Bills vs Chiefs and Cowboys vs Eagles highlights a packed Week 6 in the NFL, and Steve Cook is here to help you with your (entertainment purposes only) picks!

Hi, hello & welcome to Week 6 of the National Football League! Things are heating up and we’re starting to see some separation between the wheat & the chaff of this league. Got some big prime time matchups, as I think everybody’s looking forward to Bills vs. Chiefs & Cowboys vs. Eagles. Then we’ve got some other games that, well, are games that will be played.

Let’s get to the picks! Lines are via Vegas Insider Consensus as of Wednesday night.

Thursday, October 13

Washington at Chicago

The Bears are debuting their orange alternate helmets this Thursday night against the Commanders. pic.twitter.com/bsQ2UpUd6N

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 11, 2022

I can’t remember the last time people outside of the Chicago & Washington fanbases got excited about a game featuring these two teams. They met three times in the playoffs during the 1980s, so I would have to assume it was back then. Both of these franchises have had intermittent success since then, but neither has really captivated the nation with their play. This isn’t one of those games that have people crazy excited about Thursday night.

That said, I think this could be a pretty decent game! Two evenly matched teams that have played most of their opponents close and will likely play each other close here. I’m liking the Bears with the homefield advantage by a field goal or so.

Sunday, October 16

San Francisco (-5.5) at Atlanta

On this day in 1985, #49ers rookie WR @JerryRice scored his first #NFL touchdown in 38-17 win over the #Falcons.

He would finish his career with 207 touchdowns in the regular season and 22 more in the playoffs.

(Via @NFLLegacy) #Random49ers #FTTB pic.twitter.com/k8veJVpWCQ

— #Random49ers (@Random49ers) October 6, 2022

The Falcons got a really rough break on Sunday. Late in the fourth quarter Grady Jarrett had managed to tackle Tom Brady & seemingly end a Buccaneers drive that would have iced the game for Tampa. Atlanta would be getting the ball back with just under three minutes left, down by six points. There was only one problem: the referee decided to throw a flag on the play for roughing the passer. The Bucs’ possession continued, they ran the clock out and got a key victory in the NFC South.

Things like this were bound to happen after the Tua Tagovailoa controversy. Since the Dolphins dropped the ball so hard on that, referees will now need to go overboard in protecting the quarterback so something like Tua’s situation doesn’t happen again. And, let’s be honest, it’s not like you need to ask referees to protect Tom Brady. Expect a ton of roughing the passer penalties that happen on plays that don’t look illegal for the rest of this season.

The 49ers will be cruising into town after a big win over Carolina. The unfortunate part for them is they’ll be missing Emmanuel Moseley for the rest of the season, and Nick Bosa isn’t looking great for Sunday’s game. They’ll need to hope that the backups step up. The good news: the 49ers should still be able to stop the run, and running is most of what the Falcons do.

New England at Cleveland (-2.5)

Bill Belichick’s first NFL head coaching win and first playoff win both came against the Patriots while he was the Browns coach from 1991-1995. His 300th head coaching win came against the Browns in 2019. pic.twitter.com/s64vA8oHqE

— The Hall presented by Raytheon Technologies (@TheHall) October 10, 2022

I’m not really sure what to make of either of these teams, really. The Patriots have been pretty up and down the first few weeks. The Browns have been in close games, three of them ending in somewhat embarrassing fashion. That’s why I’m inclined to take the Patriots and the points here. Even if the Browns win, it’ll probably be by three points at the most.

NY Jets at Green Bay (-7.5)

Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Erin Andrews and Tom Rinaldi have Packers-Jets at noon from Lambeau on Sunday. That’s what happens when the Jets have a winning record coming to town.

— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) October 11, 2022

The Jets have become a different team since Zach Wilson took the reins, and have scored two straight wins since his return. They haven’t played anybody like the Packers though. Then again, putting my faith in Aaron Rodgers & the Packers hasn’t exactly been rewarded so far. I’ll give Green Bay one more week to get their stuff together at home against a mid AFC team.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-1.5)

The Texans-Jaguars game might top the Broncos-Colts for worst game of the year. The only fortunate thing for most people is they aren't having to watch this garbage.

