Cook’s 2021 NFL Gambling Picks: Week 10

Hi, hello & welcome to Week 10 of the National Football League! Week 9 was one of those weeks where you’re reminded that you really don’t know anything about this league. Teams that were supposedly in turmoil and on the verge of ruin came back strong & showed themselves to be contenders. Teams that were considered contenders screwed the pooch. Quarterbacks that typically give you tons of fantasy points didn’t give you anything. Lots of crazy things happened, which is exactly why we come back every week looking for more.

Somehow, after the dust settled, we had a winning record here last week. Not getting far enough above .500 on these winning weeks though, which is making it tougher to get back to .500 overall. Lots of work to do, so let’s get to it.

Thursday, November 11

Baltimore (-7.5) at Miami

The Ravens have beaten the Dolphins in eight of their last nine matchups

In their last three games (all Baltimore wins), the Ravens have outscored Miami 137-16, which comes out to an average of 40.3 points per game

2016: BAL 38 – MIA 6
2017: BAL 40 – MIA 0
2019: BAL 59 – MIA 10

— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) November 9, 2021

The Ravens are a much better team on paper than the Dolphins in any area one could possibly think of. I mean, if you can come up with an advantage for Miami here, I’d like to hear it. Cause I got nothing. There is no reason why this shouldn’t be a lopsided game in favor of the Ravens.

Other than it’s Thursday night and weird things happen. I’m sticking with the better team, but we can’t completely rule out some foolishness.

Sunday, November 14

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-10.5)

Referee for Jaguars at Colts — Tony Corrente
https://t.co/S6O1AYeSR5 #JAXvsIND pic.twitter.com/UL3Bw1PhH2

— Fᴏᴏᴛʙᴀʟʟ Zᴇʙʀᴀs (@footballzebras) November 9, 2021

Congratulations to the Jags on winning last week. I know we’re all feeling the urge to buy some Jacksonville stock now and act like they’re a halfway decent football team. Tempting, I know. Let’s not get crazy though. The Colts are still the smart pick here, no need to over-react due to one result. Now, if Urban Meyer’s bunch of miscreants do something this week, then we can re-assess things.

Cleveland at New England (-2.5)

“Sources saying Odell Beckham Jr. will sign with the New England Patriots”

The source: pic.twitter.com/0V2jSXeKpf

— Howard Sparks (@howardjsparks) November 10, 2021

The Patriots have not signed Odell Beckham as of my writing this, which would have made things much more interesting. The Browns showed a lot against Cincinnati in a game they needed to win to keep things afloat. It’s tempting to over-react and crown the Browns as the same playoff favorite they were in the pre-season, but I’m here to tell you to pump the brakes. The Patriots are made of sterner stuff than the Bengals, and there’s no rivalry aspect here other than Bill Belichick getting a kick out of beating the team that fired him so long ago.

Atlanta at Dallas (-9.5)

Dallas Cowboys DC Dan Quinn has no time to talk whimsically about his team with the Atlanta Falcons, Sunday's opponent: “You guys saw the performance yesterday. I’d say we don’t have time for a trip down memory lane, we’ve got shit to fix.”#DallasCowboys

— Clarence Hill Jr (@clarencehilljr) November 8, 2021

Dallas fans definitely shouldn’t over-react to what we saw last week. They laid an egg against the Broncos. It happens. They’re still the best team in the NFC East and have an easy path to the playoffs barring an insane amount of injuries like they had in 2020. Atlanta fans probably shouldn’t over-react to their team’s comeback win over the Saints…but they’re better than what they showed the first few weeks of the season. I don’t think the Falcons win, but they should keep it close.

Buffalo (-12.5) at NY Jets

The best penalty call of all time. Bills-Jets, 1986.

“After he tackled the quarterback, he’s giving him the business down there.” pic.twitter.com/M4Dt7Vrdhr

— Tony (@tonyarnoldine) November 9, 2021

Sometimes, a team needs a ridiculously bad loss to get their heads right. The Buffalo Bills have had things too easy here in 2021. They’ve had the opportunity to play some weak teams and run up their win count. At some point, they needed to face some adversity. We didn’t know it would come from the Jacksonville Jaguars, but that’s a thing that happened. They lost, 6-9. Nice. That seems like the punch in the face this team needed, and now they go to New Jersey to face a Jets team that…well, has actually looked good on offense since Mike White took over.

Bills win, but Jets cover. We need this Mike White thing to keep going so Jets fans in the media lose their minds over Zach Wilson being forced to sit on the bench when he’s healthy.

New Orleans at Tennessee (-3)

The Titans have won 5 straight games, the last 4 of which have come vs playoff teams from 2020

They're the 4th team in last 15 seasons to win 4 straight games, all vs playoff teams from previous season

The previous 3 all made the Super Bowl (2009 Saints, GB in 2010, NE in 2011) pic.twitter.com/DKomUFqP5h

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 8, 2021

Would Titans fans be over-reacting if they thought their team was the best in the AFC right now? Maybe not! You’d prefer them to have Derrick Henry at their disposal, but the Titans still got the job done against the Rams. It’s tempting to think they’ll regress this week, and the Saints definitely will be looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the Falcons. I think we need to give the Titans their proper respect and assume they’ll get things done against Trevor Siemian.

