Hi, hello & welcome to Week 8 of the National Football League! It was actually a decent Week 7 for your humble correspondent’s picks, and we went 4-0 in the fantasy leagues for the first time this season. That seat’s feeling a bit cooler this week, and not just because it’s a bit cooler in the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky area.

It’s still early in the season though. How early? The Cincinnati Bengals are currently the #1 seed in the AFC. Don’t get me wrong, as a fan I’m very excited, and I’ve learned to enjoy these things as they’re happening instead of dwelling on the doom surely coming in future weeks. I’m just saying that we’re still not halfway through this season. Lots of football to be played, and lots of bets to be made. Let’s get to it. Odds provided by Vegas Insider.

Thursday, October 28

Green Bay at Arizona (-6.5)

Can’t sleep, here’s a random nugget while I count sheep: Packers & Cardinals combined win pct of .929 is the highest by 2 opposing teams entering a Thursday game in Week 8 or later since 1934 🔥

— Colleen Wolfe (@ColleenWolfe) October 27, 2021

People were out here telling us this could be the greatest game in the history of Thursday Night Football. Then Davante Adams got on the covid list, and now everything’s in doubt. When things are in doubt in Green Bay, I remember five letters that Aaron Rodgers told us long ago:

R-E-L-A-X.

It’ll be fine. We’re now getting extra points to pick the Packers. Gotta take them.

Sunday, October 31

Miami at Buffalo (-13.5)

#OTD in 1987 the Buffalo Bills overcome a 21-0 deficit to defeat the Miami Dolphins in overtime 34-31 on Scott Norwood's 27 yard field goal. Jim Kelly throws for 359, 130 of which to Chris Burkett. The game marks the first time the Bills come back from a 20+ point deficit. pic.twitter.com/m8i59OtDJ5

— ThisDateInBuffaloSportsHistory (@BuffSportsHstry) October 25, 2021

The Bills have been feasting off of inferior competition most of this season. Hey, they didn’t make the schedule! They’re just taking advantage, as good teams are supposed to. I don’t see the Dolphins doing much this week, other than maybe trading for a different quarterback for reasons.

Carolina at Atlanta (-3)

This Sam Darnold take is aging like milk. pic.twitter.com/0lM55CCbDe

— ⚛ Winning Culture ⚛ (@BigCheeseTC) October 24, 2021

Remember when Sam Darnold looked like the answer in Carolina? That sure didn’t last. His big return to New Jersey culminated in sitting on the bench while the Panthers finished getting blown out by the lowly Giants. The Falcons spent last week barely beating the lowly Dolphins, but at least they looked like a competent football team. Good enough for me!

Philadelphia (-3.5) at Detroit

Hearing that FOX will use this as the lead-in music to Sunday’s Eagles/Lions matchup. pic.twitter.com/GXeJceqekO

— #FlyEaglesFly (@_Philly_Talk) October 26, 2021

It’s not terribly surprising that both these teams are where they’re at considering they’re teams with first year coaches & talent issues. You don’t want to trust the Eagles as a road favorite given their performance this season. The question: can you trust the Lions as a home underdog? Honestly, I’d stay far away from betting on either of these two teams to do anything, they’re pretty wretched. If you must, take the Lions and the points.

A sobering thought for both fanbases: This is one of Detroit’s better chances at a win this season.

Tennessee (-1) at Indianapolis

If you rooted for Peyton Manning and the Colts, stay your ass over there. Don’t jump ship to the Titans now. https://t.co/7Uuih430RD

— Vincenzo (@HeHateV) October 23, 2021

OK, so these teams might be a little bit better than I thought. We’ve got two top notch running backs going at it here, and I don’t see Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor having too much trouble adding to their statistics. The Titans won by nine points at home, and have had some pretty close games on the road. They even lost to the Jets on the road! I feel like the Colts may have turned a corner on Sunday night, and a big win here would put them right in the mix.

