Hi, hello & welcome to Week 4 of the National Football League! I’m Steve Cook, and let’s not talk too much about what happened last week. We got off to a good start, but things took a dangerous turn. These things happen. We turn the page, and as it turns out, we’ve got a pretty interesting week of football on our hands.

Listed odds are provided by Vegas Insider.

Thursday, September 30

Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-7.5)

Well at least next Thursday will be better.

Checks schedule:

Jaguars vs Bengals pic.twitter.com/QlgRglgHEA

— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) September 24, 2021

Here’s the thing. The Jaguars are obviously not very good. They look like one of those teams where you wonder how they’re going to win a game. Therefore, a short week going on the road looks like a disaster waiting to happen. Then you have the Bengals, who are coming off a win over the hated Steelers. Fans are hyped because it’s a prime time game, and also because the team is finally doing something to honor previous players & contributors. A Ring of Honor is long overdue in the eyes of the fanbase, but now it’s finally happening & everybody’s fairly excited about it.

So if you know the Bengals as well as I do, you know they’re either going to lose this game or it’s going to be much closer than expected. It’s the natural state of things. I won’t often recommend taking the Jaguars, but this seems like a week to do it. Especially since the Bengals defense will be missing Jesse Bates & the Bengals offense will be missing Tee Higgins.

Sunday, October 3

Washington (-1) at Atlanta

Most points allowed through 3 games:

T-1st: Lions, Chiefs – 95
2nd: Falcons – 94
3rd: Washington Football Team – 92

— WASHINGTON FOOTBALL (@HogsHaven) September 27, 2021

I would tell you to expect a high scoring game, but I have zero faith in either of these offenses. I’m leaning towards the Falcons just because they’re at home. I have no real grasp of either of these teams yet except they’re both probably not playoff teams barring a terrible division.

Detroit at Chicago (-3)

Dan Orlovsky said yesterday's gameplan from Matt Nagy was the "worst I've ever seen in my life."

Your friendly reminder that Dan Orlovsky played on the 0-16 Lions in 2008.

If he says it's bad, it's really bad.

— Brendan Sugrue (@BrendanSugrue) September 27, 2021

Matt Nagy has been considered an offensive genius ever since his days assisting Andy Reid with the Kansas City Chiefs. He managed to flush that reputation down the toilet last week with his team’s pathetic showing against the Cleveland Browns, where he tried to re-cast Justin Fields as Andy Dalton. It was the opposite of playing to Fields’ strengths, and the Browns took advantage.

So now we’re supposed to believe that the Bears will pick a proper QB to take care of things against the Lions, who have a tendency of making things close, even if they lose. Nah. Give me the Lions and those points.

Tennessee (-7) at NY Jets

Could the #Titans be without their top two WRs this Sunday?

WR Julio Jones is getting treatment on a leg injury, and his status vs the #Jets is up in the air, sources tell me and @TomPelissero. AJ Brown also may miss a week or two with a hamstring injury.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 29, 2021

Some of you would see the tweet above and say “Seems like a good day to bet on the Jets.” Me, I see it and feel pretty happy since I have Derrick Henry on three of my fantasy teams. He’ll get fed the ball and the Titans will run all over the Jets.

Cleveland (-2) at Minnesota

The #Browns have no excuse not to score points as the Vikings defense ranks:
-27th in YPC to opposing RBs (4.8 YPC)
-32nd in completion % allowed (75.8%)
-31st in yards per attempt (10.1)
-27th in pass yards allowed (871)
-31st in opponent QBR (119.7)

— MoreForYouCleveland (@MoreForYou_CLE) September 27, 2021

This thing is gonna be a shootout. Both these teams score a ton of points and give up a ton of points. It’ll be one of those last minute games with Kevin Harlan screaming his head off. I’ll take the home team and hope the Vikings put up a Viking kind of fight.

Indianapolis at Miami (-2)

Here’s an interesting one: the Colts are working out OT Isaiah Wilson, a first round pick of the Titans in 2020 who was traded to and then released by Miami. His first workout since being let go by the Dolphins.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 24, 2021

I don’t think either of these teams are going anywhere anytime soon. The Dolphins looked pretty feisty last week against the Raiders, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt here.

Carolina at Dallas (-4.5)

Matt Rhule reading off all the bulletin board material the #Panthers are getting from the Cowboys-loving national NFL media this week. pic.twitter.com/bqHrgZmyoZ

— Cat Crave (@CatCraveBlog) September 29, 2021

The sentiment towards the Carolina Panthers & their 3-0 start seems pretty unanimous: Let us know when you beat somebody that matters. It’s not Carolina’s fault, this isn’t college football where schools get to make their own early-season schedules & choose their non-conference opponents. The NFL gave them two cupcakes & a Saints team I don’t know what to make of yet to start the season. Getting 3-0 out of that is fairly easy if you’re a competent football team. We’re waiting for the Panthers to beat somebody that impresses us.

Nobody impresses America more than America’s Team. Dem Cowboys took the Eagles out to the woodshed on Monday night, beating them so bad that the only drama was who Peyton & Eli’s next guest would be. It was an impressive showing, so now everybody is telling us how the Cowboys are going to the Super Bowl. Hey, I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if they made a run at it. Some good firepower on that offense, and the defense has been pretty legit so far.

Thing is, we’re going to find out how much an extra couple days of rest matters. Carolina whooped Houston on Thursday night. Dallas whooped Philadelphia on Monday night. Does that time matter? I think it does, which is why I’m rolling with the Panthers to at least get within 4.5 points if not win the darn thing.

