Hi, hello & welcome to Super Wild Card Weekend! We’ve managed to add two extra games to this round, and one of them is going to be on Monday night. I’m sure whoever wins won’t complain when they get a short week against their opponent in the Divisional Round. At this point in the season, complaining is somewhat limited as long as you’re still playing.

Yep, I’m still playing too. Even though the regular season didn’t go as hoped, nobody from The Chairshot told me to gather my belongings. You might have expected to see me out on the street with Joe Judge, Matt Nagy and the rest, but I’m still here doing my thing. Let’s get to it. Odds are from Vegas Insider.

Saturday, January 15

Las Vegas at Cincinnati (-5.5)

The Bengals-Raiders Wild Card game will feature the three top players in QB pressures according to NFL Next Gen:
Crosby, LV — 82
Hendrickson, CIN — 79
Ngakoue, LV — 71

— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) January 12, 2022

I’m not here to make excuses for my poor regular season performance. However, I can’t help but feel that my constantly picking against my favorite team in an attempt to get some good mojo going had a bit of an effect on things. Again, not making excuses, I should have been able to make up more points on other games. It’s an aspect of the strategy that we’ll have to analyze during the off-season.

In any event, the Bengals are coming full-circle here. Unless you’ve been living under a rock you’ve heard at some point about the 31-year playoff losing streak they’re on. You’ve also heard about how the first loss came to the Los Angeles Raiders in a game where Bo Jackson suffered a career-ending hip injury. It’s one of those memories from the good ol’ days that I can’t forget. Cincinnati sports media is telling us to forget all about the Curse of Bo Jackson, or Carson Palmer’s knee, or any other of the calamities that have be-fallen the Bengals during this stretch. Now that Joe Burrow is the quarterback, things are different.

Hey, I hope they’re right! If anybody seems to have the stuff necessary to get this franchise over the hump, it’s Burrow. His calmness combined with a lack of time for failure & ability to connect with everybody in the room has made him a great leader. Along with his superior football-playing ability, of course. Burrow’s got everybody to buy in, so much so that the Bengals are the favorites in a playoff game a year after winning four games and two years after winning two games. Pretty heady stuff.

Of course you know I’m picking the Raiders, so let’s touch on them for a minute. As much as nobody believed in the Bengals up to this point, nobody believed in the Raiders either. The fact they’ve made it this far is downright astounding with everything they’ve been through this season. It’s a nice story. I wish it wasn’t going up against my Bengals, but such is life. A brief glance at their Week 11 meeting shows a 19-point victory for the Bengals, but it was much closer than that. The Raiders were only down 16-13 early in the fourth quarter. The Raiders shut down the Bengals for the first half, shutting down their passing game & running game by creating pressure. The Bengals eventually got the advantage by sticking with the strategy of running Joe Mixon down Vegas’s throats, and he wore them down. Burrow only threw for 148 yards & a touchdown in that game. If Vegas can keep him closer to those numbers than the video game numbers he posted against Baltimore & Kansas City, they should be able to go into Paul Brown Stadium and come out with a win.

Everybody will tell you that nobody picked the Raiders, but you’ll know better.

New England at Buffalo (-4)

Patriots – Bills
8:15 kickoff Saturday

High 9°
Low 1°

— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) January 11, 2022

I had the opportunity to work at this game, at least until the trip got cancelled. Doing anything in those types of temperatures doesn’t sound like a good time to me, and throwing the ball deep probably won’t be fun either. I’m with Mina Kimes on the whole “Buffalo should build a dome” thing. Bills fans would hate it because they love being miserable, but Josh Allen and that Bills offense would be darn near unstoppable. Ain’t like Buffalo’s ownership is lacking for money, right? Forbes (a trustworthy publication if I’ve ever heard of one) says that Terry Pegula’s wealth has grown by $2 billion in the past two years. Why not use it to build a dome?

The Bills do seem to be getting things together, riding a four game winning streak into the playoffs. Three of those games were at home, the other one was in New England where they beat the Patriots by twelve. Doesn’t bode particularly well for Coach Belichick, does it? The Patriots are ahead of schedule anyway, so there’s no reason to worry about them. The Bills should be able to win by a touchdown.

