The NFL season has arrived, and that means it’s time for your Week 1 picks, courtesy of our own Steve Cook! What does Cook have in mind for your favorite team?

Please allow me to introduce myself, I’m a man of little wealth and not much taste. You, dear reader, obviously have a tremendous amount of taste, as you’ve chosen to join me for another year of NFL picks. You might end up being of great wealth! As for me, I continue to live in a Commonwealth that will legalize sports betting around the same time that Churchill Downs goes out of business. So I won’t make or lose a dime based off any of my picks.

Doesn’t mean I won’t try, lie or die for you. Let’s make it happen!

Thursday, September 8

Buffalo (-2.5) at LA Rams

Rams CB Jalen Ramsey today isn't interested in handing out compliments to the Bills when asked about the challenges QB Josh Allen and WR Stefon Diggs present. I'm not up here to "blow smoke" Ramsey said, adding "I'm not about to sit up here and boost them up."

— Lindsey Thiry (@LindseyThiry) September 6, 2022

Jalen Ramsey doesn’t need to boost the Buffalo Bills up, as everybody else has taken care of that. It seems like every single NFL expert is picking the Bills to at the very least win the Super Bowl this year, if not win the next five and establish themselves as the next great sports dynasty. To be fair, there’s good reason to believe in Josh Allen & Stefon Diggs, who have proven to be a potent combination. There’s good reason to believe in the Bills’ defense, which I picked way too early in a fantasy draft last week. The addition of Von Miller to that Bills defense certainly adds a bit of drama to Thursday night’s proceedings, as he had a role to play in the Rams’ Super Bowl LVI victory. At least they won’t have to wait long to present him his ring or whatever ceremony they’ll do before the game.

I’d be surprised if the Rams weren’t back in Super Bowl contention this season. They lost Miller, but added Bobby Wagner to provide some experience. They lost Odell Beckham, but added Allen Robinson, a talented wide receiver that’s been saddled with some questionable quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford should be able to get the most out of Robinson. Some are concerned about Stafford’s elbow, but he’s been ok in the limited practice footage shown Cam Akers is healthy now, and he was a problem for other teams at running back when he was healthy. I know the in thing is to crown the Bills, but I’m not going to underestimate the Rams on Week 1 with all those good vibes.

Sunday, September 11

New Orleans (-5.5) at Atlanta

Toby is definitely a Falcons fan. https://t.co/Q5o0g0rUSg

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) September 6, 2022

We’ve got a couple of big rivalry games in Week 1, and the slander between Falcons & Saints fans is as strong as it ever has been. What’s not as strong as it ever has been is the QB situation, though it’s somewhat interesting to see the first two picks of the 2015 NFL Draft go at it.

Jameis Winston & Marcus Mariota have had some bumps in the road. They now find themselves on NFC South teams that have to play Tom Brady twice a season. Not ideal, but I could see both of these rosters making some noise down the road. Saints have the better team now, but I think the Falcons keep it close.

San Francisco (-7) at Chicago

Aye why are 49ers vs Bears tickets so expensive? You’d think Bears were coming off a SuperBowl championship or something. It cost over $200 to sit in the nosebleeds with God. That’s ridiculous lol.

— CROCK-MAN⚡️ (@eric_crocker) September 6, 2022

There are some high expectations in San Francisco this season, and it’s easy to see why. There’s also a big question mark over the 49ers situation, coming in the form of Trey Lance. Will he be the upgrade from Jimmy Garrapolo that fans & experts think he will be? 49ers are keeping Jimmy G around just in case, which apparently irks Lance. “Too bad” would be my response to Trey’s complaint.

The Bears…well, I’ll wait a week or two before completely throwing them under the bus. That said, the 49ers are the better team and the slightly easy pick here.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-6.5)

The #Bengals have defeated the Steelers 3 consecutive games with a combined score of 92-37.

The Bengals are currently -6.5 favorites for Sundays matchup.

— Blake Jewell (@BlakeJewellNFL) September 6, 2022

After decades of Steeler dominance in this rivalry, the Bengals have become the aggressors. As a Bengals fan, it’s been a great thing to see. Few things bring more joy to Bengals fans than their team kicking the crap out of the Steelers. One would think that will continue this Sunday, with Cincinnati operating at full strength & Pittsburgh potentially missing a key player or two. It sets up for a big Bengals victory, but there’s one thing that makes me wonder about all that.

