Opinion
DeMarco: A Look At The Ratings Potential For AEW & NXT
Greg DeMarco takes a dive into the potential ratings glory that could be achieved by AEW & NXT on Wednesday nights. What’s realistic? And will TNT & USA be happy?
Greg DeMarco takes a dive into the potential ratings glory that could be achieved by AEW & NXT on Wednesday nights. What’s realistic? And will TNT & USA be happy?
We are just weeks away from the return of a “war” in the televised wrestling landscape. The Monday Night Wars say WWE Monday Night Raw and WCW Monday Nitro battle it out for the eyeballs of wrestling fans throughout the country (and world). WWE would ultimately win, and now we have all of the WCW content available to stream on the WWE Network for just $9.99.
Now we are embarking on a new war, the Wednesday Night Wars! This time around the role of WCW is being played by All Elite Wrestling, the Khan family owned upstart run by Cody Rhodes, The Young Bucks, Kenny Omega, and Brandi Rhodes. And the opposition isn’t WWE, as Vince McMahon is sending Triple H into battle when NXT defends the honor of Titan Sports against wrestling’s “new girl.”
On Thursday, October 3, 2019, we will have ratings data for both wrestling shows, and for the first time in forever we can argue over the validity of TV ratings when comparing shows that went head-to-head! That’s exciting for the fan in me, even if I now better. The landscape of television is completely different from the Monday Night Wars, thanks to advancements in digital video recording, streaming networks, and a whole slew of people cutting the cord. Comparing the Wednesday Night Wars to the Monday Night Wars is like comparing apples to softballs–it’s silly.
But when has silly stopped a wrestling fan from doing….well, anything! 🙂
But it’s important to remember that while each company wants to beat the other (and they really really really do), the true barometer of success comes from the networks they are answering to. For WWE, it’s the USA Network, the company’s largest historical partner who paid somewhere between $30 million and $90 million for the rights to NXT, making the yellow and black brand a profitable entity for WWE. For AEW, it’s TNT, the former home of WCW Nitro and broadcast partner who paid basically nothing (outside of production costs) for AEW content.
I mean right there it’s obvious to me that we can’t actually compare these, as their TV deals are so different–and expectations will be, too! But like I said, when has silly ever stopped us???
What does history tell us?
NXT made it’s broadcast debut on the USA Network on December 13, 2017 as part of WWE Week. The broadcast aired at 7 PM eastern time (and hour earlier than what NXT will do starting on September 18) and was only an hour long (it will be two hours this time around). According to ShowBuzzDaily, that show drew a .27 demographic rating and 841k total viewers. That was good enough for the show to come in 22nd for the night on all of cable. On that night, the Top 150 was topped by two NBA basketball games.
For a comparison, that week’s Raw drew 2.68 million viewers. This week’s Raw drew an average of 2.53 million viewers. That is a drop off of less than 1%, so it’s reasonable to expect NXT to do a number around the same 841k it did in December 2017. That’s not including the boost NXT is receiving on WWE television, and the increased profile of the show/brand as a whole.
For AEW, we have no historical data to go on, but I think it’s safe to assume it can do close to that number…maybe that 841K is the upper limit. I would set the lower limit at 400k viewers, even though I expect it to beat that mark.
What are USA and TNT drawing on Wednesdays now?
I am glad you asked, because that is a key answer we all need. Beating the other wrestling show is great, but beating the show you replaced on the same network at the same timeslot is more than great–it’s a license to print money!
Let’s take a take a look at the past few weeks of data for USA and TNT:
Wednesday, August 28
- USA Network’s top show: Suits Retrospective at 8:30 PM drew 808k viewers for a .16 demo rating, finishing at #22 for the night
- TNT’s top show: BR Football Match Day at 2:00 PM drew 128k viewers for a .04 demo rating, finishing 141 for the night
Wednesday, August 21
- USA Network’s top show: Suits at 9:00 PM drew 1.050 million viewers for a .20 demo rating, finishing at #25 for the night
- TNT’s top show: I don’t know! TNT failed to crack the Top 150 on this day
Wednesday, August 14
- USA Network’s top show: Suits at 9:00 PM drew 955 million viewers for a .21 demo rating, finishing at #22 for the night
- TNT’s top show: UEFA Super Cup Soccer at 2:42 PM drew 316k viewers for a .14 demo rating, finishing at #42
What does it all mean, Greg?
