From 2014-16, I made a hobby out of picking NFL games against the spread. My buddy Dustin James asked me if I wanted to contribute to his football blog, and that’s what I came up with. Good times were had by all, and Dustin’s football blog grew into an Ultimate Sports Blog featuring the writing of Dustin, Jeremy Lambert & myself, with Todd Bergman chiming in from time to time.

Once the 2017 season rolled around, the cast of characters moved on to different things. Jeremy became a wrestling writing megastar, pumping out headlines & podcasts that are second to none. Dustin became one of the memorabilia collecting world’s biggest names. Todd became one of the biggest pimps in the state of Indiana.

As for me? Well, I’m back in the saddle again. Sports gambling just gets bigger & bigger, and more of you need help picking games. Fortunately for you, I’m back to break it down in what most consider to be a somewhat amusing fashion. So sit back, relax, and let me tell you what’s going down in Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season. Lines are provided by the good people at Vegas Insider. (I use the consensus column on the far right, and it’s certainly subject to change.)

Thursday, September 9

Dallas at Tampa Bay (-8.5)

Brady was asked what advice he’d give to younger players and he quipped, “I wrote a book on it. It’s good.” Touché. #gobucs #nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/xEI85WrEdR

— Sara Walsh (@Sara_Walsh) September 7, 2021

You really have to hand it to the NFL bookers for this one. What better way to open up a season by sending the most endlessly hyped team every single year whether they deserve it or not out to Tampa to take on the defending champions? America’s Team vs. The GOAT. Whether it’s a good game or not, it’s going to draw a ton of attention.

People on sports networks are trying to tell me that the Dallas Cowboys are Super Bowl contenders. It’s almost as cute as the Cowboys’ Cheerleaders, but let’s get real here. There’s an old phrase people use a lot in Dallas that sums up the Cowboys ever since Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith & Michael Irvin retired. They get a lot of talk every year. A talented quarterback, top notch running back, solid receivers & offensive line, and there’s a defense too. But at the end of the day, the Dallas Cowboys are all hat, no cattle. That’s all they’ve been, and all they will be.

Some would like to think it’ll be different this year if talented quarterback Dak Prescott can play more than five games. Some will tell me that Dallas’s tremendous roster of talent that totally isn’t hyped up just because they play for America’s Team will finally get it together in 2021. As Marvin Lewis used to say while coaching my Bengals to Wild Card Weekend losses: I see better than I hear. Until the Cowboys start doing what they were doing back in the early 1990s when all the cool kids were rocking those blue star Starter jackets, I’m going to assume they’re not on the level of actual Super Bowl contenders.

Certainly not on the level of actual Super Bowl Champions, which the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were last season. Almost everybody came back. Why would they leave? They got Tom Brady, and all he does is win rings. As I told you prior to last year’s championship game, Don’t Bet Against Greatness. It would be hypocritical of me to tell you that, then not pick the Buccaneers seven months later.

Sunday, September 12

Pittsburgh at Buffalo (-6.5)

Working on a piece on what the Steelers must do to beat the Bills, and I gotta say, this could get the job done. pic.twitter.com/2r86i0IWh5

— Jarrett Bailey (@JBaileyNFL) September 1, 2021

I’ve been waiting to count the Pittsburgh Steelers out longer than I can remember. Some are beginning to, as everybody thinks the Browns & Ravens are going to decide the AFC North amongst themselves this season. It’s another one of those things, like the Cowboys as Super Bowl contenders, that I’m going to need to see to believe. Until Ben Roethlisberger’s arm falls off, the AFC North will run through Pittsburgh. I don’t like it, but as my good friend Matthew Hardy says: the truth is the truth.

The Bills are the better team here, don’t get me wrong. Speaking of the truth, Josh Allen certainly qualifies as the truth. Their defense against the Steelers’ leaky offensive line is a recipe for disaster for Big Ben, who better have his running shoes on. I think the Bills defend their home turf, but the Steelers will keep it close.

