It’s Week 11 in the National Football League! Last week at this time, we had a little hope. Your humble correspondent had managed a winning record during a week where a lot of crazy stuff happened, and the road to .500 & beyond was starting to look feasible. Then Week 10 happened, and just when I thought I had hit rock bottom, I found a level below that.

This has been a good learning experience for me. It’s taught me how far below I’m at compared to actual NFL experts. I feel that most fans could benefit from such an experience. Y’all go ahead and try to pick games, and you’ll be at a level near mine. It’s so ridiculous.

I wish I had something better to say about my picks, but I don’t. So let’s hook em up!

Thursday, November 18

New England (-7) at Atlanta

The Falcons play the Patriots Thursday.
Patriots just won by 38 and the Falcons just lost by 40.
Should be a barnburner.

And by that I mean they’re going to put the Falcons in a barn and light it on fire.

— All Pro Lines (@AllProLines) November 16, 2021

The Patriots are on a four game winning streak, and three of them would be classified as blowouts. They’re a half-game behind those Buffalo Bills, but heading to Atlanta on a short week against a Falcons team that got humiliated in Dallas. The good news for the Falcons is that they didn’t wear themselves out too much in the second half of that game. The bad news: the Patriots are rolling.

Sunday, November 21

Detroit at Cleveland (-10)

AFC North in Week 10:

Bengals: bye
Steelers: tied the 0-8 Lions
Ravens: lost to 2-7 Dolphins
Browns: lost 45-7 to Patriots pic.twitter.com/uS1dAd2Ml8

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 14, 2021

There’s one main question we need the answer to here: Is Nick Chubb playing? We’re not certain of that at this moment. We are certain Kareem Hunt won’t play, and we’re also certain that the Browns offense isn’t doing a lot without either man. Say what you will about the Lions, but a lot of their games have been closer than one would expect. I expect this to be one of those games.

San Francisco (-6.5) at Jacksonville

Yeah sex is cool and all but have you ever celebrated a #VictoryTuesday in the same week that the Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals lost? 🤔

— Alyce (@Ninergirl99) November 16, 2021

I declared the 49ers dead last week, so of course they stomped all over the Rams on Monday night. Of course their schedule opens up pretty nicely for a stretch run. If there’s one thing we’ve established so far this year it’s that I usually don’t know what I’m talking about.

I’m still pretty sure the Jaguars are bad though, so go with the 49ers.

Indianapolis at Buffalo (-7)

The @TBNSports needs to bring back the #DropkickContest

Here's Mike Vanderjagt beating Doug Flutie in a pregame dropkicking contest

Verne Lundquist confirming that the Colts kicker was the winner https://t.co/9GRZzdaEIa pic.twitter.com/IkWwKkphIX

— BuffaloBillsOnVHS📼 (@BillsVhs) November 16, 2021

The Colts’ strength has been the running game, as anybody that’s been forced to use Carson Wentz on their fantasy football team can tell you. The Bills boast one of the best rush defenses in the NFL, so much of the Colts’ hopes will rest with Wentz. Relying on the passing game in Buffalo in November isn’t the best route to success. I see the Bills taking care of business here.

Miami (-3) at NY Jets

Dolphins will beat the Jets in 2 of their next 4 games. Otherwise none of this is worth talking about. #Dolphins

— BrianCatNFL (@BrianCatNFL) November 14, 2021

It’s tough to trust the Dolphins on the road, but it’s the Jets & Joe Flacco. If the Dolphins can make Lamar Jackson look human, surely they can keep Joe Flacco from getting a whole heck of a lot done.

Washington vs. Carolina (-3.5)

Cam Newton in a Panthers jersey screaming IM BACK?! pic.twitter.com/liJw2Mhj2C

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) November 14, 2021

Killa Cam is back, and Panthers fans couldn’t be happier. Heck, we’re all pretty happy about it. Cam Newton in a Panthers uniform just looks right. His homecoming this week should be something else, and it’ll be a tough environment for a Washington Football Team that had lost four straight before beating the Buccaneers last week in one of those results that makes one scratch their head.

We’ll ride the emotion this week and go with the Panthers to get the win here & give the fans more hope about what Newton can do in a late-career renaissance. We’ll ignore the fact that he didn’t actually start his first game back for now and enjoy the atmosphere.

Baltimore (-5) at Chicago

Ravens vs. Bears note:

Lamar Jackson will face his 28th NFL team Sunday. He's 25-2 when facing a team for the first time.

Only the Chiefs in the 2018 regular season and the Titans in the 2019 playoffs earned wins over Jackson in their first meetings. pic.twitter.com/UHBiou9zzE

— Jordan Dajani (@JordanDajani) November 16, 2021

The Ravens haven’t looked right since that demolition of the Chargers back in Week 7. A narrow victory over the Vikings has been sandwiched by two butt-kickings by the Bengals & Dolphins. Neither of whom were expected to do such things. The Bears are coming off of a bye week after arguably getting hosed by the officials in Pittsburgh back in Week 9. Defense is their strength, and they should be able to do enough to at least keep the Bears close in this one.

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-1.5)

Big matchup this week. The Saints and Eagles are the only two teams that have blocked a punt and field goal this season.

— Bo Wulf (@Bo_Wulf) November 16, 2021

It’s been a tough stretch for the Saints, with two narrow losses after wins over the Seahawks & the Bucs supposedly put them on the map. They need to score a win here to keep the spiral from getting too downward. The NFC South is pretty close though, so they’re not in as big a pinch as the Eagles are. Philly is 4-6 & looking up at a 7-2 Cowboys team that doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. They also haven’t won a home game since December 13, 2021. The team they beat then? The New Orleans Saints.

