Hi, hello & welcome to Week 18 of the National Football League! It’s the Season Finale, as we close out the regular season and get ready for the playoffs. As usual, the last week of the regular season is full of obstacles for gambling types. Some teams are resting their starters for the playoffs. Other teams have one eye on the game and another on the golf course. Then there’s the usual covid stuff going on. We’re here to guide you through the mess.

It’s been a mixed season for your humble correspondent. It’s been a great one to be a Bengals fan, as the team took the AFC North and will be hosting somebody next week. The Bengals are one of the few teams that can actually say “NOBODY BELIEVED IN US” and actually be telling the truth. Great story, now they need to win a darn playoff game. Fantasy-wise, I won one league out of four. Had better years, but have had a lot worse too.

Can’t say I’ve had a worse year making picks against the spread though. Heading into this week, there’s still a slight chance I can make it to .500 or better for the season. I just need to go 15-1 or better. SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE?

Eh, not much of one, but did we give up after the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? NO! Let’s go out there and make it happen.

Saturday, January 8

Kansas City (-10) at Denver

I just read question asking if Broncos should rest players from Chiefs game. For what? Trip to Maui? Next season? So they’ll be well rested at Costco next week? Because they are tired from getting beaten last two games? How about resting offensive and special teams coordinators?

— Woody Paige (@woodypaige) January 4, 2022

One of these teams can score a lot of points. One of these teams can’t. A Chiefs win puts them within reach of the one seed if disaster befalls the Titans, and they’ll take care of it with ease.

Dallas (-7) at Philadelphia

John Madden in 1995 after the Cowboys were stopped on 4th and short twice by the #Eagles: “They deserve to lose.” pic.twitter.com/gJmZXjbDia

— SPORTSRADIO 94WIP (@SportsRadioWIP) December 29, 2021

The Eagles have a ton of people on the covid list at the moment, and realistically don’t have a lot to play for here anyway. They’re currently seventh and can move up to sixth if certain things break their way. As far as both conferences go, I am of the opinion that the difference between the second & third seed won’t be that much. The Cowboys could move up to the 2 seed, which would be interesting if the Eagles stayed at 7. I see the Cowboys winning here by about eight or nine points.

Sunday, January 9

Green Bay (-4) at Detroit

#Packers Matt LaFleur confirms that everyone who is healthy will be starting Sunday against the #Lions.

— Lily Zhao (@LilySZhao) January 5, 2022

The Packers have clinched the 1 seed, but Aaron Rodgers has made it clear that he wants to play on Sunday. Since there’s not an ounce of drama in this game other than where the Lions end up in draft order, I’m going to take a minute to weigh in on this whole Aaron Rodgers MVP debate. Hub Arkush, Chicago based football writer, has an MVP vote and he said on a radio appearance that he’s not going to give it to Aaron Rodgers because he’s “the biggest jerk in the league”. This led to a ton of outrage from other media types, Rodgers calling Arkush a bum, and Arkush penning a lame apology taking back everything he’d ever said.

Here’s the thing, which was something I was thinking about myself before this particular debacle took place. Everybody’s telling me that Rodgers or Jonathan Taylor have to be the only candidates for MVP, with Rodgers the clear favorite. After the last couple of weeks I see some people throwing Joe Burrow’s name out there, which is pretty cool. The question I have to people who are telling me that Aaron Rodgers is the MVP, the greatest quarterback of all time and the best thing since sliced bread:

Who leads the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns?

Why, that would be forty-four year old Tom Brady. There was a time when somebody that old still playing in games would be a “nice story”, not leading the league in various statistics. Isn’t he the obvious choice for MVP considering his team has a division title and nothing to worry about this weekend in spite of all the distractions surrounding them? Sure seems like it to me. I don’t care what Rodgers did or didn’t do off the field, none of it makes him a better quarterback than Tom Brady in my eyes.

Chicago at Minnesota (-3.5)

The Bears started Nick Foles in Week 16 and won.

They started Andy Dalton last week and won.

And they're starting Justin Fields this week and face the Vikings.

No team has won 3 straight games with 3 different starting QBs since the 2015 Texans. pic.twitter.com/BUyJmWOrpu

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 6, 2022

This could be the last game for Matt Nagy & Mike Zimmer as head coaches of their respective teams, both of which had high expectations that weren’t met this season. I’m a Zimmer fan from his days in Cincinnati, but he’s had eight seasons in Minnesota and things aren’t trending in the right direction. I get it if the Vikings want to move on. Nagy’s had four seasons in Chicago and it’s been all downhill from his first season. As hyperactive as the Bears fan base can be, I can’t fault them too much for wanting a change.

