After a big Week 9, can Steve Cook get his overall NFL picks record above .500 this week? Check inside, follow along, and find out!

Hi, hello & welcome to Week 10! I’m Steve Cook, and from what I can tell everybody’s survived the recent election in one piece. I guess there’s still time for things to fall apart and the streets to fall into anarchy, but it looks like things are basically going to run as normal for the time being. That means we can focus on how to make money off of the National Football League.

We’ve done pretty well lately. Two straight winning weeks has us on the road back to .500. It’s not the best place to be in, but not the worst either. Let’s see what we can do on a week where I can’t over-react to the most recent Bengals game. Odds are provided by Vegas Insider Consensus as of Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday, November 10

Atlanta (-3) at Carolina

The Panthers are debuting their black helmets to go along with their all black uniforms this Thursday night against the Falcons. pic.twitter.com/73ELf1jSx5

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 8, 2022

While this Thursday night offering probably doesn’t turn heads of casual football fans, these two teams just had a ripsnorter of a game back in Week 8. You wouldn’t think that perception of teams has changed that much since then…but did you see the Panthers’ follow-up effort in Week 9? It wasn’t much of an effort. The Falcons have Cordarrelle Patterson back in the lineup, an identity on offense, and have won their last four games in Raleigh. Tough to argue against them here.

Sunday, November 13

Seattle vs. Tampa Bay (-3)

London has been kissing frogs for most of 15 years, and Germany pulls Seahawks-Buccaneers in its first try.

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) November 7, 2022

The NFL makes its debut in Munich this Sunday with one of the league’s true superstars against a team that’s proven to be better than advertised. It’s the league’s first trip to Germany since a 1994 exhibition game, and there seems to be a taste for American football in the country if ticket requests are any indication. They should get a pretty good game for their re-introduction to the other type of football.

The Seahawks have won four straight games and have put themselves in good position to make at least an appearance in the playoffs. Kenneth Walker is making me look like a genius for picking him in my Dynasty League rookie draft. (We won’t mention the Packers WR I took that hasn’t done diddly poo.) Meanwhile, the Bucs have been struggling but there are two reasons for hope:

1. The NFC South is downright abysmal and somebody has to go to the playoffs
2. Tom Brady led a game-winning drive against the Rams

Yep, Tom Brady…IS BACK! (And if you look at his stats in a vacuum…sure seems like he never left.) Now he goes overseas, where he’s been downright unbeatable. I’ve been wary of trusting Brady in general this season, but when the lights are on bright is when he’s at his best, and this game’s going to be huge in Munich. I’ll take the Buccaneers.

Detroit at Chicago (-3)

Tua Tagovailoa had back-to-back 300 yards games for the first time in his career against the Lions and Bears.

Oh my.

— Jason Sarney (@Jason_Sarney) November 7, 2022

The Lions stunned most of us by getting a win over a team & quarterback they’ve had problems defeating ever since anybody can remember. We’ll talk about that poopshow of a team later. Detroit’s defense finally managed to shut somebody down last week, so it’s fair to wonder if they can do that two weeks in a row.

My guess? Probably not. Justin Fields had himself a game on Sunday against the Dolphins, and I’d expect more of the same this week. The Bears should be able to defend their homefield here.

Minnesota at Buffalo (-3.5)

Vikings voodoo is so powerful this year that they might beat even beat the Bills and still have it dismissed as a fraudulent win https://t.co/lMmeTDMryX

— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) November 7, 2022

As this column is being written, I don’t know whether or not Josh Allen is going to play or what kind of shape his elbow is actually in. That’s a pretty big deal, as the Bills would be a completely different team without him. You could do worse than Case Keenum as a backup, but you obviously won’t be getting the same level of production. That’d be a bad thing against a Vikings team that’s been pretty darn good this season and could use a big win to make people take them seriously. I’d take the Vikings, and wish I’d taken the Vikings when it opened at Buffalo (-8.5). Then again, if the Vikings end up the favorites, and Josh Allen ends up playing, forget everything I said here.

