Greg DeMarco’s NFL Power Rankings – Week 7

The Vikings take over No. 1 in Greg DeMarco’s Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, while the Bengals, Seahawks and Buccaneers surge and Carolina tumbles.

After another exciting week of NFL action…one that brings us a new #1 for the first time this season! Let’s see how it all shakes out!

Week 7 finally blew up the top of the rankings. Minnesota is the NFL’s last unbeaten team and takes over No. 1 after both San Francisco and Kansas City suffered their first losses, while Cincinnati and Seattle each rocketed six spots following statement wins over Baltimore and the Chiefs. Tampa Bay made the week’s biggest positive move, climbing seven places after a 43-13 demolition of Carolina, while the Panthers cratered 12 spots in the opposite direction. Baltimore also dropped six after getting routed by Cincinnati, and New England fell five despite a competitive loss to Chicago, making this one of the most volatile weeks we’ve had yet.

Now–onto the rankings!

Tier 1

1 – Minnesota Vikings (6-0, 1st NFC North, 92.36, +2)

Last week: Defeated Indianapolis, 16-10

Minnesota is now the NFL’s only undefeated team and takes over the top spot after both San Francisco and Kansas City lost. The Vikings aren’t blowing everyone out, but a perfect record, strong point differential and increasingly respectable schedule have created the most complete statistical profile in the league.

This week: Visiting the #9 Detroit Lions

The Vikings stand alone at the top, followed by a six-team group containing most of the other serious contenders through seven weeks.

Tier 2

2 – San Francisco 49ers (6-1, 1st NFC West, 85.92, -1)

Last week: Lost at Atlanta, 29-20

San Francisco finally took its first loss, and Atlanta did more than simply survive against the 49ers. One defeat doesn’t erase six wins or an excellent +8.29 average point differential, but Minnesota now has the cleaner argument for No. 1.

This week: Bye

3 – Kansas City Chiefs (5-1, 1st AFC West, 77.13, -1)

Last week: Lost at Seattle, 20-3

Kansas City suffered its first loss in ugly fashion, but I’m making one small adjustment from the statistical model and keeping the Chiefs ahead of Jacksonville. The strongest comparison is Denver: Kansas City beat the Broncos 31-10, while Jacksonville lost there 20-13. The Chiefs also own the better record, which is enough for me to make a one-spot move without ignoring what Jacksonville has accomplished.

This week: Visiting the #11 Denver Broncos

4 – Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2, 1st AFC South, 80.51, NC)

Last week: Bye

Jacksonville remains ahead of Buffalo because the Jaguars have been substantially more dominant against a tougher schedule. Their +8.33 average point differential is nearly double Buffalo’s +4.33, while Jacksonville’s .571 adjusted strength of schedule is 13 percentage points higher than Buffalo’s .441. That’s enough to keep the Jaguars fourth despite Buffalo owning the better record.

This week: Hosting the #26 Indianapolis Colts

5 – Buffalo Bills (5-1, 1st AFC East, 76.46, NC)

Last week: Bye

Buffalo remains 5-1 and leads the NFL in PP100 at 8.47, so there isn’t much wrong with the Bills’ profile. Jacksonville simply owns the stronger scoring margin and schedule at the moment, leaving Buffalo narrowly behind the Jaguars despite having one fewer loss.

This week: Hosting the #16 Baltimore Ravens

6 – Cincinnati Bengals (4-2, 3rd AFC North, 74.70, +6)

Last week: Defeated Baltimore, 35-13

Cincinnati is one of this week’s biggest movers after completely dismantling Baltimore. The Bengals now have a +6.83 average scoring margin, strong efficiency and four wins, giving the model considerably more confidence than it had just one week ago.

This week: Hosting the #31 Tennessee Titans

7 – Chicago Bears (5-2, 2nd NFC North, 73.40, -1)

Last week: Defeated New England, 30-24

Chicago keeps strengthening its résumé, adding New England to a growing list of credible victories. The Bears have five wins, a +5.29 point differential and a .550 adjusted schedule, so the early-season statistical promise is increasingly being backed up by results.

This week: Visiting the #8 Seattle Seahawks

There is a meaningful break after Chicago, but the next five teams remain very much in the playoff-quality middle of the rankings.