That being said, I think it’d be hilarious if the Bears won here and Nagy ended up keeping his job. Come on, you gotta give a coach who wins three straight games with three different quarterbacks some credit, right?

Indianapolis (-15.5) at Jacksonville

For everyone assuming the Colts beat the Jaguars…

Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014.

— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) January 3, 2022

The Colts have struggled against some bad Jaguars teams, but they’ve never played a Jaguars team this bad. I realize that the whole “haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014” thing is a little daunting, but the streak has to end at some point. It would have last year if the Colts immediately knew what they had with Jonathan Taylor. I think they win…but somehow, the Jaguars keep it within two touchdowns. Do you believe in miracles?

Tennessee (-10) at Houston

#Texans defense hearing the Derrick Henry news during lunch. #Titans pic.twitter.com/SoEo8N7cjE

— JAME$ (@SouthTexasTitan) January 5, 2022

The Texans have been looking better lately, but the Titans have too much to play for here. A victory gives them the 1 seed and a week off before joining the playoff fun. You don’t wanna mess that up, especially since it’ll give Derrick Henry an extra week to work back into his groove.

Washington (-7) at NY Giants

Since Joe Judge’s job was declared safe he’s lost every game by at least two TDs, implied Belichick was on the hot seat during a Super Bowl winning season, told a Marine Todd story about players wishing they played for the Giants and made up an alternate 2019 season. All-time run

— Kevin Clark (@bykevinclark) January 3, 2022

Joe Judge has become quite a divisive figure during his two seasons as head coach of the Giants. Fans & observers see him as a man in over his head. Players support him and seem to think things are headed in the right direction, regardless of what the scoreboard might show. In fairness, most Bengals fans weren’t too sure about Zac Taylor after his first two seasons, and now he’s one of the betting favorites for Coach of the Year. Thing is, Taylor got Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and some key acquisitions to aid his effort. Judge has Daniel Jones, who we’ve at least established isn’t Joe Burrow. The jury’s still out, but Judge will probably need more than 4-6 wins to keep going beyond 2022.

I don’t see him getting a win this week. The Giants have looked pretty awful lately, and the Football Team has at least looked competent enough to beat teams that aren’t the Cowboys or Eagles.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-5.5)

Veteran CB Jimmy Smith is smiling as he remembers that the #Ravens–#Steelers rivalry was the first thing he heard about when he got to BAL. Calls it "the red dot game," and says, "You're not even a Raven until you made a play against the Steelers."
(Note: I 💜💛 this rivalry.)

— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) January 5, 2022

There is still a way for both of these teams to make the playoffs. The Steelers need to beat Baltimore, the Colts to lose to the Jags, and a Chargers/Raiders game that isn’t a tie. Not the most likely path in the road, but not impossible. The Ravens need to beat Pittsburgh, the Raiders to beat the Chargers, the Jags to beat the Colts and the Patriots to either defeat or tie Miami. Again, not impossible. So you see why they’re trying to get Lamar Jackson out there this week, as he greatly increases their chances of winning.

Could go either way, I’ll take the Steelers because it’s going to be a close one. It usually is with these two teams.

Cincinnati at Cleveland (-6)

So Bengals vs. Browns on Sunday will now be Brandon Allen vs. Case Keenum. https://t.co/odiQO1JFr8

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 5, 2022

I haven’t seen a line on a game swing like this one has. After it was announced that Baker Mayfield would be sitting out, the Bengals were 3.5 point favorites. After Joe Mixon & some other Bengals went on the covid list, and it was announced Joe Burrow wouldn’t be playing so he could rest his knee, Vegas jumped all over the Browns. One thing we do know for sure: a lot of second-stringers are going to take this game as an opportunity. They can make some big plays & get some good film out there for coaches & scouts to notice during the off-season. Matt Flynn got a heck of a lot of guaranteed money from the Seattle Seahawks out of a game similar to this one.

The Bengals are AFC North Champions. They aren’t going to beat the Browns this season. Funny how things work, isn’t it?

