Greg DeMarco’s NFL Power Rankings – Week 4

The 49ers lead Greg DeMarco’s first 2026 NFL Power Rankings, followed by the Chiefs, Jaguars, Vikings and Bears. See where all 32 teams rank.

The time has come for something I have wanted to do for years…literal years. Several start/stop moments, but I finally put together the model for my power rankings. I can be a numbers guy, but stop short of a math nerd. But I also use my eyeballs, and that is why there are still “Power Rankings.”

Here’s how I am actually ranking these teams.

• Win percentage is the foundation because, ultimately, winning is what matters most in the NFL. It carries the greatest influence in our rankings, while the other factors help determine which teams are stronger than their records alone might suggest.
• Point differential measures how decisively a team has performed across the season, using its average scoring margin with an overall cap of 17 points in either direction. That rewards dominant teams while preventing extreme blowouts from carrying too much weight.
• Adjusted Strength of Schedule measures the quality of the opponents a team has faced based on their combined winning percentage. To keep a team from artificially weakening its own schedule by beating those opponents, I exclude every game those opponents played against the team being ranked.
• Points Per 100 Yards, or PP100, measures how many total points a team scores for every 100 offensive yards it gains. Because those points can come from short fields, turnovers, defensive scores and special teams as well as sustained offense, PP100 gives me a broader look at how efficiently the entire team turns opportunities into points.

Each category is measured against the league leader in that statistic, producing one overall Power Score that determines the rankings. The exact weighting is mine alone, but the goal is simple: reward winning first, then use dominance, competition and scoring efficiency to separate teams that the standings alone cannot.

Another important detail: the teams are placed into tiers–and I do “reserve the right” to move a team within a tier, and on the rarest occasion, allow a team to jump tiers. Like I said, this isn’t just “numbers,” I watch football with my eyes, too.

Overall listed score is out of 100.

1 – San Francisco 49ers (4-0, NFC West 1st) – 87.21

San Francisco has been the league’s most complete team through four weeks, combining the perfect record with the NFL’s best point differential. The 49ers have earned the top spot without needing any benefit of the doubt…no losses…no sacks of QB Brock Purdy. Can they keep this up?

2 – Kansas City Chiefs (4-0, AFC West 1st) – 83.83

Kansas City remains perfect and has done it against a stronger schedule than either San Francisco or Minnesota. The Chiefs haven’t been quite as dominant by scoring margin as the 49ers, but 4-0 with Patrick Mahomes still feels exactly like 4-0 with Patrick Mahomes.

3 – Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1, AFC South 1st) – 79.61

Jacksonville actually falls just behind Minnesota in the raw score, but this is where the eyes get a vote. The Jaguars have a better point differential, a substantially stronger schedule and nearly identical scoring efficiency, so I’m comfortable moving them ahead within the tier.

4 – Minnesota Vikings (4-0, NFC North 1st) – 79.84

I’m not ready to call Minnesota a fraud, especially with Brian Flores overseeing a defense that continues to deliver. But the offense hasn’t scored enough for me to completely buy into the Vikings yet, so despite the perfect record, I need to see a little more.

5 – Chicago Bears (3-1, NFC North 2nd) – 75.42

Chicago has one of the league’s best point differentials and has done it against one of the stronger schedules in football. The points per 100  number is the only pillar keeping the Bears from pushing even closer to the teams above them.

There is a major break after Chicago, with nearly 10 points separating the Bears from the next team. The first five have created a legitimate upper class through Week 4; the next group has played well enough to matter, but there is already some separation between “very good” and “elite.” I moved the Jaguars above Minnesota, as the defense of the Vikings is holding things together. I am not necessarily higher or lower on either team, this is just how I see it after 4 weeks.

6 – Las Vegas Raiders (3-1, AFC West 2nd) – 65.72

Las Vegas narrowly missed knocking off Kansas City and has been extremely efficient at turning its offensive production into points. The schedule hasn’t been especially difficult yet, which keeps the Raiders from threatening the top tier.

