Opinion
DeMarco: A Look At The Ratings Potential For AEW & NXT
Greg DeMarco takes a dive into the potential ratings glory that could be achieved by AEW & NXT on Wednesday nights. What’s realistic? And will TNT & USA be happy?
Greg DeMarco takes a dive into the potential ratings glory that could be achieved by AEW & NXT on Wednesday nights. What’s realistic? And will TNT & USA be happy?
We are just weeks away from the return of a “war” in the televised wrestling landscape. The Monday Night Wars say WWE Monday Night Raw and WCW Monday Nitro battle it out for the eyeballs of wrestling fans throughout the country (and world). WWE would ultimately win, and now we have all of the WCW content available to stream on the WWE Network for just $9.99.
Now we are embarking on a new war, the Wednesday Night Wars! This time around the role of WCW is being played by All Elite Wrestling, the Khan family owned upstart run by Cody Rhodes, The Young Bucks, Kenny Omega, and Brandi Rhodes. And the opposition isn’t WWE, as Vince McMahon is sending Triple H into battle when NXT defends the honor of Titan Sports against wrestling’s “new girl.”
On Thursday, October 3, 2019, we will have ratings data for both wrestling shows, and for the first time in forever we can argue over the validity of TV ratings when comparing shows that went head-to-head! That’s exciting for the fan in me, even if I now better. The landscape of television is completely different from the Monday Night Wars, thanks to advancements in digital video recording, streaming networks, and a whole slew of people cutting the cord. Comparing the Wednesday Night Wars to the Monday Night Wars is like comparing apples to softballs–it’s silly.
But when has silly stopped a wrestling fan from doing….well, anything! 🙂
But it’s important to remember that while each company wants to beat the other (and they really really really do), the true barometer of success comes from the networks they are answering to. For WWE, it’s the USA Network, the company’s largest historical partner who paid somewhere between $30 million and $90 million for the rights to NXT, making the yellow and black brand a profitable entity for WWE. For AEW, it’s TNT, the former home of WCW Nitro and broadcast partner who paid basically nothing (outside of production costs) for AEW content.
I mean right there it’s obvious to me that we can’t actually compare these, as their TV deals are so different–and expectations will be, too! But like I said, when has silly ever stopped us???
What does history tell us?
NXT made it’s broadcast debut on the USA Network on December 13, 2017 as part of WWE Week. The broadcast aired at 7 PM eastern time (and hour earlier than what NXT will do starting on September 18) and was only an hour long (it will be two hours this time around). According to ShowBuzzDaily, that show drew a .27 demographic rating and 841k total viewers. That was good enough for the show to come in 22nd for the night on all of cable. On that night, the Top 150 was topped by two NBA basketball games.
For a comparison, that week’s Raw drew 2.68 million viewers. This week’s Raw drew an average of 2.53 million viewers. That is a drop off of less than 1%, so it’s reasonable to expect NXT to do a number around the same 841k it did in December 2017. That’s not including the boost NXT is receiving on WWE television, and the increased profile of the show/brand as a whole.
For AEW, we have no historical data to go on, but I think it’s safe to assume it can do close to that number…maybe that 841K is the upper limit. I would set the lower limit at 400k viewers, even though I expect it to beat that mark.
What are USA and TNT drawing on Wednesdays now?
I am glad you asked, because that is a key answer we all need. Beating the other wrestling show is great, but beating the show you replaced on the same network at the same timeslot is more than great–it’s a license to print money!
Let’s take a take a look at the past few weeks of data for USA and TNT:
Wednesday, August 28
- USA Network’s top show: Suits Retrospective at 8:30 PM drew 808k viewers for a .16 demo rating, finishing at #22 for the night
- TNT’s top show: BR Football Match Day at 2:00 PM drew 128k viewers for a .04 demo rating, finishing 141 for the night
Wednesday, August 21
- USA Network’s top show: Suits at 9:00 PM drew 1.050 million viewers for a .20 demo rating, finishing at #25 for the night
- TNT’s top show: I don’t know! TNT failed to crack the Top 150 on this day
Wednesday, August 14
- USA Network’s top show: Suits at 9:00 PM drew 955 million viewers for a .21 demo rating, finishing at #22 for the night
- TNT’s top show: UEFA Super Cup Soccer at 2:42 PM drew 316k viewers for a .14 demo rating, finishing at #42
What does it all mean, Greg?
Here is what I learned: the networks are going to be very happy with NXT and AEW. It’s reasonable to expect the NXT product to push for 1 million eyeballs, and finishing in the Top 20%. Even if NXT draws 841k viewers, it would be a tremendous success for the alternate selection in WWE. If AEW draws 400k, Turner is going to be happy as they’re barely paying for the content, and the show cracked the Top 150 (maybe even the Top 100).
The historical numbers seem to bode well for NXT and AEW. Despite popular belief, more people know NXT, a fact that even Twitter follower counts can confirm. Plus NXT is getting a two week head start, and I expect them to load up the October 2 show to a Takeover quality.
The easiest way to sum it all up? Focus on what’s important, and that’s the boost AEW and NXT are providing for their network. Both networks will see significant ROI (return on investment) even if there is one clear cut winner early.
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Opinion
Chris King: The Wyatt Sicks’ Wasted Potential By WWE
Chris King takes a look at the WWE and their wasted potential of Uncle Howdy and the Wyatt Sicks faction.
Chris King takes a look at the WWE and their wasted potential of Uncle Howdy and the Wyatt Sicks faction.
