Greg DeMarco’s NFL Power Rankings: Jaguars Take Over No. 1 After Week 9

Jacksonville takes over No. 1 in Greg DeMarco’s NFL Power Rankings after Week 9, while Buffalo surges and Minnesota takes a major fall.

After another exciting week of NFL action…one that brings us a new #1, which is the old #1! Let’s see how it all shakes out!

Week 9 brought the biggest shakeup at the top of Greg DeMarco’s NFL Power Rankings so far, with Jacksonville jumping two spots to No. 1 after another dominant win and Buffalo climbing to No. 2 after shutting down Minnesota. The Vikings were the week’s biggest faller, plunging seven spots from No. 2 to No. 9 after a second straight loss, while Pittsburgh and New England each dropped four. Houston made the biggest move upward, soaring five places after hanging 44 points on the Chargers, with Dallas climbing four and Cincinnati and Kansas City each gaining three. San Francisco falls from first to third despite another convincing victory, leaving Jacksonville, Buffalo and the 49ers separated by barely more than one Power Score point at the top.

Now–onto the rankings!

Week 9 finally broke up the pack at the top. Jacksonville takes over No. 1 after another dominant performance, Buffalo jumps to second after hammering Minnesota 23-6, and San Francisco slips to third despite handling Las Vegas with ease. The Vikings suffered the week’s biggest fall, dropping seven spots after a second consecutive loss, while Cincinnati, Kansas City and Dallas all made significant climbs. Houston also surged five places after scoring 44 against the Chargers, but a prior head-to-head loss and Dallas’ better record keep the Cowboys one spot ahead in the final order.

Tier 1

1 – Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2, 1st AFC South, 90.92, +2)

Last week: Defeated Baltimore, 33-10

Jacksonville takes over the top spot after following its 42-7 destruction of Indianapolis with another three-touchdown win in Baltimore. The Jaguars now lead the league with a +13.50 average scoring margin, own a respectable adjusted schedule and have separated themselves statistically enough to finally let the raw model win the argument.

This week: Visiting the #31 Tennessee Titans

2 – Buffalo Bills (7-1, 1st AFC East, 90.74, +2)

Last week: Defeated Minnesota, 23-6

Buffalo made perhaps the strongest statement of Week 9 by going into Minnesota and holding the Vikings to six points. The Bills are 7-1, remain one of the league’s most efficient scoring teams and sit only 0.18 points behind Jacksonville in the model.

This week: Visiting the #27 New York Jets

3 – San Francisco 49ers (7-1, 1st NFC West, 89.78, -2)

Last week: Defeated Las Vegas, 38-17

San Francisco didn’t do anything wrong; Jacksonville and Buffalo simply did a little more. The 49ers handled Las Vegas by three touchdowns and still own a 7-1 record with nearly a +10 average scoring margin, keeping all three teams in this tier separated by barely more than one Power Score point.

This week: Visiting the #17 Dallas Cowboys

There is now a massive gap between the top three and everyone else. Jacksonville, Buffalo and San Francisco are separated by just 1.14 points, while more than ten points separate San Francisco from the top of Tier 2.

Tier 2

4 – Cincinnati Bengals (6-2, 2nd AFC North, 79.52, +3)

Last week: Defeated Atlanta, 34-17

Cincinnati handled Atlanta in Madrid and now owns the strongest raw profile outside the top three. Pittsburgh beat the Bengals 30-27 earlier this season, which matters, but a six-position difference is too large to override solely on head-to-head. Conveniently, they play again Sunday night.

This week: Hosting the #10 Pittsburgh Steelers

5 – Chicago Bears (7-2, 1st NFC North, 77.93, NC)

Last week: Defeated Tampa Bay, 27-24

Chicago keeps winning, even when the performance isn’t dominant. Minnesota owns a 9-3 victory over the Bears from Week 2, but Chicago has since built a 7-2 record and continues to produce enough quality wins to remain comfortably ahead for now.

This week: Bye

6 – Denver Broncos (7-2, 1st AFC West, 76.34, +2)

Last week: Defeated Carolina, 26-21

Denver survived a tougher-than-expected trip to Carolina and remains atop the AFC West at 7-2. The Broncos still own a strangely modest scoring margin, but their .594 adjusted schedule is among the toughest in football and continues to make the résumé difficult to dismiss.