Here is what I learned: the networks are going to be very happy with NXT and AEW. It’s reasonable to expect the NXT product to push for 1 million eyeballs, and finishing in the Top 20%. Even if NXT draws 841k viewers, it would be a tremendous success for the alternate selection in WWE. If AEW draws 400k, Turner is going to be happy as they’re barely paying for the content, and the show cracked the Top 150 (maybe even the Top 100).
The historical numbers seem to bode well for NXT and AEW. Despite popular belief, more people know NXT, a fact that even Twitter follower counts can confirm. Plus NXT is getting a two week head start, and I expect them to load up the October 2 show to a Takeover quality.
The easiest way to sum it all up? Focus on what’s important, and that’s the boost AEW and NXT are providing for their network. Both networks will see significant ROI (return on investment) even if there is one clear cut winner early.
About Chairshot Radio Network
Launched in 2017, the Chairshot Radio Network presents you with the best in sports, entertainment, and sports entertainment. Wrestling and wrestling crossover podcasts + the most interesting content + the most engaging hosts = the most entertaining podcasts you’ll find!
MONDAY - Bandwagon Nerds (entertainment & popular culture)
TUESDAY - Musical Chairs (music) / Hockey Talk (NHL)
WEDNESDAY - The Greg DeMarco Show (wrestling)
THURSDAY - Keeping the news ridiculous... The Oddity / Chairshot NFL (NFL)
FRIDAY - DWI Podcast (Drunk Wrestling Intellect)
SATURDAY - The Mindless Wrestling Podcast
SUNDAY - The Front and Center Sports Podcast
CHAIRSHOT RADIO NETWORK PODCAST SPECIALS
Attitude Of Aggression Podcast & The Big Five Project (chronologically exploring WWE's PPV/PLE history)
TheChairshot.com PRESENTS...IMMEDIATE POST WWE PLE REACTIONS w/ DJ(Mindless), Tunney(DWI) & Friends
Patrick O'Dowd's 5X5
Classic POD is WAR
Chairshot Radio Network Your home for the hardest hitting podcasts... Sports, Entertainment and Sports Entertainment!
Powered by RedCircle
Let us know what you think on social media @ChairshotMedia and always remember to use the hashtag #UseYourHead!
Opinion
Chairshot Staff Picks: Money In The Bank
Extra, extra read all about it… Chairshot Staff picks are in!!!
Sing it with me… money money money money moneeeeeeeeeyeeeeee… everybody’s got a price! MONEY IN THE BANK is here!!! How money will our staff picks be?!?
- AJ – Roxanne Perez
- Andrew – Stephanie Vaquer – *Bubba Sparxxx Impression* I don’t tell stories, I let them tell theyself.
- Dave – Guilia – A stacked field but I just like her here.
- DJ – Naomi
- DPP – Roxanne Perez
- Jason – Alexa Bliss
- Patrick – Roxanne Perez
- Rey – Naomi – If Naomi loses, we riot!
- Rob – Naomi
- Greg – Alexa Bliss – Bliss has had huge reactions since returning and is moving a ton of merch. While I can see them wanting to build Roxanne Perez, Giulia, or Stephanie Vaquer, I think Alexa Bliss.
Tunney’s Take: Rhea Ripley – I’ll make my case short and sweet… Mami in the Bank! You can’t leave that money on the table.
Chairshot Pick – Tie – Naomi 3 & Roxanne Perez 3 (Alexa Bliss 2, Giulia 1, Rhea Ripley 1, Stephanie Vaquer 1)
- AJ – LA Knight
- Andrew – El Grande Americano – Feels correct given his push and the fact he’s over.
- Dave – Seth Rollins – Got to push that new faction.
- DJ – LA Knight
- DPP – El Grande Americano
- Jason – LA Knight
- Patrick – Solo Sikoa
- Rey – LA Knight – Looks like another push, and he does have history with Cena.
- Rob – Solo Sikoa
- Greg – Seth Rollins – This company is extremely high in the El Grande Americano gimmick, but this match comes down to Seth Rollins or LA Knight. Given the Rollins storyline, it’s his briefcase to win.
Tunney’s Take: El Grande Americano – Picture this: Chad Gable wins the AAA Mega Championship and El Grande Americano wins MITB! WHAT A SATURDAY in LA!!!
Chairshot Pick – LA Knight 4 (El Grande Americano 3, Seth Rollins 2, Solo Sikoa 2)
- AJ – Becky Lynch – Sadly
- Andrew – Becky Lynch – I still don’t care about Lyra.
- Dave – Lyra Valkyria – Starting to warm up to her and Becky has a lot to do with that.
