Hi, hello & welcome to Week Nine of the National Football League! I had other business to attend to for most of the Week 8 slate, as I was down in Atlanta working Games 3-5 of the World Series. Which was probably for the best, as everything that could go wrong for my fantasy teams did go wrong. Went 3-1 for the week, but lost Derrick Henry & got nothing out of Kyler Murray. These things don’t bode well for the future, but there’s still time to make adjustments. The picks…well, let’s talk about baseball for a minute instead of talking about last week’s picks.

There’s a lesson to be learned from the Braves winning the World Series. I’m not sure how many of these teams are interested in learning it, certainly not my Reds if their GM’s comments about a trade they made on Wednesday are any indication.

Here’s the thing about the 2021 Atlanta Braves: They actively stunk for most of the season. Didn’t get above the .500 mark until early August. Their best player tore his ACL in July. Their ace didn’t pitch once this season. The Braves had every excuse in the world to pack it in and wait until next year, when their best players would be healthy and they could get off to a more optimal start. Instead, management tried to turn things around. Made a bunch of trades at the deadline to fill their outfield with more talent. Fortunately for Atlanta, the rest of the NL East wasn’t too great to begin with, and the other teams that could contend for the title fell off at the end of the season. That got the Braves into the postseason, and they got hot at the right time.

The lesson? Maybe if you actually apply yourselves and try to win something, you might actually win something! Too many of these baseball teams are perfectly happy to stay in a perpetual rebuild, selling their fans on hope for a day that never comes. Reds management talked about how they were rebuilding throughout the late 2010s, then it was time to contend in 2020! We got two seasons of the Reds kinda sorta trying to win things and failing miserably, and now we’re heading back into the Reds not trying to win things. Because that’s what most of these baseball teams do now. Once the Astros & Cubs found some success by tanking for draft picks in the early 2010s, nearly every franchise in baseball decided that was the key to success. Thing is: it doesn’t work as well when half the league is trying to do the same thing.

Baseball has a lot of problems. The Braves weren’t a problem this season, at least not on the field. They were an example of what a baseball team can do if they don’t give up on a season. A novel concept, at least in 2021.

OK, now we can get to football.

Thursday, November 4

NY Jets at Indianapolis (-10.5)

In a promo on Fox for Jets-Colts TNF during the World Series:

John Smoltz: "The #Jets shocked the world this weekend."

Joe Buck: "The legend of Mike White. … Excited to see how he plays."

— Dennis Waszak Jr. (@DWAZ73) November 3, 2021

So Mike White had himself a pretty big week against the Bengals. Can he do it again four days later? Somehow I doubt it. Colts take a boring Thursday night game.

Sunday, November 7

Houston at Miami (-6.5)

BREAKING NEWS: Deshaun Watson has NOT been traded today.

— Is Deshaun Watson traded (@IsWatsonTraded) November 3, 2021

The most interesting thing about either of these teams concerns a quarterback that won’t be playing. The Dolphins wanted Deshaun Watson, and they wanted to know that they could use him. The Texans wanted more than Miami was willing to give. Nothing happened, other than Tua Tagovailoa learning his future isn’t exactly set in stone. To be fair, he probably already had an idea. Neither of these teams have won since Week 1, and you kind of want to pick a tie. We’ll go with the Texans keeping it close, I guess. One of those games where if you’re betting on it you have a problem.

Denver at Dallas (-9.5)

#Cowboys are bringing back the red helmet stripe for the #Broncos game. The red helmet stripe has not been seen since the '76 season. Dallas went 11-3 that year, won the NFC East, and held the No. 2 seed in the conference. pic.twitter.com/WtiUXNNugX

— Mark Lane (@therealmarklane) November 3, 2021

OK, so Dak didn’t play last week. Turned out the Cowboys didn’t need him against the Vikings. He should be good to go against the Broncos, whose offense hasn’t looked too great against less imposing defenses than Dallas’s unit. The Cowboys will keep the Broncos point total low here.

Minnesota at Baltimore (-6)

In honor of it being Vikings week for the Ravens, here’s the craziest two minutes in NFL history pic.twitter.com/oIqkMQOkmM

— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) November 2, 2021

I’ve been trying to build the Vikings up for awhile now, but they’re that team that gets close and loses every single week. That’s why I’m liking them at -6 here, they’ll surely lose to Baltimore by less than that.

New England (-3.5) at Carolina

Fun Fact: #Patriots WR coach Mick Lombardi has a brother on the #Panthers coaching staff. Assistant QB's coach Matt Lombardi. pic.twitter.com/rrR4hgPq3R

— Keagan Stiefel (@KeaganStiefel) November 2, 2021

The Patriots should have a fairly easy time shutting Carolina’s offense down. Also, Bill Simmons told me that Mac Jones is going to lead them to the Super Bowl this season. Got those 2001 vibes going, you see.

Buffalo (-14.5) at Jacksonville

The Buffalo Bills schedule right now:

BYE
Dolphins
Jaguars
Jets

Every team has a BYE Week.

Buffalo has a BYE Month. pic.twitter.com/XjsjW2VjJl

— Kyle Brandt (@KyleBrandt) October 27, 2021

Bills? Bills. No reason to delve much into this one.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-2.5)

An underrated aspect of the trade deadline every year is the flood of new Odell speculation jersey swaps pic.twitter.com/xmS1jd7JbL

— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) November 2, 2021

I’d like to say it was surprising to hear that the Bengals lost to the Jets, but nobody that’s followed the Bengals for longer than five minutes was surprised by that. Losing to teams like the Jets after scoring big wins and attaining the attention of the national media is what the Bengals have always done. It’s very on-brand for them. Now they get to deal with their in-state rivals before a bye week. Seems like the Browns have had some issues lately, right? Not sure what’s going on with the OBJ thing, but it’s not like his being gone would affect them too much. I see the Browns winning this to send the Bengals stumbling, bumbling & fumbling into the bye week.

