favored to win both of those games, and had a multiple touchdown lead in each game, but didn’t get the job done either time. The Bengals rose to the occasion and sent the Chiefs home without reason to chop tomahawks.

So we’ve got another week featuring an alleged “revenge” game that isn’t really one but we act like it is so we have something to talk about. Kansas City will have to do a lot more than win in Week 13 against Cincinnati to even the score here. Can they do it this week? I don’t see why not. As hot as the Bengals have been lately, the Chiefs just keep doing their thing and are still the team to beat in the AFC.

Indianapolis at Dallas (-10.5)

The Colts have shown more fire lately, but Jeff Saturday is finding out that this whole head coaching thing is a lot harder than it looks when you’re a pundit on TV talking about how dumb all the coaches are. You think you know all of the ins & outs of clock management, then you’re trying to do it yourself & failing miserably.

Sunday Night will be Football Night, and the Cowboys actually defied the odds and haven’t gone into the tank yet. There’s still time for that, but it won’t be this week. The Cowboys have a better offense & defense, and should handle anything Indy throws at them.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-3.5)

It’s Andy Dalton vs. Tom Brady in a prime time game. Is an explanation required? Take the Buccaneers.

Week 12 Results: 8-7-1
Overall Results: 86-89-6


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Down The Wire: NFL No Cap Recap Week 12

Tom and Dave are back, with no cap, to break down all the action from week 12 in the NFL.

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Tom and Dave are back, with no cap, to break down all the action from week 12 in the NFL.

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