Steve Cook is back with your gambling picks for Week 9 of the NFL season, starting with a huge Philadelphia Eagles spread!

Hi, hello and welcome to Week 9 of the National Football League! I’m Steve Cook, and last week was a rare occasion…we got a winning record in the picks! Granted, it was only 8-7, but it’s a start. Now we make the second half push and make everybody forget about whatever happened in the first half.

You probably noticed there were a bunch of trades in the NFL this past week. I don’t think we’ll see the true impact of these trades for some time yet. Players need a week or three to get acclimated in their new surroundings. Some of them never really get acclimated. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out, but I’m definitely not over-reacting this week over some teams’ new acquisitions. The departures are the bigger effect this week, as teams won’t have replacements for some of these people until next off-season.

Let’s get it started with some totally on-topic baseball conversation. Odds via  Vegas Insider Consensus as of Wednesday evening.

Thursday, November 3

Philadelphia (-14) at Houston

The Eagles and Texans will meet on Thursday night in Houston while the Phillies and Astros are scheduled to play World Series Game 5 in Philadelphia.

ELIAS: It will mark the 7th time a World Series and NFL game take place on the same day, involving the same two metro areas. pic.twitter.com/inwBfZdviP

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 1, 2022

The Houston Astros have won over 100 games four out of the last five full MLB regular seasons. They’ve won the AL West each of those seasons, and even made it to the ALCS in the 60-game 2020 season they struggled in. (We tend not to recognize 2020 since it wasn’t a full season with fans and such.) Their plan of losing as many games as possible early in the 2010s to ensure higher draft positioning & a better chance to draft the best players helped lead to what we see now, a game where approximately a third of the franchises have no intention of competing for the playoffs before the season even starts. Tanking doesn’t work as well when a good percentage of the league does it, but that won’t stop these owners & general managers from trying.

The Astros changed the way MLB does business. It’s led to a ton of wins, but only one World Series Championship, one which has been marred by later revelations that the Astros cheated to get it. Since then they’ve lost two World Series and seem to be on the verge of losing a third as I type this.

While the Astros have gon on their run, the Philadelphia Phillies have more or less run themselves like a traditional baseball team. They had their share of struggles after the core that led them to a championship in 2008 aged out of its prime. There were a couple of seasons where they lost over 90 games. We’ve mostly chalked that up to poor management, not an insidious plan to put the worst product on the field possible. They made their way up to mediocrity the past couple of years. I mean, they signed Bryce Harper. You don’t see tanking teams doing things like that.

Then they struggled early this season and fired their manager. Rob Thomson stepped in on June 3, and whatever he sold that Phillies roster, they totally bought in. They were the last team to make it into an expanded postseason, but they might be the last team standing when it’s all said & done. Whether they end up winning the whole thing or not, they’ve had a successful season. Meanwhile, the Astros won 106 games and are on the verge of disaster. Pretty wild.

It’s funny how things turn out. By all rights, the Astros & Los Angeles Dodgers should have dominated recent years & traded championships back & forth based off of their regular season records. Instead, one franchise has one championship marred by cheating, while the other has one championship marred by it taking place in a 60 game season. It’s a great era to be one that has to exist off of schadenfreude.

I didn’t really have a point for writing all of this other than I’d rather write about baseball than an easy Eagles win on a Thursday night. The fact it involves both cities in the World Series made for a viable excuse.

Sunday, November 6

Carolina at Cincinnati (-7.5)

In less than 24 hours:

Bengals offense is totally inept w/out Ja'Marr Chase in 19-pt loss to 2-5 team.

Defense loses arguably most important player.

Deadline provides help to neither.

Not sure how fans are supposed feel anything other than disappointment/frustration/unease.

— Mo Egger (@MoEgger) November 1, 2022

How things can change in one week’s time. After the Cincinnati Bengals looked like the Bengals we expected in 2022 against the Atlanta Falcons, folks started to believe they could make their way back to the top of the AFC. Then Ja’Marr Chase was diagnosed with a hip injury, leaving Joe Burrow without his best friend & security blanket for 4-6 weeks. This led to Zac Taylor’s offense not really having any idea of what to do against the Browns, and another prime time humiliation for a frachise that’s used to it at this point. Add in a torn ACL for Chidobe Awuzie, who had been the Bengals’ top CB, and it’s tough to see much reason for optimism in Cincinnati.