NY Jets at Carolina (-5)

#Panthers QB Sam Darnold had a chance to throw the #Jets organization under the bus when the media asked him about the lack of weapons, protection in NY, but he took blame instead. Always has been a stand up guy: #NYJvsCAR #TakeFlight #KeepPounding pic.twitter.com/ZpRC9PXVBo

— Paul Andrew Esden Jr (@BoyGreen25) September 8, 2021

It’s the Sam Darnold Bowl! We’ve been forced to hear a lot about Darnold since he played QB for a New York team the last three seasons. He hasn’t lived up to the hype yet, largely because he played for the Jets. Will things go better now that he’s in Carolina? Tough to say. What I can say is that Darnold’s first game with the Panthers will be against his old team, and he’s telling everybody who will listen that fact doesn’t matter. Nobody that listens believes him, but he’s going to keep saying it, by gum.

Meanwhile, Darnold is in Carolina because the Jets decided that Zach Wilson was the future of their franchise. Given the Jets’ track record on such matters, I don’t know why experts are telling me that this kid is going to be the next Tom Brady. I emphasize the word “kid” because Greg DeMarco tells me he saw Zach Wilson playing soccer against his son the other week. Greg says that the Jets better hope Wilson’s arm is better than his foot. Given that scouting report, and the fact that the Jets are the Jets, I recommend you take the Panthers here.

Jacksonville (-3) at Houston

jacksonville jaguars @ houston texans 1:00 pm september 12th https://t.co/TnprTyXrwW

— Noal Gesler (@noalgesler) September 2, 2021

When you’re a three point dog to the freaking Jags on your homefield, something’s gone terribly wrong. You could definitely say that for the Texans, who have Tyrod Taylor running out there at QB instead of Deshaun Watson, who was the only reason they actually managed to win four games last season. Taylor’s not terrible, but watching him manage a game is just slightly more exciting than the paid programs airing on your local ABC affiliate during football Sundays. This season will be all about finding out who the Texans’ next QB will be, which means Houston fans will be more interested in Saturday football than Sunday football.

With all of that being said…dude, it’s the Jaguars. On the road. With a rookie quarterback and a new head coach. As much as I might hope to get on Tony Khan’s payroll one of these days (has the guy read my stuff? It’s good!), I can’t tell you in good conscience to lay money on his squad here. Take the Texans at home in a low-scoring affair.

Arizona at Tennessee (-3)

Titans are projected to have the worst defense in the NFL this year by @fboutsiders.

Opportunity awaits for Kyler Murray and Co. to start off hot.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 7, 2021

I seem to have a lot of faith in Kyler Murray this season, as he’s quarterbacking two out of my four fantasy teams. On the bright side for him, I won all three of my fantasy leagues last season, so if that good mojo keeps going he should have a big year. He’s going to need one, as the NFC West seems more stacked than the staff at your local Hooters. The Cardinals are going to need to win some non-divisional games to keep up with the rest of their division mates.

As for the Titans, there’s a lot to like, and some to wonder about. Offense looks good with Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Julio Jones & that Derrick Henry fella. Defense seems a bit sketchy, which opens things up for the Cardinals to make things close and maybe even win the game late.

LA Chargers (-1) at Washington

Go on a journey through the career of Ryan Fitzpatrick, as told by his teammates. He's a leader, his personality is infectious, he's a mentor. It's Fitzmagic.https://t.co/7F5IO1EgM7

— Zach Selby (@ZachSelbyWFT) September 7, 2021

The Chargers have a knack for getting off to a poor start. They also have a knack for struggling on the East Coast. As much as people like Justin Herbert and now think he’s the best young QB in the NFL, I don’t like these circumstance for him & the Chargers. I just hope the kid makes it out alive, as I remember what happened when the Bengals’ 2020 1st round draft pick traveled to Washington last year. Fortunately, Herbert at least has somebody blocking for him.

Washington has a Football Team, and they might be worth keeping an eye on. Wouldn’t it be fun for Ryan Fitzpatrick to QB a relevant team late in the season?

Philadelphia at Atlanta (-3)

Here’s your annual reminder that at least one @NFL team has gone “worst to first” in 16 of the last 18 seasons.