New England (-6.5) at Miami

The Patriots would be in playoffs if Tua was their QB. The Dolphins would be out of the playoffs if Mac was their QB. Nothing would change.

— Joseph L Rendon (@josephLrendon) January 4, 2022

I tried to give the Dolphins a little credit last week and they laid an egg against the Titans. Never again, at least not this season. Take the Patriots to handle their business while hoping the Jets can do something.

NY Jets at Buffalo (-16)

Josh Allen on facing the #Jets as they'll try to play spoiler against the #Bills this week: "We know that they're gonna be pumped up and ready to come play and try to take the division away from us at home. If I was in that position I'd feel the same way." pic.twitter.com/ljHq9JFRs0

— Heather Prusak (@haprusak) January 6, 2022

The Jets have looked better the last few weeks, but this is a bad matchup for them. The Bills will be looking to clinch the AFC East in impressive fashion, and that’s exactly what they’ll do.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-8)

The Carolina Panthers are one loss away from finishing with the worst record in NFL history for a team that started 3-0. The 2001 Chargers and 2012 Cardinals went from 3-0 to 5-11. Panthers would be 5-12 if the Buccaneers beat them Sunday. (h/t @pfref)

— Scott Fontana (@Scott_Fontana) January 3, 2022

Some drama & distractions going on in Tampa, but they won’t make enough of a difference to give Carolina any kind of a chance. The Panthers are just too much of a mess. The Buccaneers will roll into the playoffs & get ready for next week.

I’ve been told I need to mention Antonio Brown here because everybody else is. I’d like to wait & see what develops before making too many rash judgments in public. Not the most popular of stances, I know, but I gotta ride the fence here. Too much that I don’t know.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Atlanta

So, Saints and Falcons at 3:25 slot playing while the 49ers at Rams is going on.

Saints win, 49ers lose. That simple to get in. pic.twitter.com/7SHEGnh7f9

— John Hendrix (@JohnJHendrix) January 3, 2022

Saints/Falcons is a pretty big rivalry, and there’s a lot on the line for New Orleans here. They need to beat the Falcons, and they need the Rams to beat the 49ers. There’s a lot on the line for Atlanta as well, as they’d love to spoil the Saints’ plans of playoff glory. I see this being a close game, so take the Falcons.

Seattle at Arizona (-6.5)

He gave Ciara a kiss after saying “I love you, baby” but only gave Pete a side hug after saying the same words.

Clearly Russell is faking the funk with his HC and has no intentions on ever dating the man. https://t.co/JucgmHkXZC

— Chickens and Mentals Caretaker (@_danchu) January 4, 2022

A win here and a Rams loss would give the Cardinals the NFC West title and a home game next week. Seems like plenty of motivation to me. The Seahawks will be motivated to go home and figuring out what they’re doing next season.

San Francisco at LA Rams (-4.5)

The 49ers don't usually post practice videos during the regular season. Gamesmanship in full force this week. Putting the Rams' minds in overdrive.

(Garoppolo looked fine throwing the ball today, by the way) https://t.co/Tx7IZKs0gE

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 6, 2022

The Rams have lost five straight to the 49ers, which is good news for San Francisco considering that they need to win here to get a playoff berth. Another game that I can see going either way, and both teams have a ton on the line. Go with the 49ers and them points.

LA Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas

Here's something totally bonkers: If the Colts lose to the Jaguars Sunday, the Raiders and Chargers would both get in with a tie. Literally, there would be no motivation for either team to do anything other than kneel it out 15 times each.

— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) January 3, 2022

As funny as it would be for the Chargers & Raiders to play to a tie on purpose, I can guarantee you that it won’t happen. There isn’t enough trust between these two long-time division rivals to make it happen. Probably some hard feelings from Raiders management over the whole Los Angeles move they were going to make together that fell through. Likely some jealousy from Chargers management over being the number three team in So Cal all those years. Nah, if this thing ends up a tie it definitely won’t be on purpose.

I’d like to see the Raiders win it because it’d be a better story. We wrote them off after the Jon Gruden debacle & all the other things that have happened, but they just kept playing through it, getting big wins at important times. They need one more. They could also get in with that Colts loss we keep talking about & a Steelers loss to the Ravens. Not likely, but not impossible. The Chargers are probably the better team, but have a knack for coming up short at moments like this. Vegas has come up big in similar moments. Take the Raiders and the points.

Week 17 Results: 9-7

Overall Results: 119-133-4