NY Giants at New Orleans (-7.5)

The Sants’ homecoming from Hurricane Katrina was one of the most emotional moments in NFL history. Their owning of the Falcons on that night in the SuperDome was a comeback for the franchise and their city that bound them together. I’m not sure that moment can ever be re-created, even if the Saints are coming back home after another hurricane.

I do think the Saints can whoop some Giants ass, so that’s the smart pick here.

Kansas City (-7) at Philadelphia

Eagles week for the #Chiefs pic.twitter.com/ipHwW9wBLX

— Harold R. Kuntz (@HaroldRKuntz3) September 29, 2021

You can feel the desperation in Kansas City. They apparently don’t have enough offensive weapons, so they bring in Josh Gordon. How long will that last? Until whenever they test him for drugs is my guess. I wasn’t really worried about the Chiefs until I saw that move, now I see it’s a matter of time until that house of cards falls apart.

Can the Eagles take advantage? Ehhhhh, probably not. Patrick Mahomes can still get enough out of the Chiefs to beat a mid-level NFC East team pretty good.

Houston at Buffalo (-16.5)

Sean McDermott not interested in talking about point spread as Bills are heavily favored vs. Texans. He said if you don’t take an opponent seriously, “you get your ass kicked.”

— Matt Parrino (@MattParrino) September 29, 2021

That’s a lot of points. But, it’s Davis Mills leading a pretty sorry Houston team into Buffalo. Given what we’ve seen from the Bills the last couple of weeks, I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Arizona at LA Rams (-4.5)

The Cardinals are 0-8 against the Rams in the last four seasons, including 0-4 under Kliff Kingsbury but Kyler Murray thinks this is the best Cards team he’s been on to take on the Rams: “It's not even a question. Night and day."

— Josh Weinfuss (@joshweinfuss) September 29, 2021

Spoiler Alert: This is the actual game of the week. Forget what sports media is telling you right now, this is the game that will be driving folks banana on Sunday. I can see the Rams winning, but I see that margin and I’m thinking Cardinals. Gonna be a close one.

Seattle at San Francisco (-3)

Reminder: The Seahawks play the 49ers (on the road) and the Rams (on Thursday night) in the next 11 days.

— Adam Jude (@A_Jude) September 26, 2021

Boy, that sounds like fun! At least my Bengals got an injured Steelers team & a sorry, no account Jaguars franchise in that kind of time frame. The Seahawks are getting two actual competent teams! That’s gotta suck. I know they got a Hall of Famer QB, but I’m just not feeling any of this. Take the 49ers on Sunday & the Rams on Thursday.

Baltimore at Denver (-1)

From South Florida to @UofLFootball to the 32nd pick in the @NFL Draft.

Now @teddyb_h2o & @Lj_era8 are set to face off for the first time » https://t.co/y4nJQpeCs4 pic.twitter.com/v9jN9haOB2

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 30, 2021

This is not a choice I ever wanted to make. I knew that at some point, Lamar Jackson & Teddy Bridgewater would probably end up quarterbacking NFL teams against each other. As a Louisville guy, I saw it coming, even though alleged football experts didn’t see Lamar or Teddy as legitimate NFL quarterbacks. You know, because they went to Louisville, and because they didn’t fit a certain mold of what a star QB looked like. Welp, it happened. Folks can say a lot of bad things about my alma mater based off the men’s basketball program and some of the football coaches, but I challenge anybody to find a college with finer football representatives than Lamar Jackson & Teddy Bridgewater. You won’t. As good as they are on the football field, they’re better off of it.

I have to pick the one that needs it more, which is Teddy & the Broncos. Their holding serve against the Ravens at home could make the experts actually take the team seriously. As much as I love Lamar and what he did for the U of L program, Teddy helped pave the way. If he keeps doing what he’s doing, which is not making mistakes while being extremely accurate, the Broncos should take care of business.

Pittsburgh at Green Bay (-6.5)

Big Ben seems mad. I like a mad Big Ben. I would not be surprised if the Steelers walk into Lambeau and beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. Seems like a Steeler thing to do 🖤

— 𝐑 𝐀 𝐂 𝐇 𝐀 𝐋 (@rach_elizabethh) September 29, 2021

It’s a battle of aging quarterbacks. One has a team around him. One doesn’t. As much as I like to give the Steelers the benefit of the doubt, I’d be shocked if the Packers don’t blow them out here.

Tampa Bay (-6.5) at New England

Patriots Home Record under Bill Belichick

with Tom Brady 121-20
with all other QBs 14-14 pic.twitter.com/P0nsYUuQsX

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 22, 2021

I realize that most of you have immediately scrolled down to this game, as it’s the only one that matters. BRADY. BELICHICK. SUNDAY NIGHT IS FOOTBALL NIGHT. It’s one of those games that Gabe Sapolsky would tell ROH fans back in the day needs no hype, but it’s gotten all of it.

It’s also the easiest one to pick though. Does anybody think Tom Brady’s losing to Mac Jones? C’mon son. The Buccaneers didn’t look too great against the Rams last week, but the Rams are actually pretty good. The Patriots, not so much. I’ll keep rolling with my not betting against Tom Brady thing. If he loses this week…he ain’t losing again. Just saying.

Las Vegas at LA Chargers (-3.5)

Week 3.. no complaints ☺️✌🏽🖤 pic.twitter.com/CSywe095ir

— Leigh (@LeighMayock) September 29, 2021

I may go against the Raiders eventualeighly, but not this week. We’ve talked about this before, things are just more interesting when the Raiders are good. Which they seem to be right now.

Week 3 Record: 7-9

Overall Record: 23-24-1