With three weeks left in the regular season to get back to a winning record–can Steve Cook get on the right side of .500 with his Week 16 NFL Gambling Picks?

Hi, hello & welcome to Week 16 of the National Football League! I’m Steve Cook, and last week was another struggle. After getting to .500 a couple of weeks ago, the wheels have completely fallen off the operation. The way things have played out in the NFL the last couple of weeks, I don’t feel too awful about it. It’s been one of those stretches where one should expect the unexpected.

We saw a ton of comeback wins in Week 15, including the biggest comeback victory in NFL history. You just can’t assume that something is going to happen, or that a game is over at any point. We can’t even assume we’ll get more than four picks right this week, but we’re going to try anyway!

Vegas Insider went and made their consensus spreads a pay dealy. Since I haven’t been paid by this website lately (with the recent record it’s tough to blame them), we’ll use the BetMGM odds as of early Wednesday afternoon this week.

Thursday, December 22

Jacksonville at NY Jets (-1)

Many laughed when the schedules came out and Amazon got Jaguars at Jets on 12/22.

Well, here we are, and it’s one of the best games of Week 16.

The NFL never ceases to amaze.

— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) December 19, 2022

Don’t act like you saw this coming. Everybody was laughing at this game as part of the poop show Amazon’s been airing on their streaming service for most of this season. Some have speculated Al Michaels would be forced into retirement, I’m pretty sure he checked out somewhere around Week 3 and has been “present” ever since. Al might want to wake up for this one, as somehow both of these teams are right in the playoff hunt. The Jets are a game out of the wild card while the Jags are a game behind the Titans in the AFC South.

One of these teams will give themselves an opportunity to move up while the other will move down. It’s exceptionally tough to call this, since both teams are known for not taking advantage of situations. The Jaguars are the hotter team right now, so I have to give them the edge.

Saturday, December 24

Atlanta at Baltimore (-7.5)

Ian Rapoport: Lamar Jackson is expected back to practice this upcoming week and the Ravens are “hopeful” he’ll start against the Falcons pic.twitter.com/AikXtSGuVE

— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) December 17, 2022

Let’s be honest: the Ravens without Lamar Jackson just aren’t going to get it done. They still might slither their way into the playoffs, but they won’t be going anywhere. The sooner he gets back, the better their chances. We’re hearing he’s supposed to be back this week, but he wasn’t practicing on Tuesday. Hopefully for the Ravens’ sake he’ll be back…even if he is, the Falcons should be a tough team for them to beat.

NY Giants at Minnesota (-4)

The #Vikings are calling for a WINTER WHITEOUT on Saturday against the #Giants ❄️⚪️ Spread the word…leave the purple gear at home and wear white instead! #skol pic.twitter.com/BRpeOa724q

— Vikings Nation (@vikingsnationmn) December 19, 2022

Minnesota could win the rest of their games, including the Super Bowl, and people would still be out here telling us that the Vikings are the most overrated champions in the history of football. They just refuse to give in on this “overrated” talking point. Even after the Vikings came back from a 33-0 halftime deficit to defeat the Colts in overtime, these experts were still knocking the Vikings. They shouldn’t have been down 33-0, by gum! All I know is that these guys keep finding ways to win, usually involving the likes of Justin Jefferson & Dalvin Cook.

The Giants do have Saquon Barkley, but I don’t think they have the defense that would allow Daniel Jones to keep up with the Vikings‘ offense.

New Orleans at Cleveland (-2.5)

Saints – Browns total down to 32.5 because… oh my pic.twitter.com/xNmqFtTC8E

— Brad Spielberger, Esq. (@PFF_Brad) December 20, 2022

Neither of these teams have scored a large amount of points lately. There isn’t any reason to expect that trend to change on Saturday, nor is there any reason to expect the Saints to suddenly start playing good on the road. It’ll be another struggle for Deshaun Watson, but expect the Browns to win on the strength of their rushing attack.

Buffalo (-9.5) at Chicago

“Being acclimated to the cold should give the Chicago Bears a distinct advantage over any awww crap nevermind…” pic.twitter.com/L6vuw7yfj4

— Bill Smafia (@KevinBuffalo) December 20, 2022

9.5 is a lot of points in the NFL, no doubt about it. It’s not that many points for the Bills against a Bears team that’s lost seven straight games, even if Justin Fields is apparently the future of the league. The Bills have clinched a playoff spot, but need to keep winning to ensure the #1 seed in the AFC. It’ll be cold this weekend, but we know that Josh Allen is immune to things like that.

