It’s NFL Week 7, and Steve Cook has YOUR gambling picks! Can Cook deliver? Hop in and see!

Hi, hello & welcome to Week 7! We’re in that part of the season that fantasy players refer to as the “bye week blues”. This week will see three division leaders on their off week: the Bills, Vikings & Eagles. The Rams will also be on their bye. Fantasy players that have profited off of players on these teams are stuck looking for other players. Football fans that have enjoyed watching these teams play are stuck looking for other teams to watch.

The NFL has given us a series of games that seem like squash match material. That’s the thing about this league: you never really know for sure. You might think some of these games won’t be close, but then they are. Let’s see what’s up in Week 7. Lines are via Vegas Insider Consensus as of Wednesday night.

Thursday, October 20

New Orleans at Arizona (-2)

The Cardinals and Saints got a few similarities at the moment.

Disappointing 2-4 start to the season.
Dealing with a ton of injuries.
Jury still out on the head coach.
One of the oldest rosters in the league.

— Chris Rosvoglou (@RosvoglouReport) October 19, 2022

How important is DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals’ offense? We’re about to find out. The Cardinals are coming off of one of their most miserable offensive showings in recent memory against a Seahawk defense that had been gashed for points in every game up to that point. Arizona lost Marquise Brown in that game, but immediately traded for Robby Anderson afterward. The Cardinals offense should get better, but asking them for vast improvement on a short week is a big ask. Unless D-Hop is just that big a key to their success. Guess we’ll find out!

The Saints lost a nail-biter to the Bengals on Sunday that they probably should have won, but also have a bunch of missing parts. Should make for quite the Thursday night matchup. The Saints have looked a bit better than the Cardinals lately, so I’ll give them the edge here.

Sunday, October 23

Cleveland at Baltimore (-6.5)

The Ravens are the first team in NFL history to hold a double-digit lead in each of their first 6 games and NOT have a winning record, via @EliasSports @ESPNStatsInfo #Browns

— Jake Trotter (@Jake_Trotter) October 19, 2022

The AFC North looks like its going to be one of the closest races in the NFL. Both of these teams have shown a knack for blowing big leads and ending up in close games. I think the Ravens will win, but not by the point margin Vegas Insider is giving me. Take the Browns and the points.

Tampa Bay (-10.5) at Carolina

FANTASY FOOTBALL STAT OF THE WEEK!!!

In his last 4 games against a team with a cat as its logo, Tom Brady has averaged 311.8 pass yards per game with a 72.9% completion rate, 11 touchdowns & 0 interceptions.

Buccaneers play the Panthers in Week 7.

— Al Smizzle (@AlZeidenfeld) October 18, 2022

On one hand, it’s tough to justify picking the Panthers against anybody. They’ve been even worse than Todd Bergman told me they would be, which is saying something since ol’ T-Berg is never positive about his sports teams’ chances. (To be fair, his teams don’t usually do very well.) On the other hand, the Bucs have been an a bit of a poop show, including a loss last week to the Steelers while Tom Brady was busy going to Bob Kraft’s wedding and trying to find the next Mrs. Brady amongst the bridesmaids.

Like every other Buccaneers pick so far this season, I don’t feel great about it. I don’t see another viable option though.

Atlanta at Cincinnati (-6.5)

Best offensive DVOA in Week 6 💥

1) Cincinnati Bengals, 38.2%
2) Buffalo Bills, 33.8%
3) Atlanta Falcons, 33.7%
4) Indianapolis Colts, 31.2%
5) Kansas City Chiefs, 17.4%#NFL | #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/12CBwKMVwh

— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) October 19, 2022

The Bengals seemed to get things back on track this week, and fans are now hoping this leads to a big run taking the team back to the playoffs. Fortunately the rest of the AFC North has had a rough time too, so it wouldn’t be hard for a team getting hot to pull away from the pack. I think the Bengals win…but the Falcons are 6-0 against the spread and just had their best showing of the season against the 49ers. I expect them to keep things close in Cincinnati.

Detroit at Dallas (-7)

Will Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (thumb) play Sunday vs. Lions?