- DJ – Lyra Valkyria
- DPP – Becky Lynch
- Jason – Becky Lynch
- Patrick – Lyra Valkyria
- Rey – Becky Lynch – Put some fire on the Irish Beef.
- Rob – Becky Lynch
- Greg – Becky Lynch – I don’t think you do a rematch here just to have Becky lose again. Unless Bayley shows up to help Lyra.
Tunney’s Take: Becky Lynch – A big part of me feels that winning this title checks off a major box for Becks in her HOF career.
Chairshot Pick – Becky Lynch 8-3
- AJ – Cena & Paul
- Andrew – Rhodes & Uso – Easy way for Cena to lose without eating the pinfall.
- Dave – Rhodes & Uso – Get the QB back on the winning track.
- DJ – Rhodes & Uso
- DPP – Rhodes & Uso
- Jason – Cena & Paul
- Patrick – Cena & Paul
- Rey – Rhodes & Uso – Heels usually lose these kinds of matches. Logan takes the pin.
- Rob – Cena & Paul
- Greg – Rhodes & Uso – I hope Jey isn’t an afterthought here like Cody was last fall when he was paired up with Roman. I think Cody pins Cena to set up Cody-Cena 2 at SummerSlam.
Tunney’s Take: Cena & Paul – I don’t think Cena is involved in another loss until he loses the WWE Championship. I also think Logan Paul is NOT done trying to capture Jey Uso’s World Heavyweight Championship. …Travis Scott in the house?
Chairshot Pick – 6-5 Rhodes & Uso
In closing I want to thank everyone on the panel for participating with their picks! You can follow each prognosticator/podcaster on X @ the handles below. We all enjoy Pro Wrestling so remember three things… be respectful of others, comparison is the thief of joy and HAVE FUN!
- AJ – @PhenomenalAJB
- Andrew – @IWCWarChief
- Dave – @AttitudeAgg
- DJ – @TheMindlessPod
- DPP – @itsmeDPP
- Jason – @JediFett
- Patrick – @WrestlngRealist
- Rey – @itsreycash
- Rob – @rbonne1
- Greg – @gregdemarco44
- PC – @PCTunney
- TheChairshot.com – @ChairshotMedia
prowrestlingtees.com/TheChairshot – a PLETHORA of GREAT designs…MAKES A GREAT GIFT!
About Chairshot Radio Network
Launched in 2017, the Chairshot Radio Network presents you with the best in sports, entertainment, and sports entertainment. Wrestling and wrestling crossover podcasts + the most interesting content + the most engaging hosts = the most entertaining podcasts you’ll find!
MONDAY – Bandwagon Nerds (entertainment & popular culture)
TUESDAY – 4 Corners Podcast (sports)
WEDNESDAY – The Greg DeMarco Show (wrestling)
THURSDAY – POD is WAR (Los Tres Friends)
FRIDAY – DWI Podcast (Drunk Wrestling Intellect)
SATURDAY – The Mindless Wrestling Podcast
SUNDAY – Keeping the news ridiculous… The Oddity / The Front and Center Sports Podcast
CHAIRSHOT RADIO NETWORK PODCAST SPECIALS
Attitude Of Aggression Podcast & The Big Five Project (chronologically exploring WWE’s PPV/PLE history)
TheChairshot.com PRESENTS…IMMEDIATE POST WWE PLE REACTIONS w/ DJ(Mindless), Tunney(DWI) & Friends
Patrick O’Dowd’s 5X5
Classic POD is WAR
Chairshot Radio Network
Your home for the hardest hitting podcasts… Sports, Entertainment and Sports Entertainment!
Listen on your favorite platform!
iTunes | iHeart Radio | Google Play | Spotify
Listen, like, subscribe, and share!
About Chairshot Radio Network
Launched in 2017, the Chairshot Radio Network presents you with the best in sports, entertainment, and sports entertainment. Wrestling and wrestling crossover podcasts + the most interesting content + the most engaging hosts = the most entertaining podcasts you’ll find!
MONDAY - Bandwagon Nerds (entertainment & popular culture)
TUESDAY - Musical Chairs (music) / Hockey Talk (NHL)
WEDNESDAY - The Greg DeMarco Show (wrestling)
THURSDAY - Keeping the news ridiculous... The Oddity / Chairshot NFL (NFL)
FRIDAY - DWI Podcast (Drunk Wrestling Intellect)
SATURDAY - The Mindless Wrestling Podcast
SUNDAY - The Front and Center Sports Podcast
CHAIRSHOT RADIO NETWORK PODCAST SPECIALS
Attitude Of Aggression Podcast & The Big Five Project (chronologically exploring WWE's PPV/PLE history)
TheChairshot.com PRESENTS...IMMEDIATE POST WWE PLE REACTIONS w/ DJ(Mindless), Tunney(DWI) & Friends
Patrick O'Dowd's 5X5
Classic POD is WAR
Chairshot Radio Network Your home for the hardest hitting podcasts... Sports, Entertainment and Sports Entertainment!