Seattle at Kansas City (-10)

A lot going on the world but everyone take a moment to look up the Chiefsaholic fan who funded his trips to games by robbing banks in the same mask he wore to games. I’ve never been prouder to root for the Chiefs. pic.twitter.com/0eqIBEY1kn

— Kyle Ayers (@kyleayers) December 19, 2022

The Seahawks have lost four out of their last five games and seem to be on their way out of the NFC playoff picture. The Chiefs are keeping opponents in games, but have still won seven out of their last eight. The question isn’t if the Chiefs will win, it’s if they’ll win by 10 points. I think we’ll see another opponent hang around, and the Seahawks end up being one of those teams that’ll make it somewhat close late.

Cincinnati (-3) at New England

December 20, 1970
#Bengals beat #Patriots 45-7 winning AFC Central Division first year in NFL, after AFL merger. On to Baltimore for playoffs!

🏈 Sam Wyche w 2 TD's
🏈 Ken Riley w 2 INT's #CincinnatiFootballHistory

pic.twitter.com/utpcbLPL4v

— Bengal Jim’s BTR (@bengaljims_BTR) December 20, 2022

Everybody saw the ending to the Patriots vs. Raiders game in Week 16. One of the most ridiculous plays we will ever see. That part didn’t bother me so much. Mistakes happen. The thing that would worry me if I was a Patriots fan was Bill Belichick’s reaction during his postgame press conference. See, the Bill Belichick I know wouldn’t waste time explaining what happened. He would just say he was on to Cincinnati, and that would be that. Now, he’s telling the media that his quarterback can’t throw the ball far enough. What? Maybe Mac Jones couldn’t have thrown the ball 55 yards at the end of that game, but it’s not something that needs to be advertised to the free world. Rookie mistake by a guy that’s been coaching longer than anybody reading this column has been alive.

Yes, I still think the Patriots rebound here and this feels like a 3-point game either way to me, but I’m not liking what I’m seeing from the Death Star. I still think beating Brady & Belichick in consecutive weeks is too good to be true, but you won’t hear the end of it from Bengals fans if it does happen.

Detroit (-2.5) at Carolina

After starting the season 1-6, the Lions are now 7-7 and sniffing around for a playoff spot @BSMotorCity pic.twitter.com/x4YgL7sBYU

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) December 18, 2022

We made the mistake of believing in the Panthers last week. We won’t make that mistake this week against a Lions team that’s won three straight and are on the road to winning six straight and making the playoffs. The Lions have been strong on offense all season, but it’s their defense that’s made the difference lately. Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker or whoever else the Panthers run out there won’t do enough to keep the Panthers in the NFC South hunt. Run with the Lions.

Houston at Tennessee (-4)

Yeah if you hate 70s style football, then don’t watch Texans/#Titans this weekend.

Temps in the low 20s, both teams struggle throwing the ball, it’s gonna be a nasty game.

— TreJean Watkins (@TreWatkins099) December 19, 2022

The Titans have lost four straight and made the AFC South somewhat of a race between themselves & the Jaguars. Losing four straight isn’t fun, but losing nine straight is even less fun. The Texans did manage to take the Chiefs to overtime last week, and were close to upsetting the mighty Cowboys last week too. I liked the Texans earlier in the week when the number was a bit higher than four. Now, I find myself buying into the Titans.

Washington at San Francisco (-7)

For Commanders week, a look back at the 49ers’ 2019 mud-soaked win in Washington, when the local announcer got offended at SF’s slip-n-slide celebration.

“They’re looking like a bunch of fools out there!” 🧂🧂🧂pic.twitter.com/gMzcZQpCLP

— KNBR (@KNBR) December 19, 2022

The Commanders are hanging on for their playoff lives after a loss to the Giants last week. Good thing they had that tie, that could come in handy at the end of the season when the tiebreakers shake out. The issue this week is they’re playing a 49ers team that’s won seven straight games and has shut down a ton of offenses in the process. Washington’s struggles on offense lately lead me to believe that you can trust the 49ers at this number.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-4.5)

Gardner Minshew’s first start following Mike Leach’s passing? Blackout unis against the Cowboys? Let the pirate flag fly. Give me the Eagles moneyline. pic.twitter.com/helVAW05EY

— NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) December 19, 2022

Jalen Hurts’ stranglehold on the MVP was already being chipped at by critics that think that the Eagles offense is one of those system offenses that anybody can do well with. Now that he’s injured, Patrick Mahomes has surged ahead in the futures odds. As I write this on Wednesday afternoon, there’s no clear answer as to whether Hurts will play, or if it’ll be Gardner Minshew riding into Dallas to face a Cowboys team that managed to blow a multi-touchdown lead in Jacksonville last week.