This week: Bye

7 – Kansas City Chiefs (6-2, 2nd AFC West, 75.44, +3)

Last week: Defeated the New York Jets, 35-12

Kansas City responded exactly how a contender should after consecutive losses, dismantling the Jets by 23 points. The Chiefs’ scoring margin immediately rebounded to +7.38 per game, although Denver’s better record and most recent head-to-head victory keep Kansas City behind the Broncos.

This week: Visiting the #24 Atlanta Falcons

8 – Detroit Lions (6-2, 2nd NFC North, 74.47, +1)

Last week: Defeated Miami, 19-9

Detroit moves ahead of Minnesota even though the Vikings own a slightly higher raw Power Score. The Lions beat Minnesota 19-15 two weeks ago, both teams are now 6-2, and Detroit followed that head-to-head win by taking care of Miami while Minnesota suffered another decisive loss.

This week: Hosting the #15 New England Patriots

9 – Minnesota Vikings (6-2, 3rd NFC North, 75.04, -7)

Last week: Lost to Buffalo, 23-6

The Vikings were No. 2 a week ago. Back-to-back losses to Detroit and Buffalo have completely changed the picture, with the offense scoring only 21 combined points over those two games, and major QB issues. Minnesota still has enough schedule strength and early-season success to stay in the top ten, but the cushion is gone.

This week: Visiting the #11 Green Bay Packers

10 – Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 1st AFC North, 73.93, -4)

Last week: Bye

Pittsburgh falls four spots without playing because several teams around it strengthened their profiles. The Steelers already own a victory over fourth-ranked Cincinnati, however, and Sunday’s rematch gives them the perfect opportunity to prove the current six-position gap is too large.

This week: Visiting the #4 Cincinnati Bengals

Tier 2 is tightly packed beneath Cincinnati, with Chicago through Pittsburgh separated by only four Power Score points. That makes head-to-head results increasingly valuable as the season moves deeper into November.

Tier 3

11 – Green Bay Packers (6-3, 4th NFC North, 68.47, +1)

Last week: Defeated New England, 45-27

Green Bay produced one of the week’s most impressive offensive performances, hanging 45 points on New England while improving to 6-3. Somehow that still leaves the Packers fourth in the NFC North, which remains the deepest division in football.

This week: Hosting the #9 Minnesota Vikings

12 – Seattle Seahawks (5-4, 2nd NFC West, 66.19, +1)

Last week: Defeated Arizona, 17-3

Seattle has stabilized after its midseason slide, following the Chicago loss with a dominant defensive performance against Arizona. The Seahawks remain ahead of the Rams with the stronger overall statistical profile and better common-opponent résumé.

This week: Visiting the #20 Las Vegas Raiders

13 – Los Angeles Rams (5-4, 3rd NFC West, 62.44, +1)

Last week: Defeated Washington, 20-13

The Rams have quietly stacked three consecutive wins since losing to Arizona and are now above .500 for the first time in weeks. Their scoring margin remains solidly positive, but Seattle still owns the better résumé among the two NFC West teams.

This week: Visiting the #26 Arizona Cardinals

14 – New York Giants (5-2-1, 1st NFC East, 61.37, +1)

Last week: Defeated Philadelphia, 19-11

The Giants continue to do something their weak adjusted schedule cannot erase: win football games. New York is now 5-2-1, leads the NFC East and completed another divisional victory by holding Philadelphia to 11 points.

This week: Hosting the #25 Washington Commanders

15 – New England Patriots (5-4, 2nd AFC East, 60.54, -4)

Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 45-27

New England’s difficult schedule continues to provide support, but giving up 45 points at home causes a four-position fall. The Patriots remain competitive at 5-4, yet their scoring margin has essentially disappeared after one of their worst defensive performances of the season.

This week: Visiting the #8 Detroit Lions

The next tier contains several teams whose records and underlying numbers tell very different stories, making this one of the most volatile sections of the rankings.

Tier 4

16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6, 3rd NFC South, 54.20, NC)

Last week: Lost at Chicago, 27-24

Tampa Bay continues to be one of the league’s strangest statistical teams. The Buccaneers have six losses, yet they still own a positive scoring margin, one of the stronger adjusted schedules and excellent scoring efficiency. A close road loss to fifth-ranked Chicago does little to change that contradiction.