It’s that time of the year again, folks; it’s unfortunate and downright awful that so many WWE superstars got released today. I’m not going to list all of them, but I am going to talk about one of my favorite factions,
The Wyatt Sicks. Nikki Cross, Joe Gacy, Erik Rowan, and Bo Dallas (Uncle Howdy) were something special. After Bo’s brother Bray Wyatt’s tragic passing, WWE felt like there was a hole that needed to be filled. Wyatt was one of the most creative and brilliant characters, and Bo would be taking over his brother’s concept and bringing it to life. In 2024, at the end of an incredible documentary highlighting Wyatt’s career and struggles, Bo appeared on the screen portrayed as Uncle Howdy. The last time Uncle Howdy was seen on-screen was at the 2023 Royal Rumble, where Wyatt defeated LA Knight in a Pitch Black Match. Howdy jumped off a structure onto Knight.
This post-credit scene sparked so much speculation and excitement that Wyatt’s brother would carry on his legacy and possibly debut the faction that was Wyatt’s concept. On the June 17th episode of Monday Night Raw, The Wyatt Sicks made their dramatic debut ,destroying the backstage area as well as “murdering” Chad Gable. It was such an iconic arrival for Howdy as he made his menacing walk from the back into the audience who were chanting “Holy Shit.” The Sicks and American Made (Chad Gable and The Creed Brothers) battled for months, with The Sicks being victorious. On the September 9th episode of Raw, The Sicks defeated them, with Howdy getting the win with Sister Abigail.
The following year, The Sicks would move over to Friday Night SmackDown, and it seemed like WWE had a plan in place. They would win the tag team championships from The Street Profits and start to look dominant. Now, what should have happened next is Howdy should have won the United States title. The Sicks could have held all the gold over on the blue brand, but it never happened. The Sicks entered into a never-ending feud with The MFT’s (Solo Sikoa, Tama Tonga, Tonga Loa, JC Mateo, and Talla Tonga.) It started off exciting, and the WWE Universe was red-hot for their interactions.
After months of repetitive matches and The MFT’s stealing their lantern, the feud grew tiresome and boring. Even Tama asked Solo why they are still holding onto the lantern, as it was destroying them as a whole. Finally on the SmackDown before Mania, Tama
gave the lantern back to Howdy against Solo’s wishes. Please explain to me why both factions fought almost every single week instead of just having one final blowoff match at WrestleMania.
It should have been either a massive street fight or a falls count anywhere match on the grandest stage of them all. Instead, it turned into a meaningless week-after-week extravaganza that benefited no one. The MFTs won the rivalry, and The Sicks don’t even work for WWE anymore. This was the same criminalized creative process that Wyatt dealt with during his first run in the company.
We’ll never know how much of a dangerous force The Wyatt Sicks could have been in the WWE. For all their careers’ sake, I hope they stay far away from the company for as long as possible. Every superstar that was cut deserves better!
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Opinion
Chris King: Bloodline Saga: Is This the Right Call For WWE?
Chris King questions the WWE’s logic in setting up Jacob Fatu as the next challenger for World Heavyweight Champion Roman Reigns
Chris King questions the WWE’s logic in setting up Jacob Fatu as the next challenger for World Heavyweight Champion Roman Reigns
Roman Reigns is once again World Heavyweight Champion after his dominant win over CM Punk at WrestleMania 42. On the following night on Monday Night Raw, The OG Bloodline came back together as a well-oiled machine as The Usos stood side by side with Roman. With the WWE Universe asking who would be the first to challenge “The Tribal Chief,” Jacob Fatu shocked the world by answering the call.
Fatu is running hot after his impressive win over Drew McIntyre and feels like he is ready to become the new world champion. This bloodline segment ended Raw, and it picked right back up on SmackDown with even Solo Sikoa and the MFTs involved. This is now two shows that have been centered around The Bloodline saga, and it’s made me question whether or not WWE should be retelling this story.
The Bloodline (Roman Reigns, The Usos, and Solo Sikoa) ran WWE for over four years as Reigns’ henchmen, doing his dirty work to retain his title. Even though Roman has declared he doesn’t want Jey and Jimmy to serve him, it sure seems like WWE are spinning their wheels. Fatu could add a whole new chapter into the story, even if he’s not able to beat Roman at Backlash. “The Samoan Werewolf” could be forced to do the same thing as Jey did all those years ago and fall in line.
In my opinion, I feel like Fatu should be challenging for the Undisputed WWE Championship because that’s a title I feel like he should win. I understand standing up to your blood and trying to prove you’re the best, but I don’t think this is the right move. It feels like 2022 all over again, as The Bloodline is the central focus on both shows. If Fatu doesn’t win, what happens to all his momentum he’s been building over the last two years?
Why did WWE make this the best choice for storyline purposes? Why couldn’t creative have come up with a different challenger for Roman? There are so many other superstars that could challenge The Tribal Chief, such as Rusev, Bron Breakker, Gunther, or even a returning Sheamus.
I just can’t help but question WWE’s logic here, and it kind of reminds me of all the times The Shield reunited. Could WWE be pushing the same storyline too many times here? Could the WWE Universe get tired of this rinse and repeat cycle of The Bloodline Saga?
Are we about to see all the weekly episodes solely focused on The Bloodline again? Will it be cinema… Yes. Is there still money in The Bloodline… Yes. Was it the right call? That’s to be determined!
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Attitude Of Aggression Podcast: The Big Five Project (chronologically exploring WWE's PPV/PLE history) Unidentified History (Ufology) & Game Gone Wrong (Game of Thrones Universe)
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