Las Vegas (-3) at NY Giants

Derek Carr walking into the Raiders facility every week pic.twitter.com/RgjjNFTMXX

— • (@CODYBELLlNGER) November 2, 2021

Talk about teams dealing with distractions, I don’t think there could be a much bigger distraction than what now-former Raiders WR Henry Ruggs went and did on his bye week. I don’t expect to see that name pop up on an NFL roster again unless somebody else named their kid Henry Ruggs. Just a sad situation all around that created nothing good for anybody. Tough to transition right from that to a football pick, but that’s what the people want me to do.

It already seemed like the Raiders had pulled closer together after Jon Gruden’s dismissal, and I could see them getting even closer now. Derek Carr has been a strong vocal leader in the last couple of days. Travelling across the country is tough, but maybe the travel helps in this situation. The Giants have been looking better of late, but have a virus situation they’re dealing with. I think this will be a super close game and the Giants could get within three even if they don’t end up winning.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-6)

Remember that time Taysom Hill beat the Falcons twice in three weeks? https://t.co/YEuQuInAu6

— TheSaintsWire (@TheSaintsWire) November 3, 2021

Two teams that don’t like each other here. Vegas seems to think that Jameis Winston’s status doesn’t affect too much with the Saints, and they’re probably right. Taysom Hill has had success against the Falcons in the past, and likely will again. I still think the Falcons keep it close in a game that they’ll be motivated in.

LA Chargers (-1.5) at Philadelphia

#Eagles look to win their 1st home game since last December Sunday against the Chargers

Eagles are 0 for their last 4 at the Linc

“Home field advantage matters”
-Nick Sirianni pic.twitter.com/uKWatQXpfg

— Jeff Skversky (@JeffSkversky) November 3, 2021

The Eagles looked pretty good last week against the Lions, but that was the Lions. Justin Herbert’s gone through a bit of a sophomore slump lately, but should rebound here. I like the Chargers to win by a comfortable margin.

Green Bay at Kansas City (-7)

Aaron Rodgers when asked if he was vaccinated😂 pic.twitter.com/G6RZeuAlQv

— PointsBet Sportsbook (@PointsBetUSA) November 3, 2021

Back when the NFL released their 2021 schedule, everybody had this one circled as one of the biggest games of the year. Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes? Seemed like Christmas coming early. Now that we’re a few days away, people aren’t as excited. Turns out the Chiefs offense isn’t what it used to be, and their defense is completely useless. The Packers were humming along and living up to expectations, but now Aaron Rodgers has the coronavirus and it turns out his “immunization” was in the form of some home remedies. Guess he & Dr. Oz got close during their time as Jeopardy guest hosts.

Green Bay got a big road win last week that people didn’t expect. Granted, they still had Aaron Rodgers at that point. The good news for Jordan Love? He gets to make his debut against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. I don’t think he’ll embarrass himself, and I also think the Packers keep this one close.

Arizona (-2.5) at San Francisco

Cardinals QB Colt McCoy warming up ahead of practice Wednesday.

If Kyler Murray can’t go Sunday, McCoy will be the guy at starting QB vs. the 49ers. pic.twitter.com/t7O012TKJY

— Tyler Drake (@Tdrake4sports) November 3, 2021

Are the 49ers finally becoming the team people told me they were before the season? Maybe, they looked pretty good against those Bears with Jimmy G doing his thing. Kyler Murray didn’t do much to impress on Thursday night against the Packers and got a little banged up. I’m liking the 49ers to pull an upset and make things interesting in the NFC West.

Tennessee at LA Rams (-7.5)

Adrian Peterson after being signed by the Titans vs Adrian Peterson after realizing the first thing he’ll face is the new Rams defense with Von Miller pic.twitter.com/NTNPOou5pm

— NOTSportsCenter (@NOTSportsCenter) November 1, 2021

Derrick Henry being out of the mix is very bad news for my fantasy football teams. Mostly because I was traveling on Monday and was unable to add his potential replacements to my squads. The Tennessee Titans will need to work to replace his output too, but at least there’s options there. A.J. Brown looked like the stud WR we thought he was against Indianapolis. Julio Jones returned to practice this week and would be a solid addition if healthy. Plus, they brought in Adrian Peterson.

The Rams won the trade deadline, making their defense even more imposing with the addition of Von Miller. Tough not to favor them this week against a banged-up Titans team, the question is if we like them by 7.5. Screw it, let’s go all in with the Rams. I respect teams that go for the gusto.

Monday, November 8

Chicago at Pittsburgh (-6.5)

BREAKING:

The Manning’s will not be covering the #Bears MNF matchup against the Steelers.

An absolute miss on ESPN’s part, they would have TORE in on Matt Nagy and this offensive scheme.

— Bears Nation (3-5) (@BearsNationCHI) November 2, 2021

On one hand, it’s a bit surprising that Peyton & Eli Manning aren’t working this game. Chicago is the third biggest market in the US while the Steelers are one of those teams that have fans across the nation thanks to their prior success. On the other hand, the idea of analyzing Matt Nagy’s offense could be very uncomfortable for the Mannings, given Peyton’s affinity for Nagy. In case you haven’t noticed, the Bears offense isn’t good.

I don’t see either team putting a ton of points on the board, but the Steelers can win by a touchdown or more.

Last Week’s Results: 6-9
Overall Results: 53-66-3