I think Jalen Hurts gets it done and the Eagles stay in contention.

Houston at Tennessee (-10)

The #Texans have more safeties (1) on the road than touchdowns (0) since Week 2.
s/o @CoryCurtis2 for the assist. #Titans

— Emily Proud (@emily_proud) November 16, 2021

What arguments can we make in favor of the Texans? They’re coming off of a bye. Derrick Henry still isn’t playing. That’s all I got. Houston has only come within one score twice in eight weeks, and the Titans have beat a good number of the teams making mincemeat of the Texans. Maybe there’s a surprise in store for the Titans here, but I don’t see it.

Green Bay (-2.5) at Minnesota

This season is almost unpredictable, but we all already knew in August that the Packers at Vikings game would be the matchup between an anti vaxxer who already missed a game due to Covid and the passer with the highest PFF passing grade in the league

— Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) November 16, 2021

Another thing we already know: this game’s going down to the wire. All Vikings games do, it’s just a fact of life. I know we make the joke every week, but only one Vikings game has been decided by more than one touchdown. If you like watching competitive football, this is the team to watch. The Packers have been on a pretty good roll since Week 2 (not counting the game Aaron Rodgers missed, of course), and I tend to side with them in divisional games. And in most games, to be honest.

Cincinnati (-1) at Las Vegas

The Bengals are coming off their bye before playing #Raiders this week. Cinci is 5-13-1 after the bye since 2002. Only the Raiders have a worse post-bye record in that span at 4-16.

— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) November 17, 2021

People tell me that a bye week is supposed to give a football team a chance to rest & recover so they can come back strong for the rest of the season. As a Cincinnati Bengals fan, I see the bye week as a chance for a football team to mess around and not prepare for their next opponent, as that’s what the Bengals do. A really good way to prove that things have actually changed with Zac Taylor at the helm would be for this team to actually get their poop together & win in Las Vegas.

These teams are in oddly similar positions. The Bengals went to New Jersey and lost to the injury-riddled Jets, then went home to get blown out by the Browns, a bitter division rival. The Raiders went to New Jersey and lost to the injury-riddled Giants, then went home to get blown out by the Chiefs, a bitter division rival. They’re both at 5-4 and could really use a win here to stay in the thick of the playoff chase. I assume the Raiders will win this because the Bengals typically don’t win in these spots. Should the Bengals actually win, the odds of me getting drunk and tweeting embarrassing things at Leigh Mayock are pretty high. (Hell, I’ll probably be doing that either way.)

Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle

This is very good Colt McCoy news. https://t.co/N8HM5RTyjX

— Darren Urban (@Cardschatter) November 15, 2021

The Colt McCoy Era looked pretty good for one week, then came crashing back to reality. Then he got hurt and the Cardinals were stuck with Chris Streveler. Kyler Murray seems to be getting closer to returning, but the conventional wisdom is that Arizona will wait until after their Week 12 bye to bring him back. That would be smart. Especially since it’s going to be cold & rainy in Seattle, and Murray would just end up laying an egg anyway. Like Russell Wilson did last week in Green Bay.

This one’s going to be a low-scoring win for the Seahawks, leading into everybody writing off the Cardinals.

Dallas at Kansas City (-2.5)

I think it's safe to say Cowboys-Chiefs will be the most anticipated regular season game of the year. Arrowhead is going to be on fire. Two high powered offenses going at it. Should be fun.

— Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels) November 15, 2021

“Most anticipated regular season game of the season” seems like a stretch when we treated Brady vs. Belichick like it was the Super Bowl. You’ve got two pretty popular sides here though, and both seem to be on an upward trajectory. We think. Dallas is showing those yo-yo tendencies while Kansas City’s offense finally started looking like itself last weekend against the Raiders. In any event, it’s Patrick Mahomes vs. the Cowboys, and Fox is going to get a pretty huge rating for it.

Dak Prescott apparently needed a week to warm up, along with an inferior defense to take advantage of. He’s got another one of those this week. I think the Cowboys defense has a better chance of making a stop against Kansas City, which seems impossible to believe unless you’ve seen the Chiefs defense.

Pittsburgh at LA Chargers (-5.5)

Steelers and Chargers play Sunday night, and currently QB Ben Roethlisberger, S Minkah Fitzpatrick, DE Joey Bosa and DT Jerry Tillery are all on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. https://t.co/22UsuLk7zp

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 16, 2021

Theoretically this seemed like a pretty good choice for SUNDAY NIGHT IS FOOTBALL NIGHT. Shame everybody’s injured and both teams are coming off of embarrassing showings against NFC North teams. Pittsburgh is especially lacking in star talent on the offensive & defensive sides of the ball this week, so the Chargers look to be the pick here.

Monday, November 22

NY Giants at Tampa Bay (-11)

Daniel Jones has never won on primetime
Daniel Jones has never won in color rush uniforms

Tom Brady has lost two straight
Tom Brady is pissed

If the Giants win this game then this will be the best win ever since the Super Bowl vs Mr. Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr himself.

— Offsides (@GiantsPlzWin) November 16, 2021

You know everybody’s jumping on the Tom Brady is PISSED OFF bandwagon. The only problem with that is that I cited Tom Brady being PISSED OFF last week, and he went out there and lost to the Washington Football Team. Does it take longer to get mad when you get older? Given my experience with old people, I kinda doubt it.

That being said, the Buccaneers are 3-0 when favored by double-digits at home. They’ll probably win here, the question is if the defense can keep the Giants from getting too close. It largely depends on whether or not Saquon Barkley is playing or not. As I type this, it looks good for him. That might change, but until then I’m going to roll with the Giants to get within 11.

Last Week’s Results: 2-12

Overall Results: 63-84-3