Tier 3

8 – Seattle Seahawks (4-3, 2nd NFC West, 68.95, +6)

Last week: Defeated Kansas City, 20-3

Seattle immediately erased much of the damage from its two-game skid by handing Kansas City its first loss in dominant fashion. Holding the Chiefs to three points gives the Seahawks a signature victory, while their +6.14 scoring margin remains one of the strongest in this part of the rankings.

This week: Hosting the #7 Chicago Bears

9 – Detroit Lions (4-2, 3rd NFC North, 65.80, NC)

Last week: Defeated Green Bay, 20-17

Detroit picked up an important divisional win and continues to pair a solid record with one of the league’s stronger PP100 numbers. The Lions’ two losses remain understandable—Buffalo and Carolina—but this week’s matchup gives them their biggest opportunity yet to change the NFC North race.

This week: Hosting the #1 Minnesota Vikings

10 – Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2, 2nd AFC North, 64.36, +1)

Last week: Defeated New Orleans, 16-10

Pittsburgh didn’t overwhelm New Orleans, but the Steelers collected another win and continue to build a résumé that looks better than their modest +2.14 average scoring margin. They have quietly reached 5-2, although this week’s divisional rematch gives them an immediate opportunity to avenge one of those two losses.

This week: Hosting the #13 Cleveland Browns

11 – Denver Broncos (5-2, 2nd AFC West, 64.25, +2)

Last week: Defeated Arizona, 30-16

Denver has won three straight and continues to get rewarded for navigating one of the stronger schedules in the league. The scoring margin is barely positive, which keeps the Broncos from climbing higher, but wins over Jacksonville, the Rams, Seattle and Arizona have built a legitimate 5-2 résumé.

This week: Hosting the #3 Kansas City Chiefs

12 – New England Patriots (4-3, 2nd AFC East, 61.72, -5)

Last week: Lost at Chicago, 30-24

New England’s five-spot fall looks dramatic, but the Patriots remain supported by an adjusted strength of schedule that is among the toughest in football. Losing a competitive road game to a top-seven Chicago team isn’t disastrous; it simply allowed several teams with better records or stronger scoring margins to pass them.

This week: Visiting the #30 Miami Dolphins

The rankings take a substantial drop after New England, but the next group may be the most complicated part of the entire league. Records range from 5-2 to 2-5, yet fewer than six Power Score points separate Cleveland at No. 13 from Tampa Bay at No. 19.

Tier 4

13 – Cleveland Browns (5-2, 1st AFC North, 53.83, +3)

Last week: Defeated Tennessee, 27-24

Cleveland keeps winning even though the model remains suspicious of a team that has been outscored on average this season. The Browns are 5-2 and lead the AFC North, however, and already own a 27-24 victory over Pittsburgh entering this week’s rematch.

This week: Visiting the #10 Pittsburgh Steelers

14 – Green Bay Packers (4-3, 4th NFC North, 53.63, +1)

Last week: Lost at Detroit, 20-17

Green Bay’s brief surge hit a roadblock in Detroit, and the Packers once again have a negative point differential for the season. Their .550 adjusted schedule helps, but 4-3 in an extremely competitive NFC North leaves little room for another stumble.

This week: Hosting the #20 Carolina Panthers

15 – Los Angeles Rams (3-4, 3rd NFC West, 51.64, +4)

Last week: Defeated Las Vegas, 35-21

The Rams finally reversed some of their recent downward momentum with a convincing win over Las Vegas. Their 3-4 record remains a problem, but a positive scoring margin against a difficult schedule gives Los Angeles a much stronger statistical profile than most teams with four losses.

This week: Hosting the #32 Los Angeles Chargers

16 – Baltimore Ravens (4-3, 4th AFC North, 50.99, -6)

Last week: Lost to Cincinnati, 35-13

Baltimore’s fall continues after Cincinnati handed the Ravens their most damaging loss yet. A 4-3 record keeps them respectable, but losses to New Orleans, Cleveland and now Cincinnati combine with a weak .415 adjusted schedule to explain why the model has soured on them.