2021 candidates:
Eagles
Lions
Falcons
49ers

Jets
Bengals
Jaguars
Broncos@NFLResearch

— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) September 8, 2021

New coaches & a new look for both the Eagles & Falcons here. I’m not really sure what to make of either team going forward, so this is one of those early games where you look at the stars & judge based off of that. Do I want Jalen Hurts on the road, or Matt Ryan at home? I want Matt Ryan at home, so give me the Falcons.

Seattle (-3) at Indianapolis

I will not tolerate any Russell Wilson slander on my timeline. This man is a king. pic.twitter.com/O78b5SLPcc

— Sean Lynch (@seanlynchpoet) September 6, 2021

It’s tempting to give the Colts a look here since it’s a West Coast team heading to the Midwest & playing at 10 AM. But then you realize the Colts are in the midst of figuring things out with Carson Wentz & the Seahawks have Russell Wilson cooking. The Seahawks just have more weapons and should be able to take care of some road business here.

Minnesota (-3) at Cincinnati

Joe Burrow getting that David Carr protection plan. https://t.co/8epqyaB4yP

— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) September 7, 2021

To be perfectly honest, I don’t have high hopes for the Bengals this season. As one that’s watched this team for just over thirty seasons, it’s tough to muster up much in the way of optimism. The QB is coming off of knee surgery. The top draft pick can’t catch a cold, much less a pass. Defense looked ok in the preseason, so the main hope (unless you’re still sold on the idea that Zac Taylor is an offensive genius and all of these weapons will magically come together) is to win a bunch of low-scoring games.

Seems highly unlikely to me. Maybe I’m wrong and Joe Burrow & Ja’Marr Chase start re-creating those LSU vibes. Maybe Joe Mixon runs people over and shows people why he got paid. Maybe Taylor can win more games in one season than he has in his first two. It doesn’t seem likely though, and I see Dalvin Cook making this defense look pretty poor. I also see Kirk Cousins tossing it to Justin Jefferson all game. I see some good times in the nasty Nati for the Vikings.

San Francisco (-7.5) at Detroit

Jimmy Garoppolo reminisces about his creation of National Tight End Day three years ago when the #49ers played the Lions.

“Yeah… [George] kinda stole it from me, but it’s all good…”

🎥 @49ers // #FTTB pic.twitter.com/wuyHTT90CT

— Lydia (@limajuliettango) September 9, 2021

I’m unsure as to why we give the 49ers the benefit of the doubt and assume they’re going to contend this year. In Kyle Shanahan’s four seasons with the club, they’ve had one really good one, where they went to the Super Bowl. That was obviously good, but the rest has been very lackluster. Two losing seasons before that, and they followed up their Super Bowl run with a 6-10 showing. I can only assume we’re really excited about Trey Lance, which has very little to do with this game since he isn’t starting.

The good news for Jimmy Garoppolo is that he’s playing against a Lions team that should make him look pretty good this week. Poor Jared Goff escaped the NFC West and he’s still stuck playing against these guys. The 49ers should be able to leave the Motor City like a bunch of madmen.

Cleveland at Kansas City (-6)

The Browns and Chiefs last played each other in Week 1 back in 2002. This is how it ended. pic.twitter.com/Ft9vkpCW92

— Stuckey (@Stuckey2) September 8, 2021

Pretty fun game to give the Tony Romo treatment to. Tony should be all sorts of excited with Patrick Mahomes doing his thing with all of his weapons, and the Browns running backs running over everybody in sight. I’m expecting a high-scoring game here that will set NFL Twitter ablaze. Maybe some back & forth action, a couple lead changes, things like that.

People have high expectations for the Browns this year. They do many years, but this year seems different. The Chiefs will be a good test for these expectations, because one does not enter Arrowhead Stadium and defeat the Chiefs easily. The Browns won’t defeat the Chiefs. Heck, I even think the Chiefs will cover the spread. But it’s not the end of the world for long-suffering Cleveland fans. Losing to Houston next week would be.

Miami at New England (-3)

Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle vs Mac Jones and Damien Harris on Sunday.