LA Rams (-14.5) at Houston

Houston Chronicle reports Dolphins & Texans have agreed on trade terms for Watson, but Dolphins want his legal issues resolved before consummating deal (good luck with that).Chronicle suggests Ross wants clarity from Goodell on length of potential suspension (good luck with that)

— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) October 26, 2021

The Lions were a bit more game than I expected against the Rams last week. Can we expect the same from the Texans this week? If Tyrod Taylor plays, yes! I’m assuming he will for the sake of my picks here, and if he’s announced as the starter this number will get a little bit closer.

Cincinnati (-10) at NY Jets

If the betting line on the #Bengals/Jets game to 10 or more with the Zach Wilson news, it will be the first time this century that the Bengals are a double digit road favorite.

This is a factual statement and not a joke.

— Drew Garrison (@Drew_LRT) October 25, 2021

So I was ready to tell you to expect an upset this week due to Joe Flacco’s track record against the Bengals. Seemed obvious to me that the Jets made a sneaky pickup of a QB that knows the Bengals better than anybody. A couple of problems with that logic:

1. The Bengals defense is completely different than what it was when Flacco was leading the Ravens against them.
2. Flacco’s career record against the Bengals…not so good! A 9-11 win loss record, 21 touchdowns against 25 interceptions, and a 72.6 passer rating. Worse numbers than he had against the dreaded Steelers, and his worst passer rating against anybody he’s played more than five games against.

With that angle gone, there’s only one reason I can tell you to pick the Jets…LETDOWN GAME. The Bengals are coming off their biggest win in recent memory, and will surely be looking ahead to their meeting with the Browns in Week 9 before they take their bye. Plus, you take these young kids up to the bright lights of NYC and who knows what the heck could happen.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-3.5)

The rivalry between the Pittsburgh Steelers #HereWeGo and the Cleveland #Browns can be a little intense at times. #NFL #PITvsCLE pic.twitter.com/VYxz6Hd8HP

— Ed_in_Columbus (@ed_in_columbus) October 25, 2021

The Steelers’ 2020 season came crashing to an end in the wild card round against the Browns, so you know there’s going to be a desire for revenge there. They’re coming off of a bye, while the Browns had a bit of a mini-bye due to playing last Thursday. They definitely needed some time off with how banged up they are.

You know where I’m going here. When people count the Steelers out is when they’re at their most dangerous. You give me them and the points in a must-win division game, and I’ll take them every time. Especially off of a bye week.

San Francisco (-3) at Chicago

The 49ers were 3.5 point favorites.

Then Matt Nagy was diagnosed with COVID.

Now the 49ers are only 3 point favorites.

Coincidence?

— Bear Down Report™️🐻⬇️🔊 (@BearDown_Report) October 27, 2021

People told me the 49ers were going to be contenders. I was skeptical, and after six games they sit at 2-4 and I remain skeptical. Meanwhile, Matt Nagy tested positive for the covid & might not be available to coach the Bears this week. Does that matter? Tough to say. The Raiders have improved vastly since Jon Gruden got canned. Kliff Kingsbury missed a week and the Cardinals more than took care of business in his absence. Perhaps Nagy’s absence is what the Bears need?

I dunno honestly, I’m just taking whoever can give me some points here. Both these teams stink.

Jacksonville at Seattle (-3)

The Seahawks are only 3.0-point favorites at home against the Jaguars this week.

Quarterbacks. They are valuable.

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 26, 2021

You know you’re in trouble when you’re only favored by three at home against the Jaguars. But if you saw the Seahawks on Monday night, you understand why. Their running game wasn’t doing much, but Pete Carroll had little to no interest in having Geno Smith throw the ball. The Jaguars got a week off after a win in jolly ol’ England, a place with a climate fairly similar to Seattle. Can I pull the trigger on an upset here?

No…no I can’t. I just can’t tell you to pick the Jags in Seattle. Too much historical information suggesting that it’s a bad idea, and it’s not like the Saints team that won in Seattle is an awful team or anything. Seahawks it is, I suppose.

