Hi, hello and welcome to Week 15 of the National Football League! I’m Steve Cook, and let’s not talk about what happened last week. Sure, it was a good week of football with tons of excitement, but my picks did almost as poorly as Patrick Mahomes & the Chiefs have been doing against the Bengals here in 2022. I didn’t go 0-fer like Andy Reid & company, but it was still a really rough week. All that means is that the Road to Above .500 got a little bit longer.

Let’s regroup this week. You’ll notice that we have some games on Saturday this week, which is pretty exciting. One of these years we’ll have an NFL game nearly every day, and it’ll be a good time. Let’s see if we can have good times with the picks this week!

Thursday, December 15

San Francisco (-3.5) at Seattle

Nick Bosa on 49ers-Seahawks: "We're definitely expecting an all-out war. Probably really similar to '19. Just really big stakes and two teams that know each other really well and don't particularly like each other."

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) December 13, 2022

It doesn’t matter who’s at quarterback for the 49ers. Not when Christian McCaffrey is running all over people and the defense is shutting teams down. It helps that Brock Purdy seems to have figured out the 49ers offense and has looked very competent since filling in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. Having three quarterbacks that can win a decent amount of games for you is a good problem to have. Expect people to lose their minds this off-season when the 49ers don’t trade Purdy away for a box of Kit-Kats.

The Seahawks have had problems stopping teams recently. The Carolina Panthers ran all over them on Sunday, and I don’t see things being too different on THURSDAY NIGHT IS FOOTBALL NIGHT. Take the 49ers, but keep an eye on that QB situation as Purdy is dealing with an injury of his own. I know San Fran has an excess of quarterbacks, but that shouldn’t mean they can all get hurt.

Saturday, December 17

Indianapolis at Minnesota (-4.5)

All this talk about the Vikings negative point differential…

SIX of the 14 teams currently in playoff position have given up more points than they've scored.

TEN -35
NYG -33
LAC -31
TB -30
WAS -3
MIN -1

— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) December 12, 2022

People have been waiting for the Vikings to fade away all season. Once they make it to the postseason as the NFC North champions, people will tell you about how they can’t wait to bet against the Minnesota Vikings. Their ten wins have been largely ignored while the three losses have been discussed to the high heavens. Sure, Justin Jefferson gets a lot of respect, but the rest of the team might as well be the Bad News Bears in the eyes of football fans.

The disrespect will probably continue this week, but it won’t be here. Jeff Saturday will have had a bye week to continue the process of becoming an NFL head coach, but he will not be getting his second win in Minneapolis. Expect the Vikings to take care of business at home on a Saturday afternoon.

Baltimore at Cleveland (-2.5)

Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey hopes to give Browns QB Deshaun Watson, a “not so soft welcoming” to Ravens-Browns rivalry on Saturday.

“I know he’s going to be there for a while,” Humphrey said. “So, I’ll be matching up against him for a while.” pic.twitter.com/YKQJGbImoG

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 13, 2022

Much like the 49ers, the Ravens are sitting over here running through quarterbacks. Tyler Huntley got a concussion on Sunday, leaving the position in the sure hands of Anthony Brown. Brown didn’t do a whole heck of a lot in the second half against the Steelers, but he didn’t have to. The Ravens running game took care of business, and I’d expect a similar game plan against the Browns no matter if it’s Brown or Huntley out there on Saturday.

The experts really want us to believe in the Browns, but I still don’t see it. The rust factor is real with Deshaun Watson, and I don’t expect him to return to his old self against a Ravens defense that would like nothing more than to make mincemeat of him. Well, they might want something more than that. I didn’t poll them.

Miami at Buffalo (-7.5)

The Bills can officially clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Dolphins on Saturday night.

They could also clinch with a tie and a mess of other stuff happening. pic.twitter.com/hJ5RbYvYFb

— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia) December 14, 2022

Buffalo is expecting seven inches of snow on Saturday. That’s not much for Buffalonians, but to a warm-weather team like the Miami Dolphins it’s the height of ridiculousness. They don’t need this kind of nonsense but that’s exactly what they’ll get. Josh Allen is unaffected by any type of weather, and should lead the Bills to a relatively easy victory over their AFC East rivals.

Sunday, December 18

Atlanta at New Orleans (-4)

If the Saints lose to the Falcons on Sunday they should leave Dennis Allen on the tarmac. I know it's a home game. They should drive him out there and leave him.

— Jeff Asher (@Crimealytics) December 12, 2022

There aren’t many more bitter rivalries than Falcons/Saints in the NFL, and this one could have some playoff implications. I have no idea why that’s the case, but it’s where we’re at here in 2022. The Falcons will be debuting Desmond Ridder at quarterback, which has Cincinnati Bearcat fans all excited. They might be in a poor mood after the Wasabi Fenway Bowl on Saturday, where hopefully my Louisville Cardinals will retain the Keg of Nails. Will Ridder be able to lead the Falcons into the Superdome and score an upset over Andy Dalton and the Saints?

I think Ridder does have some potential, but betting on a rookie on the road isn’t something I’d recommend. The Saints should be able to hold the Falcons to a low score and keep whatever playoff hopes they have alive for another week.

Detroit (-1) at NY Jets

Lions are playing the Jets this week. How many times will “same old Jets” and “same old Lions” tweets will there be? Whatever the number is, take the over.