Powered by RedCircle
Let us know what you think on social media @ChairshotMedia and always remember to use the hashtag #UseYourHead!
May is upon us and with that, so is Backlash from St. Louis! What does the first PLE after WrestleMania have in store for the WWE Universe? Let’s see if the Chairshot Staff can properly interpret the crystal ball of rasslin’ future.
- AJ – Pat MacAfee – Gunther has to start losing control and who better than an announcer.
- Andrew – Pat MacAfee – Goldberg getting involved does seem correct here.
- Dave – Gunther – He’s not losing to a broadcaster.
- DJ – Gunther – Pat is sent to the shadow realm until football season is over.
- DPP – Gunther – Post match beat down leads to Pat time off.
- Jason – Gunther – One massive spot and or bump from Pat.
- Patrick – Gunther
- Rey – Gunther – RIP MacAfee, t’was a good life.
- Rob – Gunther
- Greg – Pat MacAfee – Why? Goooooldbeeerrrrrgggggg!
Tunney’s Take: Gunther – Seems like the right pick here. Pat may be getting some time off and Gunther needs more heat.
Chairshot Pick – GUNTHER 8-3
- AJ – Lyra Valkyria – Becky’s hopefully putting her over, still mad about Dakota.
- Andrew – Becky Lynch – I have no real interest in Lyra currently.
- Dave – Becky Lynch – Lyra is boring AF!
- DJ – Lyra Valkyria – Bayley interferes.
- DPP – Becky Lynch – Becky cheats and steals the title.
- Jason – Lyra Valkyria – Bayley costs Becks.
- Patrick – Becky Lynch
- Rey – Becky Lynch – Story needs to jump up a bit, Becky Charlotte’s Lyra.
- Rob – Lyra Valkyria
- Greg – Becky Lynch – It’s been fun, Lyra. (It kinda hasn’t)
Tunney’s Take: Lyra Valkyria – Bayley’s interference should set up some type of program with Becky as we head towards Summer(Slam).
Chairshot Pick – BECKY LYNCH 6-5
- AJ – Jacob Fatu – Great way to put him over w/ two former WHCs and LA Knight.
- Andrew – Jacob Fatu – He’s Jacob Fatu!
- Dave – Jacob Fatu – Too soon to pull the belt off him.
- DJ – Jacob Fatu – Priest and LA can’t decide who’s is bigger.
- DPP – Jacob Fatu – Your hardcore match, tables and chairs involved.
- Jason – Jacob Fatu – The Champ retains due to or in spite of Solo.
- Patrick – Jacob Fatu
- Rey – Jacob Fatu – All gas. No brakes. Ain’t losing.
- Rob – Jacob Fatu
- Greg – Jacob Fatu – Someone from The Samoan Dynasty ain’t winning a title just to drop it.
Tunney’s Take: Jacob Fatu – Uncle Mo is on Fatu’s side and other than Knight, I don’t see Drew or Priest holding the US title in the current circumstances of this title’s landscape.
Chairshot Pick – JACOB FATU 11-0
- AJ – Dominic Mysterio – Judgement Day shenanigans just leading up to Finn turning on Dom later.
- Andrew – Penta – Dom’s fine having a short reign, could also work for pushing AAA.
- Dave – Dominic Mysterio – He’s probably more over than Penta.
- DJ – Dominic Mysterio – Dirty Dom takes home the gold and the girl.
- DPP – Dominic Mysterio – Big Head helps Dom pull out the win.
- Jason – Dominic Mysterio – By hook and crook.
- Patrick – Dominic Mysterio
- Rey – Dominic Mysterio – Latino Heat keeps burning. Finn gets closer to the edge.
- Rob – Dominic Mysterio
- Greg – Dominic Mysterio – Someone from The Guerrero Dynasty ain’t winning a title just to drop it.
Tunney’s Take: Dominic Mysterio – That belt looks good with the king of chicken tendys. I can see Penta and Rey reforming as a tag team sooner than later.
Chairshot Pick – DOMINIC MYSTERIO 10-1
- AJ – John Cena – Why? Cena wins, lol.