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-9.5)

At first I thought this read Chiefs-Jaguars https://t.co/OCxyQZSblC

— UCF Jaguar (@UCF_Jaguar) November 8, 2022

The Jaguars have certainly improved from where they were, but they’ve still lost ten straight games on the road. I don’t see them breaking that streak in Kansas City, but the question is if they can make things close. Unfortunately, I don’t see it happening. The Chiefs should be able to score enough points on the Jag defense to prevent a classic comeback.

New Orleans (-1.5) at Pittsburgh

Over the past five seasons, the Steelers are 5-0 after the bye week.

A matchup against the Saints, who are banged up and coming off a short week, gives the Steelers a big chance to keep the post-bye winning streak alive.

— Daniel Valente (@StatsGuyDaniel) November 8, 2022

There are certain fanbases that exhibit a tremendous amount of confidence in their team at all times. If you listened to Steelers fans this season, you’d assume that their team was destined to end up winning the AFC North and make a run to the Super Bowl. I wish I had the level of confidence in anything that Steelers fans have in their team. It must be nice!

That said, I do have a lot of confidence in the Steelers this week as well. Coming off of a bye with TJ Watt headed back into the lineup against a reeling team with Andy Dalton? How are the Saints favored here? I know Pittsburgh has looked pretty awful at times this season, but the Saints haven’t been looking that much better. I must be missing something. Let’s hope that I am, and that Steeler fan confidence is completely misplaced.

Houston at NY Giants (-4.5)

The Giants are on a stretch at home that's seen them go an incredible 14-1-1 to the UNDER since Nov. 15, 2020.

On Sunday, they host the Texans who average 16.6 PPG. The total is at 41.

— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) November 8, 2022

This opened at Giants (-6.5), but has gotten closer in the ensuing days. People probably came to a similar conclusion as me: I like the Giants to win, but am not sure about them winning by a wide margin. The G-Men tend to win close games against everybody, whether they’re good or bad. The Texans would definitely fall into the latter column.

However, the Texans do have Dameon Pierce, who ran all over the Eagles on Thursday night and will be facing the 31st best run defense in the NFL. I’m seeing another close game where the Texans come up a little bit short, and we’ll spend another week wondering whether or not the Giants are for real.

Cleveland at Miami (-3.5)

Browns/Dolphins spiderman meme pic.twitter.com/5ZEHOzKfPi

— Cory (@realcorykinnan) November 8, 2022

The Browns are coming off of a bye after a big Monday night win over Cincinnati, and their fans are pretty well convinced this all leads to Deshaun Watson leading the Browns to a huge winning streak, the playoffs and the next five Super Bowls. I’m not as convinced. I am convinced that this will be a high scoring game without a ton of defense being played. The question is if Nick Chubb & the rest of the Browns offense can keep up with Tyreek Hill and a Dolphins offense that’s been on fire lately.

I think it’ll be close. I think the Dolphins still win this game, but it feels like one of those field goal games like they had last week. Take the Browns as road doggs.

Denver at Tennessee (-2.5)

#Broncos game plan vs. #Titans next week:

Put 11 (hats) on 22.

— Zack Kelberman (@KelbermanNFL) November 7, 2022

It’s tricky. The Broncos have had success containing Derrick Henry in their three previous meetings. The Bronos defense is their calling card this season. However, their rushing defense doesn’t seem especially good. Can Henry overcome previous odds and go off against the Broncos this time?

I think so. The Titans will be PISSED OFF after coming so close in Kansas City, and will want to get back on the right track at home.

Indianapolis at Las Vegas (-5.5)

Raiders vs. Colts on Sunday 🍿 pic.twitter.com/Fp13TOALsI

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 7, 2022

This is one of those games where I have no idea what to tell you. The Colts just hired Jeff Saturday off of ESPN to be their head coach. In fairness, Saturday’s been a Colt most of his life at this point. He was the center for most of Peyton Manning’s career with the Colts and was inducted into the Colts’ Ring of Honor back in 2015. This is pretty much equivalent to the Bengals hiring Andrew Whitworth as head coach, or the Browns hiring Joe Thomas. It doesn’t seem like a wise decision, but it’s hard to root against big lugs that kept your quarterback reasonably safe all those years.