The last Bengals game I attended took place on December 10, 2017. A forgettable season was drawing to a close as the Bengals hosted the Chicago Bears. The Bears actually had a worse record than the Bengals, but blew them out 33-7 in a game that seemed even less competitive than the score indicates. I honestly remembered Chicago’s quarterback having a better game than he did, but 271 yards, a rushing & passing touchdown with no mistakes is something you’ll take from Mitchell Trubisky every time. If he can avoid the mistakes and clear the way for Najee Harris to run over people, the Steelers can make this one closer than Bengals fans would prefer.

Philadelphia (-4) at Detroit

There really is not a single real reason the #Eagles should lose to the Lions

They have the better QB, better HC and better players at pretty much every single position

It's Week 1. No excuse for a letdown game or taking the Lions lightly.

A loss would be a disaster

— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) September 6, 2022

The Lions were the subject of this year’s Hard Knocks, which I didn’t see but has people believing they’re going to win at least 13 games. Eagles fans also believe their team will win at least 13 games, so this very well could be an NFC Championship Game preview.

Ok, probably not. Should still be a somewhat interesting game until the Eagles pull away in the 4th quarter.

New England at Miami (-3.5)

I'm not seeing that much, if any talk in the media this week about how the Dolphins tampered with Tom Brady while he was under contract to the Patriots and lost draft picks for it.

I'm sure that would also be the case here if the situation were reversed.

— Bruce Allen (@bruceallen) September 6, 2022

As usual, the Dolphins are getting tons of hype from people that think that 1972 was one year ago instead of fifty. As usual, the Dolphins made a ton of free agent signings that rocked the boat. Oh, and there’s also a new coach in Miami for approximately the 17th time since Bill Belichick took over in New England.

Forgive me for not buying into the Tua/Tyreek hype, but I’m not picking a rookie head coach over Bill Belichick no matter how much hype there is. Even if the Fins do win, they won’t get the Patriots by more than a field goal.

Baltimore (-7) at NY Jets

The Ravens, heavy favorites in Week 1, have lost just one season opener since 2016.

The Jets have won just one since 2016. https://t.co/XPqK955h9t

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) September 6, 2022

With Zach Wilson out until at least Week 4, it’s Joe Flacco SZN in New Jersey. Will Joey Flax get his revenge on the team that dumped him for Lamar Jackson?

Absolutely not. Ravens in a walk. Not sure I’m buying the AFC champion hype for them in some quarters, but if Jackson can stay healthy there just might be a chance.

Jacksonville at Washington (-2.5)

For those curious, Doug Pederson accumulated a 6-4 record against the Commanders in his five seasons as head coach in Philly (2016-20) and posted a 3-2 record at FedEx Field. #DUUUVAL

[ Per #Jaguars PR ]

— 𝐏𝐡𝐢𝐥 𝐒𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐡 🇵🇭 (@PhiltheFilipino) September 6, 2022

We’ve got quite possibly the two worst ownership groups in NFL history facing off here. As a Bengals fan for slightly over three decades, I never thought I would see worse than Mike Brown, but the old boy and his offspring got it right eventually. Mike didn’t have the football smarts of his old man, but enough traits got passed down through the generations, and we’ve arrived at a place where we can trust the Brown family again. I’m happy to be here for it. I can’t say I’d be too happy if I was a fan of either of these teams.

The Washington NFL franchise has been an embarrassment as long as I can remember, and before that since they insisted on using a racial slur as their nickname until just recently. Add in all the backstage nonsense, and it’s tough to see how people can justify rooting for the Commanders unless they live in the District of Columbia. I will say that “Commanders” is a better nickname than “Football Team” & “Racial Slur”, so at least they have that going for them. If not an actual good team, because I don’t see much in that regard. There’s nothing telling me that the Washington Commanders are going to be a team to reckon with in 2022.

Then we’ve got the Jags. My Lord. This is a team that’s been relevant once in the last fourteen seasons. They somehow made it to the AFC Championship Game in 2017, and we thought that might be a good sign for the future. Turns out it wasn’t! The Khan family bought this team in 2012, and that 2017 season was the one time they won more than six games. Not great. The Khan family bought Fulham F.C. in 2013, and immediately got that club sunk into the second division before making them a yo-yo team. Maybe they stick this time around, but it’ll take some time to make people take them seriously in the Premier League.

