It’s January, and for wrestling fans, that means one thing: it’s Royal Rumble season! Kevin Carroll ranks all the entrants we’re aware of at the moment.

Yes, there’s a lot of other stuff to get excited about in wrestling at the moment, and yes the Rumble is still a few weeks away. But I’ve decided to get in the spirit of the event, and power rank EVERY superstar who’s declared for the Rumble’s chances to win, from worst to best. This week, I’ll be breaking down the men’s Rumble, while dedicating next week to the women’s side of things.

At the time of this writing, 20 gentlemen have declared their entry into this year’s Royal Rumble contest. Considering the number of surprise entries and legends that will make up a good chunk of the remaining field, it’s a safe bet to assume that 20 superstars is roughly all we’ll know before the Rumble event itself.

So without further ado, let’s get to it:

20. Jinder Mahal

Remember when Jinder Mahal was WWE Champion for much of the summer of 2017? Me either! No shot for the Modern Day Maharaja to punch his ticket to WrestleMania, I’m afraid.

19. R-Truth

Truth gets the slight edge over Mahal because of his guaranteed #30 entry, which would technically give him the best odds to win if wrestling weren’t fake. Unfortunately for Truth, this is the case, which means that the co-winner of the Mixed Match Challenge will most likely NOT be the last man left in the ring when it’s all said and done.

Could you imagine that pop though? Gives me chills to think about. Sorry, Truth!

18. Apollo Crews

The last of this tier of talent that I like to think of as the “no-shots” is Apollo Crews, who we last saw picking up a victory in mixed tag action on Monday Night RAW. As it wasn’t even him picking up the pinfall, I think it’s safe to assume that Crews will have a relatively short night in Phoenix, which is a shame because he’s a bundle of talent that needs to break out sometime in the year 2019 if he’s to have any chance in WWE at all.

17. Elias

Look, I love Elias as much as the next guy, I’m a card-carrying member of the Walk With Elias fan club, but could you really see him winning the Rumble? I think somewhere down the line we could see Elias elevated to the title picture, but without much momentum to speak of right now, this year won’t be the year.

16-14: Big E, Xavier Woods, Kofi Kingston

As much as I enjoy the New Day as a stable, that designation really hurts their chances to make any sort of waves in the Rumble match, beyond Kofi’s usual death-defying save spot, which seems to get better every year. What’s he going to do to top standing on pancakes last year? What props will he use? That’s about as good as it’s going to get for the New Day in this year’s Rumble.

13. Baron Corbin

If the WWE wishes to set Phoenix on literal fire with a riot that no police force can contain, than sure, you could look at Baron Corbin as a legit threat to win the Royal Rumble. But do we think that Vince McMahon and company really want to send the fans home that mad? I can’t see it happening, especially as the idea of a Corbin-Strowman or Corbin-Lesnar WrestleMania main event isn’t exactly appetizing.

12. John Cena

The only free agent on this list, but that tag doesn’t really matter when, by winning the match, you could essentially put yourself on whichever show you see fit. Anyway, you know Cena’s a contender in kayfabe, as a two-time Rumble winner and 16-time world champ. They’re going to build him up as potentially the favorite to win the thing, but you and I know that’s not the case.

The man just isn’t as committed to WWE as he once was, and even though I fully expect him to win world title No. 17 someday, the Rumble is supposed to make a star. They haven’t always adhered to that logic, but I expect them to this year. Another star that will be made? Whoever dumps Cena over the top rope.

11. Randy Orton

He gets the slight nod over Cena because he’s full-time and still being presented as a threat over on SmackDown, but the same logic behind Cena not winning applies to Randy Orton.

He’s already won the match twice, and there’s prestige and expectation that will come with that, but Orton hasn’t really sniffed the world title scene since dropping the belt to Jinder Mahal two years ago, and no one’s exactly clamoring for him to get back into the picture.

Look for him to start a feud off of whoever eliminates him from the match, probably carrying through WrestleMania. It seems like a good way to get someone over.

10. Bobby Lashley

Vince loves heat, but I don’t think he loves it enough to let Bobby Lashley leave Phoenix as the winner of the Royal Rumble. It would be one hell of a troll job though, you gotta admit. I don’t think they have any plans for Lashley beyond this mini-feud he seems to have going with Seth Rollins, and I think he’ll have a quiet Rumble night.

9. Samoa Joe

I’ll be the first to point out that the Samoan Submission Machine should be way, waaaaaay higher up on this list. But what has he done to really enforce that notion? He’s been on the wrong end of so many feuds and matches, and he has yet to capture his first title in the WWE since coming up from NXT, where he was a force to be reckoned with. He’ll be U.S. Champ soon, and maybe WWE champ this year, but not via the Rumble.

8. Dean Ambrose

Ambrose is going to hold onto that Intercontinental strap for a little while, I have a feeling, which almost disqualifies him from having a chance in the Royal Rumble match. But as an upper-midcard guy, you just never know what they might do with him, and I legitimately think he has more of a chance than the other fellas that have appeared on this list so far.

7. Jeff Hardy

I think at some point, we’re going to see Jeff Hardy get one last run with the WWE Championship. Why not start that now? He’s got momentum, he’s got experience, he’s a very real threat.

6. Rey Mysterio

I know, I know, he should be in the same boat as Cena and Orton. But naaaaaaah, I’m a Mysterio guy for life and I believe he presents a legit threat to the rest of the field. He’s been nothing but brilliant since returning to SmackDown, and who wouldn’t want to see Bryan-Mysterio, or maybe even Mysterio-Lesnar? I know I would.

5. Andrade “Cien” Almas

By virtue of a massive pinfall win over Rey Mysterio in tag team action on this week’s SmackDown, I’ve got to give him the edge to win the Rumble over Mysterio, even though his heel alignment doesn’t really play out well with two heel world champions at the moment. But if AJ Styles were to win the WWE Title from Bryan at the Rumble, a Styles-Almas match would be a nice callback to some of Andrade’s an early SmackDown work, and would be a heck of a match, to boot.

4. Mustafa Ali

It’s not too early to put the rocket on Ali’s back and shoot him to the top of the card. He’s already pinned the WWE champ Daniel Bryan once in tag team action, so clearly he’s going to be in the title picture sooner rather than later. Why not get him started with the biggest win of his career?

3. Finn Balor

Balor vs. Lesnar. The Demon vs. The Beast. BOOK IT.

The word is that Finn Balor is set for a big year, and if that’s the case, than a Rumble win would be the perfect way to start off a massive 2019 for him. And if you don’t want him to face Lesnar, than moving him to SmackDown and having him square off with Daniel Bryan would be just as good, if not better.

2. Seth Rollins

My personal pick to win the Rumble, I think Rollins-Lesnar is the best possible match we could have at WrestleMania (it won’t be closing the show, that honor should and will belong to the women, but more on that next week). Rollins is also someone you could move to SmackDown and feud with Bryan if that was the route WWE chose to go.

1. Drew McIntyre

He’s gotta be the favorite, right? The Scottish Psychopath has been on an absolute tear ever since reemerging on Monday Night Raw. He’s destroyed Kurt Angle, Dolph Ziggler, Finn Balor, and just about everyone in his path. Next up? Brock Lesnar.

Book it.