One possible reason: The Carolina Panthers come to town this week. The Panthers haven’t shown many signs of life this season…at least until the last two weeks when they blew out Tampa Bay and took the Falcons to overtime. One can wonder whether having good games against their NFC South teams means anything at this point, but at least it’s something. One of those teams will host a playoff game.

This one could go either way. I could see the Bengals stumbling again, heading into their bye week with little hope for the rest of the season. I could also see the Bengals blowing the Panthers out and providing the fans with some good ol’ false hope. I’m going with the former, as ever since PJ Walker took over the QB position in Carolina, the Panthers haven’t just been the coolest, they haven’t just been the best, they’ve been Justin…Credible.

LA Chargers (-3) at Atlanta

This weekend’s Chargers-Falcons matchup has to be one of the biggest disparities in drop backs per game in the modern era. Justin Herbert in 7 starts this year is averaging 46.8 drop backs per game. Marcus Mariota in 8 starts this year is averaging just 27 drop backs per game.

— Guilty As Charged Podcast (@GACPodcast17) October 31, 2022

The Chargers give up nearly 6 yards per carry with the worst rush defense in the NFL. This doesn’t bode well when you’re playing against a team that runs the ball pretty much all the time. Falcons have a pretty good shot of staying atop the dirty NFC South.

Las Vegas (-1.5) at Jacksonville

Calvin Ridley is suspended in part because he bet the #Falcons to beat the #Jaguars last season.

Now he's on the #Jaguars. Un-freakin-real.

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 1, 2022

Both of these teams have two wins and are looking for answers. Neither has really earned my trust, especially the Raiders with their disappearing act in New Orleans next week. I would have liked to see more out of the Jags last week, but at least they’ve got Travis Etienne producing at a good rate. I’ll take the Jaguars as the home doggs.

Miami (-5) at Chicago

Solid Dolphins scheduling: Face Ravens before they trade for Roquan Smith, play Bears after they trade away Roquan Smith 👌

— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) October 31, 2022

The Dolphins & Bears were both pretty active at the Trade Deadline. Miami traded for a bunch of people while Chicago traded away some people, then traded for Chase Claypool at the last minute like they didn’t want anybody else to have him. Well, whatever works. The Dolphins have become favorites to move up the standings late in the season and should be able to win a high-scoring game here. I just don’t think Justin Fields & Chase Claypool can keep up with Tua. Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle.

Indianapolis at New England (-5.5)

The #Patriots play the #Colts on Sunday who in the last eight days have:

– Benched Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger
– Fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady
– Traded receiving back Nyheim Hines to Buffalo

— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) November 1, 2022

The Colts broke the Patriots’ eight-game winning streak over them last season, and are looking to start one of their own this week. Unfortunately, Sam Ehlinger didn’t exactly set the world on fire last week, and the Patriots defense had a pretty easy time dealing with Zach Wilson. You’ve got an offense that turns the ball over more than any other in the league facing a defense that gets more turnovers than anybody else. Advantage Patriots.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit

The Colts gave up Nyheim Hines

The Lions gave up TJ Hockenson

The Packers gave up

— cooterdoodle (@cooterdoodle) November 1, 2022

On one hand, it was a bit surprising to see the Lions trade T.J. Hockenson to a division rival. On the other hand, at least it wasn’t the Packers. The last thing most Lions fans would want to see is one of their former star players catching passes from Aaron Rodgers and helping that team turn its season around. They don’t have to worry about that.

What they do have to worry about: Aaron Rodgers & the Packers’ offense finally figuring things out against a team they’ve owned for a couple of decades now. I’m taking the Packers mostly because I trust anybody against the Lions’ defense at this point.

Minnesota (-3.5) at Washington

Commanders Vs Vikings is not a Kirk Cousins revenge game. Its a Taylor Heinicke revenge game pic.twitter.com/KFoFuFlPje

— 𝕊𝕨𝟛𝟛ℙ (@JahanOROTY) October 31, 2022

I think Commanders fans are more interested in the idea of Daniel Snyder selling their team than anything happening on the football field here in 2022. Tough to blame them, I myself almost wonder what an ownership change for one of my beloved sports teams would be like. The Reds haven’t had one since 2006, and I can’t say I remember most of what happened in 2006. The Bengals have always been owned by the Brown family, which seems like less of a problem now that Mike Brown’s heirs seem to be decent folk. Dan Snyder does not seem like decent folk, and my feeling is that Washington football fans will celebrate his departure even more than fans of other franchises celebrate Super Bowl Championships. They might even make some t-shirts for the occasion.