Sunday, January 16

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (-8.5)

Since #Eagles fans are obsessed with Tom Brady not shaking Nick Foles’ hand after SB52, I finally asked him about it because the #Buccaneers host Philly on Sunday. “I have a lot of respect for Nick. I try to be a good sport as best I can…” Brady’s full response 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/ozB5A8kFeE

— Rob Maaddi (@RobMaaddi) January 13, 2022

I don’t think I’ve seen an Eagles game this season. I can’t name any Eagles other than Jalen Hurts & the Reagor wide receiver guy that Eagles fans spend all their time complaining about. Heck, since Doug Pederson left I can’t even name Philly’s head coach. This might be the quietest team to make the playoffs, which makes them dangerous when you think about it.

There isn’t anything quiet about the Buccaneers. Everything they do is live & in public for the whole world to see. Theoretically, there are distractions out the yin yang. This would affect most NFL teams, but I don’t think the Buccaneers are one of those teams that get easily distracted. They’re either uber-focused like Tom Brady, or in that place where distractions don’t matter, like Rob Gronkowski.

You know full well that we don’t bet against Tom Brady, especially in the playoffs. However, if you’re going to give me the Eagles at 8.5 points…we can make that work. Especially since Tampa’s pretty banged up.

San Francisco at Dallas (-3)

49ers at Cowboys Sunday on CBS pic.twitter.com/y28La0y5JW

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) January 10, 2022

Yep, this is the playoff football I grew up on. The early to mid 1990s NFC was all about 49ers vs. Cowboys. Steve Young, Jerry Rice, Deion Sanders, Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, the names went on and on. With the Bengals winning three games every year, the Cowboys were a fun team to watch as a bandwagon fan. It was also pretty easy to root against the 49ers, their defeating the Bengals in two Super Bowls during the 1980s was fresh in everybody’s minds. Of course these teams had some notable meetings before I was born. Something about a catch? Even if these franchises haven’t attained that success in recent years, this matchup still means something to people of a certain age.

It’ll mean something to the kids too, since this is the Nickelodeon game and will have slime & Spongebob and all sorts of good times. As for who will have good times on the field, it’s tough to bet against the 49ers right now. They’re one of the hottest teams in the league with Deebo Samuel making big plays, the running game looking good & the defensive line shutting people down. Dallas hasn’t looked as good of late, though they were pretty solid against the Eagles B team. At the end of the day, the Cowboys still strike me as a team that comes up short in big situations, and I think they’ll come up short here.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-12.5)

Report: Sunday night’s game between the Steelers and Chiefs has been postponed, will be a dance off between JuJu Smith-Schuster and Jackson Mahomes. Winner moves on.

— Jordan Cicchelli (@jordancicchelli) January 12, 2022

These teams just met in Week 16, and the Chiefs beat the Steelers 36-10 in a game that really wasn’t that close. What’s happened since then to make things different?

-The Steelers won their next two games over division rivals, making their way into the playoffs with some help from their friends in Jacksonville. They didn’t look overly impressive in either game, but did enough to win.
-The Chiefs narrowly lost to the Bengals, then narrowly defeated the Broncos. Two games that could have easily gone either way with one or two plays going the opposite direction. They didn’t look like the Chiefs we saw locked while they were blowing out the Raiders & Steelers.

Add in the fact this is a postseason game and there’s no way the Steelers are getting blown out this time. Mind you, this is another one where I would love to be wrong. I’ll be rooting for the Chiefs to send Pittsburgh out of the playoffs & Ben Roethlisberger home for good, and there’s a better than 50% chance they’ll do just that. It’s gonna be closer than people think.

Monday, January 17

Arizona at LA Rams (-4)

Reminder: Cardinals play at Rams in Wild Card Game on *MONDAY* pic.twitter.com/xJYR4D2YIp

— Mark Dalton (@CardsMarkD) January 12, 2022

Two teams that have been on different trajectories of late. The Cardinals lost four out of their last five games while the Rams had been on a five game winning streak before losing to San Francisco. The road team has won each of these games, so either you think that’s a trend or you think “well jeez, a home team has to win at some point”. Most of us made that mistake last week with the idea of the Colts having to win in Jacksonville at some point.

I think the Rams are going to win this game with Cooper Kupp making some type of amazing play because that’s what he does. However, it’s the playoffs, it’s prime time, and it has to be close. So take the Cardinals and the points.

Week 18 Results: 8-8

Regular Season Results: 127-141-4