Tampa Bay (-9.5) at Washington

"I like the way he plays."

Bucs HC Bruce Arians and LB Lavonte David had positive things to say about Washington QB Taylor Heinicke ahead of Sunday's Wild Card rematchhttps://t.co/7uNvGYW31r

— Ethan Cadeaux (@Ethan_Cadeaux) November 9, 2021

I totally forgot that the Washington Football Team made the playoffs last year. What a world, huh? Tom Brady lost a football game and will have two weeks to think about it. The Buccaneers will make the Football Team pay for others’ sins.

Detroit at Pittsburgh (-9)

Tomlin on playing the 0-8 Lions: "There are no FCS games. There are no Group of Five games. There are no homecomings. Each and every week, you're up against paid professionals.” #Steelers

— Blitzburgh 🦃 (@BlitzVideos) November 9, 2021

The best thing about Monday night’s game? Chicago fans (and fans all across the nation) finally saw what I’ve been saying about the Steelers all these years on full display. They finally get it. The NFL is in Pittsburgh’s back pocket and always has been. People want to tell me I’m wrong, but Monday night we saw referees hip-checking Chicago Bears and calling penalties to benefit the Steelers. What else do you need?

The Steelers won’t need that kind of help this week.

Minnesota at LA Chargers (-3)

Most Games Decided by 7 or Fewer Points Since Start of 2020:

1. Los Angeles Chargers (17)
2. Minnesota Vikings (16)

think Sunday's game will go down to the wire?

— Dustin Baker (@DustBaker) November 9, 2021

We know this is going to be close, because all these teams ever do is play in close games. A push seems like the right call to me, but we’re going to roll with the Chargers simply because they have more talent. 4-5 points seems about right.

Carolina at Arizona (-10.5)

The #Panthers have won their last five matchups versus the Arizona Cardinals:

2015 | 27-16 (Wild Card Playoffs)
2016 | 49-15 (NFC Championship)
2017 | 30-20 at Home
2019 | 38-20 at Arizona
2020 | 31-21 at Home

— Michael Rimmer (@AVL_Mike) November 9, 2021

Speaking of teams that deserve our respect, the Cardinals have only lost to Aaron Rodgers. They’ve taken care of everybody else. The Panthers have been brutal since Week 3, and there’s no reason to think that Matt Barkley or PJ Walker will change that.

Seattle at Green Bay (-3)

The two worst PFF graded special teams units in the NFL

Green Bay Packers (53.6)
Seattle Seahawks (56.4)

Oh… next week is gonna be fun!

— Alexander Basara 🇵🇱🐺 (@Basaraski) November 8, 2021

Is Aaron Rodgers playing? That’s what you need to know when picking this game. If so, the Packers will win handily. If not, you need to pick the Seahawks. For the purposes of the overall record, I’ll go with the Packers since it seems more likely that Rodgers will play.

Hey, the guy might have proven to be somewhat questionable off the field. Unless he forgot how to play football since that win in Arizona, we can’t question him on the field. At least not until the playoffs…

Philadelphia at Denver (-2.5)

#Broncos signing OT Casey Tucker to practice squad per source (Bolles and Massie currently injured). It appears Tucker was most recently on Eagles practice squad.

— Ryan O'Halloran (@ryanohalloran) November 9, 2021

Every week there’s at least one game with two teams I don’t know what to make of. This would be this week’s edition of that game. I have no idea whether the Eagles are bad or somewhat good. Same with Denver. I don’t think either of these teams are really good, but they might be somewhat good. Maybe. Tough to say.

We’ll pick the Broncos because their defense seems to be effective. At least this week. We’ll see what happens next week.

Kansas City (-2.5) at Las Vegas

Hell hath no fury like the Chiefs & #Raiders.

Hunt vs Davis blood war trickled
to the coaches, players and fanatics. 🏴‍☠️🏈🖕 pic.twitter.com/nuy8YRe8si

— AFL Godfather🏴‍☠️👓🏈 (@NFLMAVERICK) November 9, 2021

Two teams that have never liked each other as far back as I can remember. You gotta love some good ol’ fashioned hate. As up & down as the Raiders have been, I hate the idea of trusting the Chiefs at this point. Bad defense, not very good offense, you can’t expect me to pick them on the road against a halfway decent team. The Raiders should be motivated on SUNDAY NIGHT IS FOOTBALL NIGHT.

Monday, November 15

LA Rams (-4) at San Francisco

George Kittle on returning to face Cardinals/Rams and what those games mean to 49ers:
"Back to back 7-1 teams, it sets the stage for us. We’ll either come out with a winning record or in a hole. It definitely shapes the season. These are going to be tough, grinding, gritty games"

— Cam Inman (@CamInman) November 4, 2021

The Rams got a pretty good buttkicking last Sunday night. They’ll give one this Monday night. Good teams rebound from adversity and take it out on their opponents. The 49ers are not a good team and I’m throwing in the towel for those people that had Super Bowl aspirations for them. We all make mistakes, it’s ok.

Last Week’s Results: 8-6
Overall Results: 61-72-3