This week: Bye

17 – Dallas Cowboys (4-5, 2nd NFC East, 50.93, +4)

Last week: Defeated Indianapolis, 27-23

Dallas moves ahead of Houston despite the Texans owning the slightly higher raw Power Score. The difference is only 0.17 points, Dallas has the better record and the Cowboys already beat Houston 34-30 earlier this season, making this exactly the kind of close neighborhood where head-to-head should matter.

This week: Hosting the #3 San Francisco 49ers

18 – Houston Texans (3-5, 2nd AFC South, 51.10, +5)

Last week: Defeated the Los Angeles Chargers, 44-22

Houston is one of the week’s biggest risers after scoring 44 points and improving its season scoring margin into positive territory. The Texans’ underlying profile is suddenly much healthier, but the earlier loss to Dallas keeps them one spot behind the Cowboys for now.

This week: Visiting the #19 Cleveland Browns

19 – Cleveland Browns (5-4, 3rd AFC North, 48.60, -2)

Last week: Lost at New Orleans, 23-22

Cleveland’s five wins continue to clash with some ugly underlying numbers. The Browns have been outscored by nearly four points per game and have now lost consecutive games after briefly sitting atop the AFC North.

This week: Hosting the #18 Houston Texans

20 – Las Vegas Raiders (4-5, 3rd AFC West, 48.21, -2)

Last week: Lost at San Francisco, 38-17

Las Vegas had no answer for San Francisco and falls back below .500 after briefly stabilizing its season. The Raiders remain highly efficient in PP100, but a negative scoring margin and five losses limit how much that strength can accomplish.

This week: Hosting the #12 Seattle Seahawks

21 – Carolina Panthers (3-5, 1st NFC South, 46.19, -2)

Last week: Lost to Denver, 26-21

Carolina gave Denver a competitive game but has now lost three straight after briefly climbing into the top ten. Somehow, 3-5 is still good enough to lead the NFC South, making this week’s divisional matchup far more important than either team’s ranking suggests.

This week: Visiting the #22 New Orleans Saints

22 – New Orleans Saints (3-5, 2nd NFC South, 45.77, +2)

Last week: Defeated Cleveland, 23-22

New Orleans finally turned its difficult schedule into another victory by edging Cleveland. The Saints remain behind Carolina by the narrowest of statistical margins, and this week’s head-to-head meeting gives both teams a direct opportunity to take control of the division.

This week: Hosting the #21 Carolina Panthers

23 – Baltimore Ravens (4-5, 4th AFC North, 42.87, -3)

Last week: Lost to Jacksonville, 33-10

Baltimore has now lost four straight, including three consecutive defeats by more than 20 points. The Ravens added veteran Jacoby Brissett after Lamar Jackson went to injured reserve and Tyler Huntley was lost for the season, but until the quarterback situation stabilizes there is little reason to move Baltimore based on its earlier head-to-head wins.

This week: Hosting the #32 Los Angeles Chargers

24 – Atlanta Falcons (3-6, 4th NFC South, 42.71, -2)

Last week: Lost to Cincinnati, 34-17

Atlanta’s encouraging stretch after Michael Penix Jr. returned has faded badly. The Falcons have now lost three straight, including a shutout against Tampa Bay and a 17-point loss to Cincinnati, making the earlier wins over Green Bay and San Francisco increasingly difficult to lean on.

This week: Hosting the #7 Kansas City Chiefs

There is another noticeable drop after Atlanta, leaving three teams clustered in the mid-30s before the rankings fall into the league’s bottom group.

Tier 5

25 – Washington Commanders (2-5-1, 3rd NFC East, 37.08, NC)

Last week: Lost to the Los Angeles Rams, 20-13

Washington couldn’t build on its win over Philadelphia and falls back into the loss column. The Commanders continue to play enough competitive football to stay above the bottom tier, but two victories in eight games tell the larger story.

This week: Visiting the #14 New York Giants

26 – Arizona Cardinals (3-6, 4th NFC West, 34.36, +1)

Last week: Lost at Seattle, 17-3

Arizona’s upset of Dallas didn’t carry over to Seattle, where the Cardinals managed only three points. Three victories keep them ahead of several teams below them, but an -8.56 average scoring margin continues to make the overall profile difficult to defend.