“He’s determined to,” Jerry Jones tells @1053thefan. “From what I can know and see, I think he can get there. We feel like physically he’s at a position where the risk/reward justifies him being out there.”

— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) October 18, 2022

Last week was the week for the talking head sports shows to talk about how Cooper Rush should be the QB1 in Dallas going forward. Then the Cowboys played the Eagles, and now everybody’s back to awaiting Dak Prescott’s return. Dr. Jones thinks it’ll be this week, Dak wants it to be this week, so I’d expect it to be this week. Whoever plays quarterback for the Cowboys will be facing off against a Lions defense with more holes in it than cheese from Switzerland.

The Lions might score enough points late to keep it close, but I’ll still ride with the Cowboys.

NY Giants at Jacksonville (-3)

Seeing the Giants as 3-point underdogs against the Jaguars 🤔 pic.twitter.com/68leTTmAS5

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 19, 2022

Last week we were talking about how the Giants weren’t getting much respect from Vegas. New week, same story. Nobody can really explain the Giants’ recent success, so we just all assume it’ll come to an end at some point. Will it come to an end in Jacksonville? We were hoping the Jags would become a thing, but a three-game losing streak sugggests that they’re reverting to the Jags we’ve known and loved for years. At least they already have two wins, right?

So why are the Giants good? New coach Brain Daboll seems to have a big part in it. Saquon Barkley staying on the field surely has helped. Daniel Jones hasn’t been bad, even if he isn’t doing much for potential fantasy owners. Both lines are doing well and the secondary is creating turnovers. No reason not to keep the good vibes going and roll with the Giants.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-2.5)

There is exactly one NFL game in Week 7 where both teams have winning records, and it's the 3-2 Titans against the 3-2-1 Colts. This might be the worst slate of games I've ever seen.

— Ken Tremendous (@KenTremendous) October 18, 2022

It feels like the Colts have already had all of their AFC South games. They almost have, as after this week the only divisional games they have left will be two meetings with the Houston Texans. I assume most NFL teams are in the same boat on this, and it’s just more noticeable when one dreads picking AFC South games every week. Yes, this is the only game with two winning teams this week, but does anybody have faith in either of these teams?

The Titans did get the win in Indy a couple of weeks ago, so I’m liking them to come back strong off the bye week and get another win here.

Green Bay (-5) at Washington

Commanders vs Packers

Let’s ride. pic.twitter.com/tJShdDzLoE

— michael phillips (@michaelpRTD) October 15, 2022

Matt LaFleur doesn’t know what Aaron Rodgers means when Rodgers says they need to simplify the offense. I’m about 95% sure that what Rodgers is saying is that the players around him need things dumbed down. Understandable, he’s got a lot of rookies and youngsters at skill positions. Not everybody gets things right away. It also doesn’t help that Rodgers looks like he needs to get back on whatever herbal supplement he was using last season, as he’s not looking like the same guy in 2022.

Then we have the Commanders, who will be led by Taylor Heinicke on Sunday due to Carson Wentz being out. I don’t think Heinicke is much of a downgrade from Carson Wentz at this point, but I also don’t think I trust him to lead Washington to a victory over the Packers, no matter how rough that team’s looked lately.

NY Jets at Denver (-0.5)

The Denver Broncos defensive DVOA Rankings:

Pass: 1st
Run: 18th

For the many calling for it, this probably isn't the week to let Zach Wilson "air it out" #Jets

— Matt O'Leary (@MattOLearyNY) October 19, 2022

You know things are serious in Denver when Russell Wilson junks his end-of press conference catchphrase. Another dreadful prime time defeat puts one of the most-hyped NFL teams in the offseason at 2-4 and looking quite irrelevant. Their defense still looks legit, but there’s no reason to believe in their offense. The question: can we believe in the Jets in altitude? Given their team name, you’d think so. You’ve also got Zach Wilson heading as close to home as he can in the NFL, which means at least one section of the Broncos’ stadium will consist of Wilson’s family members and future wives. I’m not saying it’ll be like Joe Burrow & Ja’Marr Chase returning to the Superdome, but it’ll be pretty close.