Then there’s the wrestling promotion they run. Which was going well for a minute before egos got too big. Don’t get me wrong. Unlike many wrestling writers you read, I want All Elite Wrestling to succeed. I admit my “bias” there. If for no other reason than it gives another place for professional wrestlers to work their craft. WWE can’t hire everybody, even though they’ve tried in the past. The more viable wrestling promotions there are, the more places wrestlers can work, and the more topics there are for people like me to write about.

I love gossip as much as the next person. I’ve been hooked on all the AEW backstage controversy recently. At the same time, I realize that it’s not healthy. CM Punk might be something of a draw, and I’ve enjoyed his contributions to AEW television. Is he worth all the headaches and the drama? Should the Young Bucks be helping run a promotion when they’re getting in backstage altercations with talent? I don’t have the answers to these questions, if I did I’d probably be in the business. As a fan of TV wrestling, I hope that Tony Khan has the answers to these questions. Jon Moxley at least seems to.

I guess I’ll go with the Commanders. Tough to have much faith in either of these organizations.

Cleveland at Carolina (-1.5)

I DON’T CARE THAT YOUR QB WAS TRADED TO THE PANTHERS WHO THE BROWNS PLAY IN THEIR FIRST GAME THIS SUNDAY! WE’RE GOING TO COSTCO ON SUNDAY TO STOCK UP FOR THE WINTER AND GET FREE SAMPLES! pic.twitter.com/dWPt4idru1

— CleWest (@erjmanlasvegas) September 5, 2022

You might have heard about this: Baker Mayfield now plays for the Panthers. See, the Browns decided they needed to trade for Deshaun Watson and give him a ridiculous signing bonus because…well, nobody’s been able to explain that one to me yet.

Usually when guys end up in legal trouble due to forcing themselves on women, teams can pick them up at a discounted rate. That way, when fans complain about it, the team can at least say they got them on the cheap. Not Cleveland! They threw all the money they could at the current most hated player in the NFL. Fortunately, most of their fans seem dumb enough to go along with it. Not that it really matters for this week, as we won’t be seeing Watson for quite awhile.

Even with the question mark at QB, the Browns still have a much better roster than Carolina. I think that’s enough to take them as road dogs that belong in a pound.

Indianapolis (-7) at Houston

Since 2010 the Colts are 1-11 straight up in Week 1.

I know I’m not the only one that vividly remembers 2020 against the Jags where half of survivor pools went down. Texans +8.5 for the mortgage 🔨🔨

— Full Slate Podcast (@Full_Slate_Pod) September 6, 2022

Matt Ryan vs Davis Mills! Gonna be tough to get used to seeing Matty Ice playing AFC South teams all the time instead of NFC South teams. I see no reason why the Colts should have a problem here, which is why the Texans will likely keep things close. Maybe Matty helps the Colts regain my trust after the debacle that happened at the end of last season. It’ll take some time.

NY Giants at Tennessee (-5.5)

The #Giants have lost their last FIVE season openers dating back to 2016 when they beat DAL 20-19.
In those five losses, they haven't topped 17 points and have averaged 12.8.
It would be such a nice moment for fans if they could win in a shootout v. TEN this Sunday. Do it Daboll.

— Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) September 6, 2022

Speaking of debacles at the end of last season, most Titans fans would describe their team’s loss to the Bengals in the Divisional Playoff Round as a debacle. Nashville had high hopes for their boys, only to come up short and prove those mean experts that spent most of last season doubting the Titans right. A shame for them.

They get an easy start this season, as the Giants don’t seem likely to turn heads. The Titans came up short in moments like this last year, but I think they’ll be ready for Week 1.

Green Bay (-1.5) at Minnesota

If you're going to the Vikings game on Sunday, you'll be a part of a little history.

The Vikings have never hosted the Packers in a Week 1 game with fans in attendance. That changes this weekend.

— Dustin Baker (@DustBaker) September 5, 2022

I’ve seen more than one NFL expert pick Kirk Cousins as the MVP for this coming season. This seems absolutely insane to me. Am I missing something? I’m sure I’m missing a lot of things, but I’m also sure that Kirk Cousins won’t be the MVP of this season. Yes, he has Justin Jefferson to throw the ball to, and Dalvin Cook to hand the ball to. Wouldn’t voters be smart enough to realize that Kirk has two great talents to work with instead of giving him credit for all of it?