This week: Visiting the #5 Buffalo Bills

17 – New York Giants (4-2-1, 1st NFC East, 50.65, +1)

Last week: Defeated Houston, 27-21

New York stopped its slide by beating Houston and remains atop the NFC East with only two losses and a tie. The Giants continue to be dragged down by the weakest adjusted schedule among the teams around them, but the record is strong enough to keep them in the middle of the rankings.

This week: Bye

18 – Atlanta Falcons (3-4, 2nd NFC South, 50.47, +2)

Last week: Defeated San Francisco, 29-20

Atlanta is the highest-ranked team with a losing record, and there is a very clear dividing line in its season. Since Michael Penix Jr. returned in Week 3, the Falcons are 3-2 and have outscored opponents 155-119, a +36 differential that works out to +7.2 points per game. Knocking off previously unbeaten San Francisco only strengthens the argument that the current Falcons are substantially better than the 0-2 version we saw in September.

This week: Visiting the #19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5, 3rd NFC South, 50.36, +7)

Last week: Defeated Carolina, 43-13

This might be the strangest ranking on the board until you look underneath the record. Tampa Bay just destroyed Carolina by 30 points, owns a positive +1.57 average scoring margin, has the strongest adjusted schedule in the league and ranks among the leaders in PP100. The Buccaneers have lost five games, but the model sees a team considerably more competitive than a typical 2-5 club.

This week: Hosting the #18 Atlanta Falcons

20 – Carolina Panthers (3-3, 1st NFC South, 48.11, -12)

Last week: Lost to Tampa Bay, 43-13

No team took a bigger hit this week than Carolina. The Panthers had been supported by a solid schedule, positive scoring margin and quality wins, but getting beaten by 30 at home completely changed the statistical picture and sent them tumbling 12 positions.

This week: Visiting the #14 Green Bay Packers

21 – Dallas Cowboys (3-4, 2nd NFC East, 48.01, +3)

Last week: Defeated Philadelphia, 38-21

Dallas finally translated its strong scoring efficiency into another victory and did it emphatically against a division rival. The Cowboys’ .390 adjusted schedule remains one of the weakest among teams in this range, but scoring 38 points and improving to 3-4 gives the model much more to reward.

This week: Hosting the #29 Arizona Cardinals

There is a noticeable break after Dallas, followed by another group of flawed teams fighting to separate themselves from the bottom quarter of the league.

Tier 5

22 – Las Vegas Raiders (3-4, 3rd AFC West, 41.19, -5)

Last week: Lost to the Los Angeles Rams, 35-21

Las Vegas has followed its competitive performance against Buffalo with another decisive loss, and its scoring margin has fallen back into negative territory. The Raiders remain efficient in PP100, but three wins in seven games against a relatively light schedule limits what that efficiency can accomplish.

This week: Visiting the #24 New York Jets

23 – Houston Texans (2-5, 3rd AFC South, 38.32, -2)

Last week: Lost to the New York Giants, 27-21

Houston’s two-game surge ended against the Giants one week after the Texans stunned Jacksonville. That Jaguars win remains valuable, but at 2-5 Houston needs to start stacking victories before the underlying improvement can translate into a meaningful climb.

This week: Bye

24 – New York Jets (2-5, 3rd AFC East, 34.75, -2)

Last week: Lost to Miami, 28-25

The Jets followed their brief improvement with a damaging home loss to previously winless Miami. A respectable adjusted schedule keeps them ahead of several teams with similar records, but this was exactly the kind of game a team trying to escape the bottom tier needed to win.

This week: Hosting the #22 Las Vegas Raiders

25 – New Orleans Saints (2-5, 4th NFC South, 34.19, -2)

Last week: Lost to Pittsburgh, 16-10

New Orleans continues to play a difficult schedule, but the Saints couldn’t build on their win over the Giants and have now lost five times. Their PP100 and schedule strength are respectable enough to keep them competitive statistically, but the results remain lacking.

This week: Bye

26 – Indianapolis Colts (2-5, 2nd AFC South, 32.79, -1)

Last week: Lost at Minnesota, 16-10

Indianapolis gave the league’s only unbeaten team a competitive game, which is considerably easier to accept than the previous week’s loss to Tennessee. The Colts remain efficient at converting yards into points, but five losses now overwhelm most of the positive indicators.