It’ll be tougher for Breece Hall to find some running room in Denver. I think the Broncos‘ defense is enough to give them the benefit of th-well, not really benefit of the doubt, just the pick this week.

Houston at Las Vegas (-7)

🦓Referee John Hussey is assigned to the Texans vs Raiders game. 🏴‍☠️🏈

Raiders are 0-6 when he officiates.

* Solely for the purpose of information. pic.twitter.com/HHivjRDzqX

— AFL Godfather 🏴‍☠️👓🏈 (@NFLMAVERICK) October 18, 2022

The Texans were supposed to be bad. The Raiders…well, we had higher expectations for them, though we’re forgetting why. Davante Adams is too busy pushing people around on the sidelines to be the game-changer people thought he would be. I really don’t have much to say about either of these teams right now, so I’ll just take the Texans and the points.

Seattle at LA Chargers (-6)

The Seahawks have their own issues, of course, but this feels like it could be something of an advantage in next Sunday’s game vs. the Chargers at SoFi Stadium: Los Angeles will be coming off a short week AND an OT game that basically lasted an extra half of a quarter.

— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) October 18, 2022

The Chargers are on a three-game winning streak. Maybe a lot of that has to do with the inferior competition, but it’s not like they made their own schedule. This week they’ll face another team that’s had some struggles, in particular on defense. Except for last week when they randomly shut the Cardinals down, the Seahawks have struggled on the defensive side of the ball. I think that continues this week, but I also think the Seahawks can keep it close in a shootout with Geno Smith & Kenneth Walker III.

Kansas City (-2.5) at San Francisco

Patrick Mahomes will make his 70th career start in Week 7 against the 49ers.

Most QB Wins in First 70 Starts
Super Bowl Era

Ken Stabler (55)
Patrick Mahomes (54)
Tom Brady (52)
Roger Staubach (52)#ChiefsKingdom @Chiefs @ProFootballHOF

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 19, 2022

If the 49ers defense was perfectly healthy, this would be one heck of a game. One could see Nick Bosa giving Patrick Mahomes fits by chasing after him all day. One could see Emmanuel Moseley shutting down one or two of Kansas City’s wide receivers at certain points of the game. I don’t really see that happening this week. The Chiefs should rebound well from a close loss to Buffalo that was apparently revenge for something or other.

Pittsburgh at Miami (-7)

We knew it would be a throwback for the Dolphins on Sunday night vs. the Steelers, and today we learned it’ll be the home green!

Can it be Sunday night already???#FinsUp pic.twitter.com/q2vnO2AGNI

— Fins Up Network (@FinsUpNetwork) October 19, 2022

Kind of a tough draw for SUNDAY NIGHT IS FOOTBALL NIGHT, but at least we’ve got the return of Tua Tagovailoa to get people talking. After defeating the Bills in the game where Tua first got injured and seemingly establishing themselves as playoff contenders, the Dolphins promptly lost three straight games. Tua’s been medically cleared, but one wonders how long he’ll last since both Teddy Bridgewater & Skylar Thompson got hurt and taken out of game. That’s three straight weeks a QB was taken out by injury, and it probably should have been four given what happend with Tua against the Bills. Would it kill the Dolphins to protect their quarterback?

Of course the Steelers would defeat the Buccaneers right after we talked about them likely having a losing season. I’ll take the blame on this one, and I’ll take the Steelers to keep the game close.

Monday, October 24

Chicago at New England (-8)

Joe Buck summed up next week’s MNF matchup already 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 pic.twitter.com/I3jwE4yx1k

— Eric Robinson (@_Eric_Robinson) October 18, 2022

Some good news regarding prime time games! This is the last time we’ll have to see the Chicago Bears play in prime time this season, barring them getting flexed to Sunday Night Football. I don’t think we have to worry about that, so let us rejoice in the fact that we won’t have to watch bad Bears games for the rest of the season.

This promises to be another one of those unwatchable Bears games. The Patriots have been stout on defense, and Bill Belichick is looking to tie Bears icon George Halas in the win column. We know he will. The question is how close the game will be. I’m looking for Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe or whoever’s starting for the Patriots this week to take care of business.

Week 6 Results: 6-8
Overall Results: 41-50-4