7 – Seattle Seahawks (3-1, NFC West 2nd) – 62.88

Seattle continues to win while maintaining a strong scoring margin, but its early schedule has been one of the softer ones among the contenders. That makes the upcoming games especially important for determining how real this start is.

8 – Baltimore Ravens (3-1, AFC North T-1st) – 60.18

Baltimore hasn’t dominated the way we might expect, but the Ravens have still built a 3-1 record with positive marks across the board. Their slightly stronger schedule is enough to push them just ahead of the Bills.

9 – Buffalo Bills (3-1, AFC East 1st) – 59.84

Buffalo’s loss to New England keeps this from feeling like the start the Bills probably envisioned, but the efficiency remains excellent. Their schedule has been relatively forgiving so far, so there is still plenty for Buffalo to prove.

The gap to the next group is meaningful, but this is also where the rankings become much more fluid. These teams range from division leaders to .500 clubs with strong underlying numbers, and a single good or bad week could rearrange this entire tier.

10 – New York Giants (3-1, NFC East 1st) – 54.15

The Giants are 3-1 despite barely outscoring their opponents overall, which makes them one of the more fascinating teams in the rankings. Winning matters, but New York will need to create more separation on the scoreboard to hold this position. And that Quarterback situation scares the hell out of me.

11 – Carolina Panthers (2-2, NFC South T-1st) – 53.66

Carolina is the first team here whose underlying numbers look noticeably better than its record. A positive point differential and one of the league’s strongest early schedules make the Panthers a team the model likes more than the standings do. I can see Carolina climbing the rankings week over week.

12 – Cleveland Browns (3-1, AFC North T-1st) – 51.40

Cleveland keeps winning despite being outscored overall, which is a combination that deserves attention. The Browns have earned the 3-1 record, but their negative point differential keeps them behind Carolina despite having the extra victory.

13 – Dallas Cowboys (2-2, NFC East T-2nd) – 49.73

Dallas has been one of the NFL’s most efficient teams at turning yards into points, and that helps compensate for the .500 record. The Cowboys aren’t far from the next group above them if the wins start following the underlying production.

14 – Los Angeles Rams (2-2, NFC West 3rd) – 48.08

The highest ranked 3rd place team in the league, the Rams have played one of the most difficult schedules in football and came away from Philadelphia with a significant Week 4 win. Their unusually low points per 100 is what prevents the overall score from looking more impressive. Another team I could see making a climb in the coming weeks.

15 – Indianapolis Colts (2-2, AFC South 2nd) – 47.72

Indianapolis owns the best points per 100 in the league through four weeks, making the Colts one of the most interesting efficiency teams in football. But a neutral point differential and .500 record keep that statistic from carrying them any higher.

16 – Denver Broncos (2-2, AFC West 3rd) – 46.64

Nobody has faced a tougher adjusted schedule than Denver, which gives the Broncos plenty of context for their 2-2 start. The problem is a -5.00 point differential, and eventually Denver needs the difficult schedule to turn into better results rather than explanations.

Statistically, there is another natural break here. The next five teams are basically the league’s early-season middle class: all 2-2, all showing something useful, and all carrying at least one significant concern.

17 – Atlanta Falcons (2-2, NFC South T-1st) – 44.11

Atlanta’s 45-point performance against New Orleans caught my attention, and this looks like a different offense with Michael Penix Jr under center. If the Falcons stay relatively healthy, I think this is one of the teams most capable of climbing quickly as the statistical sample grows. I really wanted to bump the Falcons up after their Monday Night Football performance. And while I fully expect them to rise in the coming weeks, it was too soon to let someone jump tiers.

18 – Cincinnati Bengals (2-2, AFC North T-3rd) – 43.61

Cincinnati has a positive point differential despite the .500 record, but the Bengals have faced one of the league’s weakest schedules so far. Jacksonville provided a much more meaningful test, and Cincinnati came up short.

19 – New England Patriots (2-2, AFC East 2nd) – 42.91

Beating Buffalo on the road is easily New England’s most impressive result so far and changes the conversation around this team. The Patriots have also faced a difficult schedule, although their very poor scoring efficiency remains a major red flag.