Against most teams, the Colts would be the obvious underdogs this week with an inexperienced coach & a quarterback that has no business starting games in the NFL. They’re playing against the Raiders, a team that could mess up a wet dream. They’ve blown leads of 17+ points three times this season. If any team out there could make Jeff Saturday’s first foray into NFL coaching a successful one, it would be the Las Vegas Raiders.

I can’t do it. The Colts are just too much of a mess. The Raiders are a mess too, but at least they have some sort of continuity and the homefield advantage. Go with the Raiders…but watch that line. If it gets up in the double digits, I might have second thoughts.

Dallas (-5) at Green Bay

the juxtaposition of the rest of the NFL writing off the Packers while the entire Cowboys’ fandom holds its breath in fear and resentment, is just perfect https://t.co/gDDnEmUQCE

— David Helman (@davidhelman_) November 7, 2022

It doesn’t get much bigger than Cowboys vs. Packers. One of those historical rivalries with franchises steeped in tradition and whatnot. Even if the teams aren’t good, it’ll be the most hyped matchup and shown in the most TV markets any day it’s played on. There’s some added drama to this meeting, as Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy will be returning to the city where he led a Super Bowl champion what seems like at least thirty years ago. It also seems like at least thirty years ago that Aaron Rodgers was the top quarterback in the league and somewhat sane.

The Packers are now on a five game losing streak and looking for answers in all the wrong places. I see this as one of those moments where we find out if a team is for real. Specifically: the Cowboys. If the Cowboys don’t beat the Packers by five points, or if they find a way to lose, we’ll know they’re the frauds that they usually are. A Packer win could turn their whole season around. For the sake of new narratives, and ushering Rodgers off the stage, I’m hoping the Cowboys pull it out.

Arizona at LA Rams (-1.5)

Odds to win the NFC West, per @fboutsiders:

Seahawks, 64.2%
49ers, 32.7%
Rams, 2.9%
Cardinals, 0.2%

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) November 8, 2022

The Rams’ Super Bowl Hangover has continued to the point where one has to consider the option that this just isn’t a great football team anymore. The Cardinals have had glimpses of being a great football team at times in recent years, and DeAndre Hopkins seemed to give the offense new life the first two weeks he was back. Things looked back to normal against Seattle.

The Rams have owned the Cardinals in recent years, having gone 11-2 against Arizona since moving back to Los Angeles. I see that trend continuing on Sunday.

LA Chargers at San Francisco (-7)

I don’t know what this means, I just find it interesting:

The Chargers’ last three wins have been decided by a *combined* eight points.

Seven of the 49ers eight games this season have each been decided by nine points or more — win or loss.

— Chris Hayre (@chrishayre) November 8, 2022

Hopefully you guys are ready to see a lot of the LA Chargers. The Chargers will be on the next two Sunday night productions. Hopefully the Chargers will be ready for prime time. They’re 5-3 and have done just enough to win most of their games. With the exception of a ten point win against the Texans, all of their games have been close. Well, except for two losses suffered at the hands of the Jaguars & Seahawks. Those weren’t close.

We’re all buying into the 49ers now that they have Christian McCaffrey. They certainly looked the part against the Rams before their bye week. Can they make it two straight wins over LA teams? I think so. I also think the Chargers keep it closer than they did against the Seahawks.

Monday, November 14

Washington at Philadelphia (-10.5)

Commanders beat the 11-0 Steelers in 2020 on MNF

We now play the 8-0 Eagles on MNF

Will history repeat itself? pic.twitter.com/rzm6potdDU

— Wam Asa (@TerryFor6ixxx) November 4, 2022

The Eagles are getting plenty of time off before hosting the Commanders, who made a respectable showing of themselves against the Vikings. Each of Washington’s last five games have been decided by five points or less. Can they continue the trend and keep it close with the undefeated Eagles?

I think they can. The Eagles will win, but Taylor Heinicke can lead the Commanders to some garbage time glory on a Monday night.

Week 9 Results: 8-5
Overall Results: 64-69-4