- Andrew – John Cena – Shenanigans ensue so it’s not a clean win.
- Dave – John Cena – The last time is now.
- DJ – John Cena – Randy hears voices telling him he needs an Attitude Adjustment.
- DPP – John Cena – Cena tries to cheat but the ref doesn’t call for a DQ.
- Jason – John Cena – Nefarious means, Randy not ready for Evil John Cena.
- Patrick – John Cena
- Rey – John Cena – Cena just counting down the dates. Should be fun though.
- Rob – John Cena
- Greg – John Cena – You know they want Cody to be the hero in the end.
Tunney’s Take: Randy Orton – Once upon a time Randy got himself intentionally disqualified and it cost John. Saturday, history repeats itself with a 180-degree twist. Cena retains via Orton DQ victory. This time, Travis Scott’s appearance takes care of that task.
Chairshot Pick – JOHN CENA 10-1
In closing I want to thank everyone on the panel for participating with their picks! You can follow each prognosticator/podcaster on X @ the handles below. We all enjoy Pro Wrestling so remember three things… be respectful of others, comparison is the thief of joy and HAVE FUN!
- AJ – @PhenomenalAJB
- Andrew – @IWCWarChief
- Dave – @AttitudeAgg
- DJ – @TheMindlessPod
- DPP – @itsmeDPP
- Jason – @JediFett
- Patrick – @WrestlngRealist
- Rey – @itsreycash
- Rob – @rbonne1
- Greg – @gregdemarco44
- PC – @PCTunney
- TheChairshot.com – @ChairshotMedia
prowrestlingtees.com/TheChairshot – a PLETHORA of GREAT designs…MAKES A GREAT GIFT!
About Chairshot Radio Network
Launched in 2017, the Chairshot Radio Network presents you with the best in sports, entertainment, and sports entertainment. Wrestling and wrestling crossover podcasts + the most interesting content + the most engaging hosts = the most entertaining podcasts you’ll find!
MONDAY – Bandwagon Nerds (entertainment & popular culture)
TUESDAY – 4 Corners Podcast (sports)
WEDNESDAY – The Greg DeMarco Show (wrestling)
THURSDAY – POD is WAR (Los Tres Friends)
FRIDAY – DWI Podcast (Drunk Wrestling Intellect)
SATURDAY – The Mindless Wrestling Podcast
SUNDAY – Keeping the news ridiculous… The Oddity / The Front and Center Sports Podcast
CHAIRSHOT RADIO NETWORK PODCAST SPECIALS
Attitude Of Aggression Podcast & The Big Five Project (chronologically exploring WWE’s PPV/PLE history)
TheChairshot.com PRESENTS…IMMEDIATE POST WWE PLE REACTIONS w/ DJ(Mindless), Tunney(DWI) & Friends
Patrick O’Dowd’s 5X5
Classic POD is WAR
Chairshot Radio Network
Your home for the hardest hitting podcasts… Sports, Entertainment and Sports Entertainment!
Listen on your favorite platform!
iTunes | iHeart Radio | Google Play | Spotify
Listen, like, subscribe, and share!
About Chairshot Radio Network
Launched in 2017, the Chairshot Radio Network presents you with the best in sports, entertainment, and sports entertainment. Wrestling and wrestling crossover podcasts + the most interesting content + the most engaging hosts = the most entertaining podcasts you’ll find!
MONDAY - Bandwagon Nerds (entertainment & popular culture)
TUESDAY - Musical Chairs (music) / Hockey Talk (NHL)
WEDNESDAY - The Greg DeMarco Show (wrestling)
THURSDAY - Keeping the news ridiculous... The Oddity / Chairshot NFL (NFL)
FRIDAY - DWI Podcast (Drunk Wrestling Intellect)
SATURDAY - The Mindless Wrestling Podcast
SUNDAY - The Front and Center Sports Podcast
CHAIRSHOT RADIO NETWORK PODCAST SPECIALS
Attitude Of Aggression Podcast & The Big Five Project (chronologically exploring WWE's PPV/PLE history)
TheChairshot.com PRESENTS...IMMEDIATE POST WWE PLE REACTIONS w/ DJ(Mindless), Tunney(DWI) & Friends
Patrick O'Dowd's 5X5
Classic POD is WAR
Chairshot Radio Network Your home for the hardest hitting podcasts... Sports, Entertainment and Sports Entertainment!
Powered by RedCircle
Let us know what you think on social media @ChairshotMedia and always remember to use the hashtag #UseYourHead!
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