— Charean Williams (@NFLCharean) October 9, 2022

The Colts got blown out just a few weeks ago in Jacksonville. Given this, you might be wondering why they’re favored in the re-match. Well, it turns out that the Jaguars play just as poorly in Indianapolis as the Colts play in Jacksonville. In the last decade, the Jags have gone 2-8 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Add in the fact that the Jaguars have gone 1-2 since shutting out the Colts while the Colts have gone 2-1, and it seems like these two teams are heading in opposite directions.

I’m thinking the opposite directions will continue here. Take the Colts.

Minnesota (-3.5) at Miami

I listened into a Dolphins space, maybe hoping to hear their take on a Vikings game on Sunday.

Instead they said they could trade Mike Gesicki for Roquan Smith straight up and it’s win for both sides and they were serious.

— Brev (@brevmanbane) October 10, 2022

How the mighty have fallen. The Dolphins have gone from being the new hotness to the bottom of the heap in just a couple weeks’ time. Skylar Thompson is currently the QB1 after Tua Tagovailoa & Teddy Bridgewater both got concussed. He did well in the preseason! We all wish him luck and hope he won’t become the third. Tyreek Hill injured his foot last week against the Jets, and while the Dolphins are optimistic that he’ll play, it’s not exactly the news Dolphins fans needed to hear.

The Vikings have recovered well from getting blown out by the Eagles in Week 2, and are somewhat flying under the radar with their 4-1 record. They need to take care of business in Miami, and Kirk Cousins doesn’t seem like the kind of guy you need to worry about on that account.

Cincinnati (-1.5) at New Orleans

“Hopefully our crowd will be a little bit more behind the #Saints team and not the local favorites. We’ve got a couple local favorites on our side too.”Dennis Allen on Sunday’s game against Joe Burrow and the Bengals

— Rod Walker (@RodWalkerNola) October 10, 2022

The Bengals & Saints have always seemed somewhat connected due to their Who Dey/Who Dat cheers. It’s gotten even more incestuous lately, with LSU products Joe Burrow & Ja’Marr Chase retaining great popularity in Louisiana and former Bengals starting QB Andy Dalton attaining the same role with the Saints. I don’t think the SuperDome will cheer for Burrow & Chase more than their Saints, but the speculation about such a thing will give sports talk radio in Cincinnati & New Orleans plenty to talk about.

Dalton, assuming he plays this week, will have played against his former team in three straight years. The first two years went well for Dalton, he led the Cowboys & Bears to victories and put up decent enough numbers. Dalton has other people to put up numbers for him, and I expect Taysom Hill to put up some big numbers in a Saints victory.

Baltimore (-5.5) at NY Giants

Ravens are 5-point favorites over Giants, per @CaesarsSports.

It's an unusual line given NY is 4-1 and playing at home.

A team 4-1 or better entering Week 6 has been that large of a home underdog only 3 times: the 1966 Cardinals, 2007 Cowboys and 2020 Bills, per @ESPNStatsInfo.

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) October 11, 2022

Feels kind of weird to see a 4-1 team as this big of a dog at home, but I think I see what Vegas is doing here. Giants fans are going to be outraged at the disrespect shown their team, and will throw gobs of money on them against a Ravens team that is still thought of as one of the top contenders in the AFC. Vegas will count on the Ravens to take care of business so they can keep their casinos looking spiffy.

The Ravens are certainly capable of taking care of said business. The margin is what gets me, as all of the Giants’ games thus far have been within one possession. It’s going to be a close one, but I think the Ravens are the slightly better play. And if you can get them at a lower margin, more power to you.

Tampa Bay (-8) at Pittsburgh

Buccaneers should beat the Steelers by 2+ Touchdowns AT LEAST next week. If not there is a serious problem.

— JC Cornell (@CornellNFL) October 9, 2022

It’s only Week 6, and the Steelers are only 1-4. That being said, it sure looks like Kenny Pickett & crew are likely to be the first Steelers squad to finish under .500 since 2003. It’s been an incredible run of success, and I’d usually be the last one to sell the Steelers short this early in the season. I’ve seen them come from the ashes too many times. I’ve never seen a Steelers team like this. Their defense has lost a lot of its punch since T.J. Watt went out of action. I could see Kenny Pickett, Najee Harris & George Pickens forming the core of a viable offense, but it’s going to take time.

Maybe the Steelers end up gelling sooner than we think, and end up making it to 9-8. We never rule anything out! As for right now, I’m liking the Buccaneers to cover, which is kind of dangerous in its own right but looks like the only feasible option at the minute.