The higher the number Dallas is favored by, the more I like the Eagles. The Cowboys should still make the playoffs, but they’re definitely doing that thing they usually do at the end of a season.

Las Vegas at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Looks like Steelers-Raiders tickets can be had as low as $25. Christmas Eve, 5 degrees, 8:15, windy, 6-8. Only so much the Immaculate Anniversary can do, I suppose.

— Brian Batko (@BrianBatko) December 19, 2022

The NFL had already gone into overdrive hyping this prime time game as an ode to the anniversary of the “Immaculate Reception”. Not that it’s something Raider fans were terribly interested in celebrating, but it is one of the plays that changed the course of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Most of us don’t remember this (hell, I don’t remember this), but there was a point where the Steelers were one of the most inept franchises in the history of the NFL. 1972 was the first winning season the Steelers had since 1963. Pittsburgh hadn’t been to a playoff since 1947, and they’d never won a league championship since entering the NFL in 1933. 1972 would be the start of eight straight playoff berths resulting in four Super Bowl victories, and the start of the Pittsburgh Steelers becoming one of America’s favorite bandwagon teams.

All because of Franco Harris. Oh, by the way, Harris passed away this week at the age of 72. I can’t believe the NFL, they even script their famous player deaths to play into their current storylines. It’s simply amazing. If I had considered picking the Raiders due to their fortitutious victory over New England last week, there’s no way I can consider it now. It should be close, but Kenny Pickett’s return should help lead the Steelers to an “emotional” victory over their 1970s rivals.

Sunday, December 25

Green Bay at Miami (-4)

Dolphins & Packers play Christmas Day in Miami, that’d be a nice afternoon outing w/ all the kids 🏈

— Chad Johnson (@ochocinco) December 19, 2022

The Dolphins were on top of the AFC East fairly recently, but a three-game losing streak has clinched that particular title for the Bills. The good news for the Dolphins? All of those games were on the road. Now they get to go home to Miami for Christmas, and Jolly ol’ Saint Nick is giving them the Green Bay Packers. Aaron “Nothingburger” Rodgers & the Packers are hanging on to playoff hopes by a thread at 6-8, but still have a pretty good shot at getting in if they can run the table.

The Packers put on a pretty good defensive show on Monday night, but it’s going to be tougher in Miami against a superior offense. The Dolphins should win by a touchdown or so.

Denver (-2.5) at LA Rams

If you want to watch Broncos/Rams over Bucks/Celtics, there’s nothing the NBA can do. https://t.co/QHesj1D1tU

— Carrington Harrison (@cdotharrison) December 19, 2022

Here’s the problem: This is going to be the Nickelodeon regular season game of the season, complete with fun special effects, people getting slimed, Spongebob in the field goal, stuff like that. You’d prefer to have a high-scoring game on the channel, as that lends itself to more slime & fun. A defensive struggle like this one should be? Not as fun for the kiddies.

The Broncos do seem to be making a late-season push. They’re already eliminated from the playoff picture, but they can at least try to build on something for 2023, which they hope will be what 2022 was supposed to be. I like them here against a Rams team whose Bakermania magic already seems to have run out.

Tampa Bay (-6.5) at Arizona

Bucs Cardinals line just keeps moving in the right direction!

Do you honestly think I’m NOT betting on something called Trace McSorley?

— Jordan Richards (@ajd1224) December 20, 2022

The Buccaneers have given us plenty of reason to pick against them, but the Cardinals have been downright abysmal for a month now. I wouldn’t want any reason to bother with this game on Christmas night, but if you’re a degenerate and don’t know anything about the NBA, go ahead and throw some money on Tom Brady.

Monday, December 26

LA Chargers (-4) at Indianapolis

“Next week on Monday Night Football: Chargers vs. Colts!”

pic.twitter.com/gkP74Auyz4

— Barstool Indy (@barstoolindy) December 20, 2022

Speaking of games I wouldn’t want any reason to bother with. The Colts are just a complete dumpster fire at this point. They did manage to get within 3.5 of the Vikings last week, but were on the business end of the biggest comeback in NFL history. I would say it’ll be interesting to see how the Colts come back from that, but I’d be lying. I couldn’t care less. The Chargers are making that postseason push and shaping up to be a dangerous first round opponent if enough of their offensive weapons are healthy, so roll with them.

Week 15 Results: 4-11-1
Overall Results: 103-115-7