It’s time for the NFL Divisional Playoffs! Eight teams remain–four will advance! Steve Cook has your stone cold lock winners for this weekend’s games, for entertainment purposes, of course.

Hi, hello & welcome to the Divisional Round! Somewhat lame name aside, this is thought of by many to be the best weekend of NFL action every year. Two games on Saturday, two games on Sunday, all with teams that matter. No having to deal with the likes of the Bears, Texans, Colts & other teams that could be in this spot in a couple of years, but currently serve as punchlines. Heck, looking at some of these teams here tells me that you could see the Bears, Texans and/or Colts here next year. That’s the NFL for ya.

Most of the expected suspects are still with us. The Chiefs & Bills were the most talked about AFC contenders heading into the season. The Bengals were defending AFC Champions, and while many experts wanted to cast them aside, they couldn’t quite do that. San Francisco was expected to do big things. Maybe the NFC East teams weren’t considered contenders by most, but we love talking about them anyway. I don’t think anybody saw the Jags coming…but nobody saw the Bengals coming last year, so that’s their spot.

People thought last week’s slate of games wouldn’t deliver. They were wrong. Don’t even try to act like this week’s slate won’t be a good time. Let’s get to the picks!

Saturday, January 21

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-8.5)

this year will be the 6th straight year that either the Jaguars or Chiefs are in the AFC Championship

kings of the conference if you ask me

— Adam Stites (@AdamStites_) January 18, 2023

Most teams that use the “NOBODY BELIEVED IN US” philosophy use it in spite of what the reality is. The Patriots used it for years after winning a ton of Super Bowls, even though almost everybody was picking them. They’d find the one poor schmuck that thought that somebody might beat Belichick & Brady, then use them as proof that nobody believed.

Back when these two teams faced off in Week 10, the Jacksonville Jaguars were 4-5. They’d won their first three, lost their next three, and seemed well on pace to a forgettable, mediocre season. Which still would have been a big step up for Doug Pederson’s first season and a sign of hope for the future. KC won that game 27-17, then moved on with their lives, surely confident that they wouldn’t be seeing Trevor Lawrence & company again. A funny thing happened: Jacksonville won some games, Tennessee lost a bunch of games, and somehow the Jags ended up in the playoffs. Then they were supposed to lose to the Chargers, as football experts keep telling me that Justin Herbert is the best quarterback in football. The Jags didn’t lose to the Chargers, even though they were down 27-0 and making my Jags moneyline bet look pretty darn silly. Now I only wish I’d made the bet at halftime instead of pregame.

The Jags got something going. Now, it’s completely possible that the Chiefs snuff it out since they’re the Chiefs and that’s what they do. Given the NFL booking team’s inclination towards close games these days, I’m thinking the Jaguars keep things within a touchdown and make Chiefs fans sweat. Maybe rob a bank or two, whatever they do when times are stressful.

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-7.5)

There's a guy walking around Pattison Avenue near the NovaCare Complex with this pic.twitter.com/9jKIytkiO8

— Chris Franklin (@cfranklinnews) January 17, 2023

The Eagles have already defeated the Giants twice this season, with neither game ending up all that close. In fairness to the Giants, they were resting most of their players for that Week 18 game since they already had the 6 seed wrapped up. Can they make things closer this time?

Absolutely. For one thing, Daniel Jones is playing as well as we’ve ever seen him play. Saquon Barkley is doing his typical thing of running all over everybody. The Eagles were dominant for most of the regular season, but Jalen Hurts’ shoulder injury put a bit of a damper on that. He’s expected to play this week, but it’s thought that the shoulder will still be a problem for him. Not ideal. I’m expecting one of those nose-busting divisional round games that will be decided late, so take the Giants and the points you get with them.

Sunday, January 22

Cincinnati at Buffalo (-5.5)

Mercedes-Benz Stadium is already selling tickets to the potential Chiefs and Bills game. I would be offended as a ⁦@Bengals⁩ or ⁦@Jaguars⁩ fan pic.twitter.com/g5nekB2I0a

— David Connors (@DConBlitz) January 18, 2023

It’s been awhile since the Bengals or Bills tasted defeat. There aren’t many hotter teams in football, but I wouldn’t say either of these teams were at their best during Super Wild Card Weekend. The Bills defense hasn’t been the same since Von Miller got injured, and Skylar Thompson & the Dolphins were able to carve them up and come within a field goal of forcing overtime and perhaps defeating the team that NFL media has been telling me is unbeatable since August. The Bills are good, and it’s been a couple of months since they’ve been beaten, but they’re not unbeatable.

The Bengals had their own problems taking care of the Ravens on Sunday night. Injuries on the offensive line have led to pundits falling back on the lazy talking point that the Bengals do nothing to protect Joe Burrow. They tried! It worked for awhile, but now everybody’s hurt. The offense has looked disjointed in recent weeks, but still productive on the whole. Fortunately, the defense has kicked things up a notch and has had a knack for producing touchdowns of its own. One of the things to watch for in this game: Josh Allen has been turning the ball over on a fairly regular basis. If the Bengals defense can capitalize off of that and get the ball in the end zone, that’d be a big difference maker.

However, we don’t need to put that much thought into this. The experts have told me that the Bills are the best team in the history of football, and that the Bengals don’t have a chance. “Zero chance” is what the experts are telling me. Since I don’t want to be responsible for you good people losing your money, I will listen to the experts & their logic over my insane Bengal fandom. Obviously the Bengals did nothing to get here, have nothing going for them as a football team, and might as well roll over for the Bills and their mafia. Right?

Dallas at San Francisco (-3.5)

Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers is the most expensive divisional game of all time!!! $1,420 is the average ticket price. Standing room, just to get in.. is around $606! pic.twitter.com/VMR3w4nKl2

— SAY CHEESE! 👄🧀 (@SaycheeseDGTL) January 18, 2023

Things couldn’t have gone much better for the Cowboys on Monday night. They finally shook the Brady curse, defeating the GOATed QB for the first time in eight tries. Dak Prescott was at his best, not making untimely turnovers. The defense made the Bucs look like…well, what the Bucs looked like for most of the season. The only problem? Their kicker was one for five on extra point attempts. It didn’t matter much here, as the Bucs could only muster up two touchdowns long after the game had been decided, but there will be a time where the Cowboys will need to be able to convert on extra points & field goals.

It’ll probably be this week. The 49ers got off to a slow start against Seattle, but once they got things in gear it was never really close. I think the Cowboys put up more of a fight than the Seahawks did, but the 49ers should still cover this on the backs of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel & the man, the myth, the legend…..BROCK PURDY!

Super Wild Card Weekend Results: 4-2