Carolina at LA Rams (-10.5)

The Rams-Panthers game at SoFi Stadium on Sunday is the most affordable home game of the season with a current “get-in” price of $40 —80% less expensive than the Rams home game the following week against the 49ers ($206), according to @TickPick. The cheapest parking pass is $100.

— Arash Markazi (@ArashMarkazi) October 11, 2022

This is a tough one. The Panthers just fired their coach, their starting QB has a high ankle sprain and they’re travelling across the country. There’s no real reason to think they can win this game based on any of the evidence presented over the first five weeks. Except for the fact that the Rams are going their own problems. They’re sitting at 2-3 after losses to the 49ers & Cowboys that weren’t especially competitive. The Rams offensive line isn’t stopping anybody. If they can stop anybody, one would think it would be the Panthers.

I don’t feel great taking the Rams here, but if there was ever a chance for one of those “get right” games, this would be it.

Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle

Pete Carroll says in afternoon presser that the Seahawks are in conversations about potentially moving their game Sunday to avoid conflict with Mariners. Said both sides taking right now to explore all options.

— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) October 10, 2022

Seattle’s loss to New Orleans last week wasn’t the offense’s fault. Geno Smith had another outstanding performance. Kenneth Walker emerged as a good option at RB after Rashaad Penny’s injury. The issue with the Seahawks is their defense, which let Taysom Hill run all over them and become a fantasy threat again. The Cardinals have a middle of the pack offense that should be able to shine against Seattle’s defense. I like them to get the win here.

Buffalo (-2.5) at Kansas City

Chiefs and Bills fans annual fight on the internet week officially commences like: pic.twitter.com/snJIXUqPlT

— Matt C (@MattfromKC) October 11, 2022

This is the one we’ve been waiting for since last year’s AFC Divisional Round. The Chiefs won that game in thrilling fashion, getting a measure of revenge after Buffalo’s win at Arrowhead Stadium in the regular season. The Chiefs have had the Bills’ number in recent seasons, winning three out of four meetings since 2020 including two in the playoffs.

Buffalo has looked much better during the first five weeks of this season. Going into Arrowhead will be nothing new for them, as they’ve been there three times in the last two seasons. I’m liking the Bills to keep their winning ways going in Kansas City in what should be an exciting game.

Dallas at Philadelphia (-6)

The obsession the Eagles fans have with the Cowboys is low key weird af.

— Britt Johnson (@Iambrittjohnson) October 11, 2022

It’s not often that the NFC East lives up to the hype foisted upon it by the national media every season. This seems like one of those seasons. The Eagles are our last remaining undefeated team at 5-0. The Cowboys are 4-1 in spite of Dak Prescott missing the four victories. Then there’s the Giants, who are 4-1 in spite of all expectations. Dallas & Philadelphia face off this Sunday night in a game that most of us are actually looking forward to for once.

Dak is reportedly still out for this week, meaning the Cooper Rush Experience continues. I’ve been telling you to ride this thing out since it started, and even though the Eagles are a step up in competition I’m still liking the Cowboys as road doggs.

Monday, October 17

Denver at LA Chargers (-5.5)

The #Broncos have already been on primetime three times in five weeks to start the season.

And … they're back on primetime again next Monday night against the Chargers.

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 7, 2022

It’s getting easier to forget, but there was a point in time where people thought that the 2022 Denver Broncos were interesting. It seemed like they were a quarterback away in 2021, and the acquisition of Russell Wilson meant they had that quarterback. Apparently people were wrong, at least as far as the idea of the Broncos being interesting to watch went. Denver followed up a Sunday night 11-10 brouhaha with a Thursday night 9-12 stinker that saw their fans leaving during overtime. I can’t even blame them, as the game was a crime against football.

The good news: After this week, we only have to suffer through one more Broncos game in prime time. Since it’s on NBC in Week 14, there’s a chance it’ll get flexed out. (Probably not, since they’re playing the Chiefs.) Their Week 8 London game against the Jaguars will air on ESPN+, so those of us without that service won’t have to worry about that. Soon enough, our long national nightmare will be over.

The Chargers have a pretty effective offense. They had a bit of a struggle the last time they played at home, but have rebounded well with two straight road wins. I like them to win, but I also like the Broncos to keep it close.

Week 5 Results: 7-8-1
Overall Results: 35-42-4