They’ll end up voting for Aaron Rodgers anyway, so it’s all a moot point. Packers gonna win here.

Kansas City (-5.5) at Arizona

If I were a betting man I’d hammer the Kansas City Chiefs point spread against the Arizona Cardinals right now before it continues to escalate. Started at 3.5 and is now at 6.

— Pranav Sriraman (@PranavSriraman) September 6, 2022

Wednesday night for me featured a fantasy draft. It was a friends league with some people I’ve known since childhood, along with their friends since I have none. I’ve won this league three of the last four years, so the pressure is on for me to keep the pain coming. Ended up drafting Patrick Mahomes in the fifth round, since having him worked out pretty well for me last year. My non-Internet BFF who was picking right behind me went with Kyler Murray with the next pick. I texted him afterwards talking shit because I assumed he got rattled by my picking Mahomes right before he could. He swore that had nothing to do with it. Which tells me that some people still think Kyler Murray could be a great QB in this league.

I hope it works out for them! I’ll take Patrick & the Chiefs this week & most other weeks.

Las Vegas at LA Chargers (-3.5)

#Raiders vs #Chargers in season openers since 2006:

2012: Chargers 22, Raiders 14
2009: Chargers 24, Raiders 20
2006: Chargers 27, Raiders 0 pic.twitter.com/naFHNqUOl6

— chargers.content (@ChargersContent) September 6, 2022

Now, stats like the one above can be misleading. The Raiders were still in Oakland for those previous games. The Chargers were still in San Diego. Not to mention completely different rosters & coaching staffs.  Times have changed.

Heck, they’ve changed since last season. The Raiders went and got themselves Davante Adams, one of the most dangerous weapons in the league. The Chargers made no such additions, but everybody is presumably a year older & better. This feels like another one of those close games to me, so I’m going to pick the Raiders as the underdog getting within a field goal or so.

Tampa Bay (-2.5) at Dallas

Man, it’s been a rough month for Notre Dame fans. Between tonight’s loss, the Yankees’ collapse, and a tough first game for the Cowboys against the Buccaneers, it couls be a long fall.

— Norm Charlatan (@normcharlatan) September 4, 2022

Our first Sunday night game this season features two of the media’s favorite things: Tom Brady & the Dallas Cowboys! We love talking about them and hyping them up. There is a big difference between the two: Brady is worth every bit of hype he’s gotten over the past two decades, while the Cowboys haven’t lived up to their hype since before Brady entered the league. Think about how long that’s been.

I’m still not betting against Brady or the Buccaneers, especially against a surely overhyped Cowboy team. Now, last year’s opener was a bit closer than expected, but the line’s less lopsided this year. Bucs can easily win this by a field goal.

Monday, September 12

Denver (-6.5) at Seattle

New Seahawks captain Tyler Lockett on good friend Russell Wilson’s return Monday night with the Broncos: “I get it…but I think Seattle should cheer him on for everything that he’s done. He’s an amazing guy.” @thenewstribune pic.twitter.com/xXuDJyMrAd

— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) September 6, 2022

Many of us felt that the Broncos were a quarterback away from being a real contender in 2021. Teddy Bridgewater & Drew Lock both tried, but neither was what Denver needed to get over the hump. The Broncos looked to fix this issue during the off-season, and made a big splash by acquiring Russell Wilson from the Seahawks. Now, the Broncos have become a favorite of the experts, getting picked to make the playoffs even though they haven’t had a winning season since 2016 and are in a historically difficult division. Six games with the Chiefs, Chargers & Raiders doesn’t sound ideal.

Usually, a trip to Seattle to start the season wouldn’t be ideal either. The Seahawks have one of the best homefield advantages in all of football. The 12th Man is a real thing. However, it’s no secret that the Seahawks aren’t exactly top contenders anymore. Those players that led Seattle to greatness in the 2010s have moved on. Wilson was one of the last ones left, and now he’ll be returning to Seattle in a different uniform. The fans will cheer him, even if they still have a healthy disdain for Denver from their days in the 5-team AFC West. I think Wilson has a successful homecoming, and the Broncos win in relatively easy fashion.