Who wins?#RollTide pic.twitter.com/ABvUqZJzrj

— Sidelines – Bama (2020 National Champions!) (@SSN_Alabama) September 8, 2021

While most CBS stations will be airing Browns vs. Chiefs, the Dolphins & Patriots will be playing on stations located in Florida & the New England area. Oh, and Alabama. Tua & Mac go at it in Mac’s big debut, and everybody is telling me that Mac Jones is the next GOAT. See, since Bill Belichick drafted him, it has to be so. I don’t make the rules. Jones was impressive enough to make Cam Newton leave town, and consdering how bad Newton was with this offense was last season, he can only improve things. The Dolphins won 10 games last year, which is pretty easy to forget but it happened. If Tua ends up being the real deal, they could take the next step.

So who wins the Battle of Alabama? I gotta go with the Patriots here, but keep an eye on both these teams. The AFC East might not be the cakewalk for Buffalo that people think it might be.

Denver (-3) at NY Giants

It is so easy to root for Teddy Bridgewater. pic.twitter.com/Cv33gGkObI

— ᴄᴀᴍᴇʀᴏɴ ᴘᴀʀᴋᴇʀ (@CameronParkerPO) September 4, 2021

Don’t tell anybody I said this. As much as I like Teddy Bridgewater and think he’s a jamup guy, the fact he beat out Drew Lock in a QB competition isn’t a good sign for the Broncos’ near future. They’ll be looking for something else next season. Until then, Denver’s skill players will continue to develop and Teddy won’t make too many mistakes. Denver doesn’t have much of a chance in their division. The Giants might, but a lot of that has to do with the other teams in their division.

Daniel Jones is going to have a tough time against the Broncos’ pass rush. That’ll keep the Giants’ scoring limited, and keep New York City/New Jersey out of the win column for Week 1.

Green Bay (-4) vs. New Orleans (in Jacksonville)

You love to see it…

📸 – Aaron Rodgers' IG pic.twitter.com/XKYuAmZJJv

— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) September 1, 2021

The Saints were favored in this game before it was moved to Jacksonville due to the hurricanes. It’s a tough thing to not really have a homebase. Didn’t work out well for the Saints when Katrina hit, and I don’t expect it to work this season, when they were already up against the 8 ball trying to figure out what to do with the QB position. Is Jameis Winston the answer?

I do know that Aaron Rodgers is the answer, regardless of how much time he spent working during the off-season. After the Packers win this game, Rodgers & Joe Buck can talk about why neither of them were named permanent Jeopardy host.

Chicago at LA Rams (-7.5)

Bears with Andy Dalton ready for week 1 pic.twitter.com/KouVfUbWOm

— Dan Shuftan (@DanShuftan) September 5, 2021

One of my NFL pet peeves for years has been the number of times the Chicago Bears make national television. It’s one thing if you’re a really good team, or if you’re at least somewhat entertaining. The Bears are neither of these things, but we have to suffer through several of their games every season because most of sports media has spent at least part of their lives in the Windy City. Most at Northwestern.

People have high hopes for the Rams this season, largely because Matthew Stafford finally has an actual football team behind him. Now we get to see how good he really is, and I expect him to show out this week as the Rams win big on SUNDAY NIGHT IS FOOTBALL NIGHT. Sorry Chi-Town, as somebody that lived through the Andy Dalton prime time experience I know what you’re in for here. Nothing good.

Baltimore (-4.5) at Las Vegas

https://t.co/SGWDIS5iII pic.twitter.com/YIjyKIxkRR

— Leigh (@LeighMayock) September 6, 2021

I’d be more concerned about the Ravens’ running back situation if their best runner wasn’t their quarterback. As long as Lamar Jackson can stay on the field and stop getting the coronavirus, the Ravens should be good to go. The Raiders’ defense isn’t going to stop them, and Derek Carr isn’t going to get much done against the Ravens’ defense.

In a continuing trend, I keep picking against front office related people that I’d like to have on my good side. Sorry, Leigh. I gotta go with the Ravens.

It’s good to be back! Thanks for reading, and good luck with everything you’ve got going on in Week 1. Follow me on the Twittah for good times and any last minute developments.