Cook’s 2021-22 NFL Gambling Picks: Super Bowl LVI

Hi, hello & welcome to Super Bowl LVI speculation! I’m Steve Cook, and I’m in a bit of an unfamiliar position here. In years past when I’ve done Super Bowl predictions & projections, I haven’t had any skin in the game. My Cincinnati Bengals are typically done for the season long before early February hits. Usually, I’m watching the Super Bowl as an impartial observer that doesn’t really care which team wins. This year, I have some interest.

Before we make the official Super Bowl LVI Against The Spread pick, we’ll look at some of the prop bets. Nothing in the world has more prop bets than the Super Bowl. Most of them are pretty ridiculous. I mean, we’re really betting on whether singers are going to show some cleavage? (Take “Yes” on that one, LA’s going to have some record heat on Sunday.)

Odds via BetOnline & Vegas Insider!

Super Bowl MVP:

• Matthew Stafford: +115
• Joe Burrow: +225
• Cooper Kupp: +600
• Ja’Marr Chase: +1600
• Aaron Donald: +1600
• Joe Mixon: +2500
• Odell Beckham Jr.: +2500
• Cam Akers: +3000
• Tee Higgins: +5000
• Von Miller: +5000
• Sony Michel: 6600
• All others: +10000 or above

We all know that quarterbacks are the most likely Super Bowl MVPs, so Stafford & Burrow are the most likely to win it. As far as a less likely option goes? If Jalen Ramsey (+10000) shuts down Ja’Marr Chase and gets an INT in the process? He’d be my pick, and the best pick to get some money on. Von Miller might be a good pick at (+5000) since the voters know who he is.

Will the Super Bowl field goal record of 54 yards be broken?

• No: -320
• Yes: +210

Evan McPherson has made four field goals in each of the Bengals’ playoff games. This includes three over fifty yards. His longest field goal during the regular season was 58 yards. It’s definitely within the realm of possibility for him to get it done, so throw some money on Yes.

Largest Lead

• Over 14.5 (+100)
• Under 14.5 (-130)

You might think this will be a close game, and it could end up being one. But we’ve seen both the Bengals & Rams come back from double digit deficits during the playoffs. We’ve also seen the Bengals & the Rams have double digit leads, only for their opponents to manage to tie the game. So it wouldn’t surprise me at all if one of these teams got out to a big lead, only to see their opponent come back. Take the over.

Overtime Odds

• Yes (+950)
• No (-2000)

We’ve only had two overtime games in these playoffs, both involving the Kansas City Chiefs. One of them also involved the Bengals, so Yes might be worth throwing a few bucks on just in case it happens.

Over/Under: 48.5

I’m liking the under here. We’re talking about two teams without a ton of Super Bowl experience. Will the moment get too big for some of these players? Maybe playing at home helps the Rams like it helped the Bucs last year, but it’s still the Super Bowl.

Sunday, February 13

LA Rams (-4) vs. Cincinnati

Will the Bengals be able to slow down the Rams pass rush this Sunday?#SBLVI pic.twitter.com/U5jwhlUfh6

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) February 9, 2022

Blank Park Zoo tiger Misha picks the LA Rams over the Bengals. Both team logos were scented with the same perfume so as not to influence the decision. Blank Park Zoo’s animals have been correct in picking the winner 8 of the last 11 Big Games. PHOTOS:https://t.co/DdxBxNPEgU pic.twitter.com/mwKa0iCBCR

— Meg McLaughlin (@MegMcLaughlinDA) February 10, 2022

Per @betonline_ag
America rooting for #Bengals
State Breakdown
Bengals: 33 states
Rams: 17 states pic.twitter.com/rHu1NJqVHe

— Lance McAlister (@LanceMcAlister) February 8, 2022

The Rams (12-5) and Bengals (10-7) combined to go 22-12 (.647) during the regular season, the worst combined win pct in a Super Bowl matchup, ever.

It’s the 7th matchup featuring teams with a combined win pct below .700. pic.twitter.com/oWzr3S1Vsh

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) February 9, 2022

The best argument for the Bengals just might be their inexperience. They’re the youngest team on average in Super Bowl history. They don’t know what they don’t know, which can be an advantage in big situations. Of course, Joe Burrow has plenty of experience leading teams in big situations, as we saw him lead LSU to a National Championship just before the pandemic started. His coolness has been a large part of the Bengals’ success so far, no matter what happens he doesn’t seem to get rattled. Of course, if there’s a time where something like that could happen, it might be one’s first Super Bowl.

The Rams defense worries me, as a Bengals fan. They have a couple of top-notch pass rushers in Aaron Donald & Von Miller. Tough to find faults in their games, and everybody else can capitalize off of being unnoticed. Joe Burrow might not mind being blitzed, but we all know that the main Bengals weakness is their offensive line.

Then the Rams have Jalen Ramsey working the cornerback position. He’ll have a lot of receivers to keep track of, but I feel like Ramsey Island is something for the Bengals offense to worry about, like Revis Island back in the day. If Ramsey can shut down Ja’Marr Chase, then Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd need to take advantage. Maybe they can, but here’s the difference: I don’t doubt that Cooper Kupp or Odell Beckham can take advantage off of whoever’s covered. The Bengals just don’t have that secondary depth.

If the Rams can get the same pressure on Joe Burrow that the Titans did, there’s no reason they shouldn’t win this game by at least a touchdown.

Thanks for reading, and enjoy Super Bowl LVI!