The Vikings remain undervalued by most pundits, who cite their schedule as the main reason not to buy into the Viking Experience. I do think they’ll win this week, but I also think our guy Taylor Heinicke will keep it close to Kirk Cousins in a shootout. Take those Commanders.

Buffalo (-12.5) at NY Jets

How the #Jets can beat the Bills.

1) score a TD on defense or specials
2) ZW has the best game of his life
3) God does us a solid for once

— The Buffalo Jet Fan (@BuffaloJetFan) November 1, 2022

Yeah, the Bills will win the game. The question is if they can beat the Jets by a large enough number for us to bet on them. I’m guessing not, as the Jets have a pretty solid defense and these AFC East games have a tendency to be a bit low scoring. I’ll say the Bills win by the same 10 points they won by last week, so take the Jets, who have been a bit on fire against the spread of late.

Seattle at Arizona (-2)

The Seahawks/Cardinals series is without question the most bizarre in SEA franchise history. It's not really close. Good luck handicapping it. I've been staying away from this matchup for years now. The series history is astronomically weird. Take a look.

— Steve Sandmeyer (@SteveSandmeyer) October 31, 2022

The Seahawks kept things rolling last week, beating a highly-rated Giants team by two touchdowns. The Cardinals came up short against the Vikings, though they scored a ton more points against Minnesota than they did against Seattle in Week 6. The Cardinals are the favorite here, but I see Geno Smith leading the Seahawks to the ol’ season sweep and increasing Seattle’s hold on the NFC West.

LA Rams at Tampa Bay (-3)

The Rams and Buccaneers are a combined 4-11 against the spread 😬 pic.twitter.com/Qt10S7vlY9

— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) November 1, 2022

I remember when these two teams were widely considered the best in the NFC. We’re all still surprised that didn’t happen, as the experts are reluctant to name a good team in the NFC other than the Eagles. They expected these teams to hold those slots, and that hasn’t happened. The Bucs are in the midst of a five-game losing streak, which is pretty amazing since Tom Brady hadn’t had a three-game losing streak before this season. They’re breaking records in Tampa.

I see no reason to trust either of these teams. When that happens, I go with the underdog, even if it’s a Rams team that’s bit me a few times this season.

Tennessee at Kansas City (-12.5)

The Chiefs are 2-5 vs. the Titans under Andy Reid, including playoffs. It's their second-worst record vs. any team (1-3 vs. Bengals) pic.twitter.com/eSzt2CTFCU

— Jordan Dajani (@JordanDajani) November 1, 2022

I get it. Even though both Tennessee & Kansas City sit on top of their respective divisions at 5-2, it’s much easier to buy into the Chiefs’ hype. They have Patrick Mahomes and seemingly everybody in the world on offense. Meanwhile, the Titans have been getting fat off of AFC South games and sit at a -6 point differential for the season. If given the choice between watching a Chiefs game and a Titans game, about 95% of us would take the Chiefs every time.

This whole ATS thing isn’t a popularity contest though. It’s about whether or not a team that blew Kansas City out last season and has won four out of the last five games has the Chiefs’ number or not. It’s like the Bengals vs. Browns MNF game last week, Sure, the Bengals had the sexier team on paper, but the Browns had their number. The Titans have the Chiefs’ number. I’m not smart enough to tell you why, I’m just smart enough to tell you the Titans will probably keep it within the spread.

Monday, November 7

Baltimore (-2.5) at New Orleans

With the Bengals' loss to Browns, the Ravens (5-3) currently don't face a team with a winning record in their final 9 games:

@ Saints (3-5)
vs. Panthers (2-6)
@ Jaguars (2-6)
vs. Broncos (3-5)
@ Steelers (2-6)
@ Browns (3-5)
vs. Falcons (4-4)
vs. Steelers (2-6)
@ Bengals (4-4)

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) November 1, 2022

The Saints had their best outing of the season last week, blanking Las Vegas behind the legs of Alvin Kamara. They made enough plays on defense to make up for Andy Dalton and some of the other missing parts on offense. The Ravens have quite a few missing parts themselves, along with a couple of parts that are still kinda attached but aren’t really doing anything. It’s quite the situation if you’re a fantasy owner with Ravens players.

Fortunately for Baltimore fans, the Ravens have been doing well enough without getting consistent fantasy points from certain players or positions. They’re the pick on Monday night…some people will tell you that Lamar Jackson can’t win the big one, but I know Andy Dalton can’t.

Week 8 Results: 8-7
Overall Results: 56-64-4