This week: Hosting the #13 Los Angeles Rams

27 – New York Jets (2-7, 3rd AFC East, 33.34, -1)

Last week: Lost at Kansas City, 35-12

The Jets’ brief offensive improvement disappeared against Kansas City, and seven losses now leave little room for optimism. Their adjusted schedule remains respectable, but the results and scoring margin have pulled them firmly toward the bottom of the league.

This week: Hosting the #2 Buffalo Bills

The final five remain separated from the rest of the NFL, with Indianapolis and Philadelphia still searching for traction while Miami, Tennessee and the Chargers occupy the league’s basement.

Tier 6

28 – Indianapolis Colts (2-7, 3rd AFC South, 29.87, NC)

Last week: Lost to Dallas, 27-23

Indianapolis was far more competitive than it had been during the Jacksonville blowout, but the result was still another loss. Tennessee owns the head-to-head victory over the Colts, but Indianapolis has the better record and remains almost ten Power Score points ahead, so there is no reason to force a change.

This week: Hosting the #30 Miami Dolphins

29 – Philadelphia Eagles (2-7, 4th NFC East, 25.86, NC)

Last week: Lost to the New York Giants, 19-11

Philadelphia’s losing streak has reached seven, and there was little offensive improvement against the Giants. The Eagles remain above Miami and Tennessee almost entirely because two victories still carry weight in a model where winning remains the largest component.

This week: Bye

30 – Miami Dolphins (1-7, 4th AFC East, 22.81, NC)

Last week: Lost to Detroit, 19-9

Miami’s brutal schedule continues to prop up parts of the statistical profile, but the Dolphins have now scored only nine points in consecutive losses. One win in eight games and a -9.25 scoring margin leave very little argument for anything higher.

This week: Visiting the #28 Indianapolis Colts

31 – Tennessee Titans (1-7, 4th AFC South, 20.63, NC)

Last week: Bye

Tennessee remains ahead of only the Chargers despite owning a head-to-head victory over Indianapolis. The Titans need more than one upset to overcome a 1-7 record, weak schedule and one of the lowest overall Power Scores in football.

This week: Hosting the #1 Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chargers remain alone at the bottom, now the NFL’s only 0-8 team and more than 11 Power Score points behind Tennessee.

Tier 7

32 – Los Angeles Chargers (0-8, 4th AFC West, 8.92, NC)

Last week: Lost to Houston, 44-22

Eight games, eight losses. Allowing 44 points to Houston pushed the Chargers’ average scoring margin to -12.25, easily the worst in football, and leaves them isolated at the bottom for another week.

This week: Visiting the #23 Baltimore Ravens

Here is your answer key to how I am actually ranking these teams:

• Win Percentage is the foundation because, ultimately, winning is what matters most in the NFL. It carries the greatest influence in our rankings, while the other factors help determine which teams are stronger than their records alone might suggest.
• Point Differential measures how decisively a team has performed across the season, using its average scoring margin with an overall cap of 17 points in either direction. That rewards dominant teams while preventing extreme blowouts from carrying too much weight.
• Adjusted Strength of Schedule measures the quality of the opponents a team has faced based on their combined winning percentage. To keep a team from artificially weakening its own schedule by beating those opponents, I exclude every game those opponents played against the team being ranked.
• Points Per 100 Yards, or PP100, measures how many total points a team scores for every 100 offensive yards it gains. Because those points can come from short fields, turnovers, defensive scores and special teams as well as sustained offense, PP100 gives me a broader look at how efficiently the entire team turns opportunities into points.

Overall listed score is out of 100, no one factor accounts for more than half of the overall score.

Each category is measured against the league leader in that statistic, producing one overall Power Score that determines the rankings. The exact weighting is mine alone, but the goal is simple: reward winning first, then use dominance, competition and scoring efficiency to separate teams that the standings alone cannot.

Another important detail: the teams are placed into tiers–and I do “reserve the right” to move a team within a tier, and on the rarest occasion, allow a team to jump tiers. Like I said, this isn’t just numbers, I watch football with my eyes, too.