New England at LA Chargers (-5.5)

Worth noting ahead of this week’s game: The Patriots destroyed the Chargers on special teams in their 45-0 win last season (punt return TD, 61-yard punt return, blocked FG TD, missed FG).

This year’s Chargers rank … 32nd in special teams DVOA, per @fboutsiders.

— Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) October 26, 2021

I’m feeling good about the Patriots this week. Maybe it’s because they got to feast on the Jets last week, but I’m liking the matchup of Damien Harris against the Chargers’ inept rush defense. The Chargers did get a bye week to lick their wounds after their destruction at the hands of the Ravens, but I’m still expecting a close, high-scoring game here.

Washington at Denver (-3)

Guy might be out-earning me by about $50 million a year but at least I know what redaction is. https://t.co/t5LUNUK6x2

— Burgundy Blog (@BurgundyBlog) October 27, 2021

Since getting off to a 3-0 start against some inferior competition, the Broncos have stumbled, bumbled and fumbled their way through a four game losing streak. They find themselves against a Washington Football Team that has one less win to their credit and has gone through a gauntlet the last three weeks against teams considered among the best in the league.

I don’t have much faith in either of these teams, and when that happens I roll with the underdog. The Football Team it is, I guess.

Tampa Bay (-5) at New Orleans

Bucs play the Saints this week so I’m sure Twitter is going to be pleasant and not toxic at all👍🏾

— Brownie🤞🏾 (@plutobucs) October 26, 2021

I was looking at some tweets to use for this game and couldn’t help but notice the strange relationship between Bucs fans & Saints fans. Both sides claim that they don’t care about the other, but also can’t stop talking about the other. Reminds the rest of us that guy & girl we all knew in high school that supposedly couldn’t stand each other but spent all their time talking about each other. Just have sex already and get it over with, will ya? You’re driving the rest of us insane.

There’s probably something I’m missing here, but the Buccaneers seem like an easy pick. Even in the Superdome, which can be a scary place even when it isn’t Halloween. Tampa did lose twice to New Orleans last year, but these Saints aren’t those Saints.

Dallas (-2.5) at Minnesota

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (right calf) not in a protective boot. In good spirits. He is cheering for team nutritionist, who is running sprints on practice field. Prescott is expected to play Sunday at Vikings. pic.twitter.com/sCUyE36DnQ

— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) October 25, 2021

Let’s talk about Kissin’ Kirk Cousins for a minute. I can’t think of a quarterback that draws a wider range of opinion from people. You either get folks telling you he’s one of the top 5 QBs in the league, or people saying he shouldn’t even be in the league. He’s like John Cena, except the NFL doesn’t push him on top. He’s also been lights out against the Cowboys during his career, including two games with the Vikings where he’s thrown for a combined 534 yards & 5 touchdowns against zero interceptions.

Both teams are coming off of a bye here, so they’ll be fresh. Dak Prescott will likely be playing in spite of what Cowboys fans tell us. I can see why Dallas is favored, but I think the Vikings have enough weapons to at least make things super close.

Monday, November 1

NY Giants at Kansas City (-10)

Giants-Chiefs game next week will feature a QB who runs recklessly, turns the ball over, gets little help from his offensive line, and clearly tries to do too much on each snap rather than be smart and live to play another down.

Daniel Jones will play too.

— Tom Rock (@TomRock_Newsday) October 25, 2021

One can imagine what the spread would be here if the Chiefs had shown anything resembling the Chiefs of recent memory in the last few weeks. Their showing against Tennessee was especially pitiful. And believe it or not, Patrick Mahomes is almost seeming like a human being these days. His nine interceptions ties Zach Wilson for the league lead & he’s thrown INTs in the last six games.

You guys know what this means, right? It means that Mahomes is in for a big game on Monday night while Peyton & Eli get to talk about how incredible he is. The Chiefs are going to come back strong this week.

Last Week’s Results: 7-5-1

Overall Results: 47-57-3