20 – Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2, AFC North T-3rd) – 41.90

Pittsburgh sits almost exactly where a 2-2 team with a negative scoring margin probably should. The schedule has been difficult enough to offer some forgiveness, but not enough to erase what we’ve seen on the field.

21 – Detroit Lions (2-2, NFC North T-3rd) – 41.61

Detroit’s scoring efficiency is solid, but the Lions have been outscored overall and didn’t just lose to Carolina, they looked lost. There is enough offensive ability here to recover quickly, but right now Detroit looks much more ordinary than expected.

Then comes another substantial drop in score. The teams below this point either have significant flaws despite respectable records or have already started digging themselves a hole that the formula cannot ignore.

22 – Philadelphia Eagles (2-2, NFC East T-2nd) – 35.18

Philadelphia is .500, but a negative point differential and weak adjusted schedule are an ugly combination. Losing at home to the Rams only adds to the concern that this team has not been nearly as good as its reputation.

23 – New Orleans Saints (1-3, NFC South 3rd) – 27.99

New Orleans just got run over by Atlanta, but I’m giving the Saints the slight editorial edge over Green Bay within this tier. Their schedule has been significantly tougher, and their efficiency has actually been respectable despite the losses.

24 – Green Bay Packers (2-2, NFC North T-3rd) – 30.49

Yes, Green Bay has the better record and the higher raw score than New Orleans. But the Packers haven’t looked good, the -8.00 point differential is alarming, and I have real concerns about this defense.

25 – New York Jets (1-3, AFC East 3rd) – 26.86

The Jets have actually kept games more competitive than several teams around them, reflected by a much better point differential than most 1-3 clubs. But the schedule hasn’t been difficult enough to make one win feel like anything other than one win.

26 – Arizona Cardinals (1-3, NFC West 4th) – 25.96

Arizona has faced a challenging schedule and has produced respectable scoring efficiency, but the defense has allowed too much damage. At some point, a strong schedule stops being useful context if the losses continue piling up.

27 – Washington Commanders (1-3, NFC East 4th) – 22.12

Washington has a negative point differential approaching double digits per game and just got handled by Indianapolis. There isn’t much in the underlying profile suggesting the record is misleading.

There is a huge separation between Washington and the final five teams. These are not simply teams off to disappointing starts; through four weeks, the combination of record and underlying performance has put them in a distinct bottom tier.

28 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4, NFC South 4th) – 17.24

Tampa Bay is winless, but the Buccaneers have at least remained more competitive than most of the teams below them. A respectable schedule and manageable point differential give them the clearest path out of this tier.

29 – Houston Texans (0-4, AFC South T-3rd) – 10.69

Houston remains winless after allowing Dallas to leave with a 34-30 victory. The Texans haven’t been disastrous in any one category, but there also isn’t a single pillar giving the model much reason for optimism.

30 – Tennessee Titans (0-4, AFC South T-3rd) – 8.24

Tennessee competed with Baltimore but still left Week 4 without a win. A poor scoring margin combined with one of the league’s weaker PP100 marks makes the Titans’ position difficult to argue against.

31 – Los Angeles Chargers (0-4, AFC West 4th) – 6.59

The Chargers technically own the lowest raw score in the league, but I’m moving them ahead of Miami. If these two teams played this weekend, I would pick Los Angeles to win—and I would expect the Chargers to cover.

32 – Miami Dolphins (0-4, AFC East 4th) – 8.23

Miami’s brutal schedule is doing almost all the work keeping its raw score above Los Angeles. The Dolphins have been outscored by nearly 14 points per game, own the worst PP100 among the bottom teams, and losing De’Van Achane for the season only makes an already bleak outlook worse.

We are four weeks in, and we’re just getting started. The Kansas City Chiefs are sitting behind the San Francisco 49ers headed into an early bye week along with Carolina. But there’s still 14 weeks left in the regular season, 13 more games for every NFL team. Even rankings rooted in stags are open to scrutiny–let me know if you love them or hate them!

This report includes information from: NFL.com, StatMuse and The Chairshot’s original NFL Power Rankings statistical analysis.