This week: Visiting the #4 Jacksonville Jaguars

The next five teams have become increasingly separated from the NFL’s middle class. Each has either a severely negative scoring margin, an extremely poor record, or both.

Tier 6

27 – Washington Commanders (1-4-1, 4th NFC East, 22.28, +2)

Last week: Bye

Washington remains one spot ahead of Philadelphia despite losing 24-22 to the Eagles in Week 1. Normally that head-to-head result would make me consider a flip, but the Philadelphia team Washington faced in September no longer resembles the one taking the field now, making the early result much less persuasive.

This week: Hosting the #28 Philadelphia Eagles

28 – Philadelphia Eagles (2-5, 3rd NFC East, 21.25, -1)

Last week: Lost to Dallas, 38-21

Philadelphia owns the earlier head-to-head win over Washington, but five consecutive losses and a brutal injury situation have changed the equation. Jalen Hurts is expected to miss the remainder of the season, while Saquon Barkley returned from a two-game hamstring absence against Dallas only to leave after nine snaps with his back tightening up. This week’s rematch gives Philadelphia an immediate opportunity to prove the ranking wrong.

This week: Visiting the #27 Washington Commanders

29 – Arizona Cardinals (2-5, 4th NFC West, 18.89, -1)

Last week: Lost to Denver, 30-16

Arizona couldn’t follow its upset of the Rams with another surprise, and the Cardinals now own one of the league’s worst scoring margins at -9.43 points per game. Two wins prevent them from falling into the absolute basement, but there isn’t much else in the profile to support them.

This week: Visiting the #21 Dallas Cowboys

30 – Miami Dolphins (1-5, 4th AFC East, 14.07, +1)

Last week: Defeated the New York Jets, 28-25

Miami finally has a victory, escaping the winless group by beating the Jets on the road. The Dolphins still own an enormous negative scoring margin, but their difficult schedule combined with finally getting into the win column gives the model something tangible to reward.

This week: Hosting the #12 New England Patriots

31 – Tennessee Titans (1-6, 4th AFC South, 12.80, -1)

Last week: Lost to Cleveland, 27-24

Tennessee couldn’t follow its first victory with another, although the Titans were significantly more competitive against Cleveland than they had been earlier in the season. At 1-6, however, the margin for statistical forgiveness is almost nonexistent.

This week: Visiting the #6 Cincinnati Bengals

And then there is one team by itself at the bottom. The Chargers are not only the NFL’s lone winless team; their Power Score is more than 10 points below Tennessee’s.

Tier 7

32 – Los Angeles Chargers (0-6, 4th AFC West, 1.85, NC)

Last week: Bye

The Chargers had a week off to regroup, but nothing that happened around the league was enough to move the NFL’s only winless team out of last place. A -10.17 average scoring margin and zero victories create an enormous statistical hole that only winning can begin to repair.

This week: Visiting the #15 Los Angeles Rams

Here is your answer key to how I am actually ranking these teams:

• Win Percentage is the foundation because, ultimately, winning is what matters most in the NFL. It carries the greatest influence in our rankings, while the other factors help determine which teams are stronger than their records alone might suggest.
• Point Differential measures how decisively a team has performed across the season, using its average scoring margin with an overall cap of 17 points in either direction. That rewards dominant teams while preventing extreme blowouts from carrying too much weight.
• Adjusted Strength of Schedule measures the quality of the opponents a team has faced based on their combined winning percentage. To keep a team from artificially weakening its own schedule by beating those opponents, I exclude every game those opponents played against the team being ranked.
• Points Per 100 Yards, or PP100, measures how many total points a team scores for every 100 offensive yards it gains. Because those points can come from short fields, turnovers, defensive scores and special teams as well as sustained offense, PP100 gives me a broader look at how efficiently the entire team turns opportunities into points.

Overall listed score is out of 100, no one factor accounts for more than half of the overall score.

Each category is measured against the league leader in that statistic, producing one overall Power Score that determines the rankings. The exact weighting is mine alone, but the goal is simple: reward winning first, then use dominance, competition and scoring efficiency to separate teams that the standings alone cannot.

Another important detail: the teams are placed into tiers–and I do “reserve the right” to move a team within a tier, and on the rarest occasion, allow a team to jump tiers. Like I said, this isn’t just numbers, I watch football with my eyes, too.