— Mike Brodsky (@brodskyme) December 14, 2022

The Lions used to just play offense, but now they’re mixing in a little bit of defense. Not a tremendous amount, but enough to give teams like the Jets trouble. The majority of Detroit fans seem to believe that the Lions will run the table and make it into the playoffs as NFC North Champions. What does the schedule look like?

-at NY Jets
-at Carolina
-vs Chicago
-at Green Bay

…oh, they could actually win all of those games. Well I’ll be a monkey’s uncle. I think the Lions will at least win this week, as the Jets seem to be getting back to what they usually are. Which are the Jets.

Kansas City (-14) at Houston

The only thing I’m worried about when it comes to the CHIEFS x TEXANS is the Chiefs letting yet another bad team hang around for no reason whatsoever

— 🗣🎙‼️ (@LanceTHESPOKEN) December 14, 2022

The Texans put up much more fight than most people expected against the Cowboys last week. Can they do the same against the Chiefs? I don’t see why not. Kansas City got out to a 27-0 lead against Denver with 4 minutes left in the second quarter, then spent most of the rest of the game allowing the Broncos to get back in the game. If they’re willing to do that for Russell Wilson & the Broncos, I don’t see why they can’t do it for the Houston Texans and whoever their quarterback is this week. Lovie Smith isn’t telling us, and it’s tough to blame him.

Expect the Chiefs to win, but the Texans to get some of those garbage time statistics that fantasy owners love.

Philadelphia (-9) at Chicago

No. 1 #Eagles vs. No. 32 Bears this Sunday: https://t.co/bfpNWvAbON

— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) December 14, 2022

After a couple of nail-biters at the end of November, the Eagles have trucked fools in their last two games. One would expect them to truck some fo-nah, I shouldn’t be mean to the Bears. It’s been a long season/decade for the Bears and their fans, let’s leave them alone. They’ll have enough to deal with this week anyway. Justin Fields will be running for his life all day as the Eagles roll to an easy victory.

Pittsburgh at Carolina (-2.5)

#Steelers Mason Rudolph: “I’m ready to rock if I’m needed.” pic.twitter.com/mJxTarnOcG

— Corey Crisan (@cdcrisan) December 12, 2022

From what people in North Carolina tell me, there are just as many Steeler fans as there are Panther fans. I don’t know if they’re exaggerating the number of steelheads or not, but expect a Steeler-friendly crowd here. The question is if the Panthers will be cooperative hosts or not. They got their biggest win of the season in Seattle, and a defense that shut Geno Smith down for the most part will get a piece of either Kenny Pickett or Mitchell Trubisky. It’s a must-win for the Panthers, so I’ll pick that to make the NFC South just that much more interesting.

Dallas (-4.5) at Jacksonville

A Dallas Cowboys win this week would be the first one that the franchise has ever had in Jacksonville.

The Cowboys did win a game that the Jaguars hosted, but it took place in London.

Dallas is 0-1 in Jacksonville specifically.

— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) December 13, 2022

The Cowboys seem to be on track to get a playoff spot. Though the Eagles have a couple of games on them in the NFC East, the Cowboys have a couple of games on the rest of the wild card teams. Which is good news since they’ll be playing a pesky Jags team coming off of a big win over Tennessee.

The bad news for Jacksonville? We’ve seen this before. They get a good win, everybody gets excited, and the very next game ends with the Jags getting blown out and remind us who they are. Expect the Cowboys to benefit this week.

Arizona at Denver (-2.5)

Brett Rypien at QB for the Broncos vs. Colt McCoy for the Cardinals next week pic.twitter.com/F13CYp50Uq

— Jacob Infante (@jacobinfante24) December 13, 2022

Arizona’s 2022 season sure seemed to come to an end on Monday night against New England. Kyler Murray is out for the season, leaving Colt McCoy to play out the string of.. .well I don’t think people are too surprised how this Cardinals season has gone. They seem to have missed their window and will have some big decisions to make in the off-season.

The Broncos will also have some big decisions to make. I like them this week mostly because they’re playing in Denver, and as we said, the Cardinal season is pretty well done.

New England (-1) at Las Vegas

#Bills are the #1 seed, meanwhile, the Jets, Patriots, Jaguars, and Raiders are “loitering” pic.twitter.com/yU6KPvQ25s

— Greg Vorse TV (@GregVorse) December 13, 2022

The Patriots had a good showing on Monday night in Arizona while the Raiders did what they usually do this season: get out to a big lead and lose. Not the type of team I can recommend picking against the Patriots. Whether it’s Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe or whoever at quarterback, it’s still Bill Belichick coaching against Josh McDaniels. I know who I have more confidence in.

Tennessee at LA Chargers (-3)

#Titans Derrick Henry is set to play in his 100th career game (regular season) this Sunday against the LA Chargers! pic.twitter.com/lw18OgeZpA

— Kayla Anderson (@KaylaAndersonTV) December 14, 2022

What the heck happened to the Titans? Was the Treylon Burks injury such a huge deal that it derailed the Titans offense? Between this and the struggles of the Preds early in the NHL season, times are tough in Nashville.

I’d like to be able to tell my Nashville friends that times will get better soon, but I don’t see it happening. Preds management will continue to make baffling personnel decisions and not get punished, while Titans ownership will fire anybody that looks at them the wrong way. Oh, and Justin Herbert will lead the Chargers to another win this week.

Cincinnati (-3.5) at Tampa Bay

Since Week 9 (game after Shaq Barrett went on IR), the #Buccaneers defense ranks 23rd in EPA vs Dropbacks and 16th in Success Rate vs. Dropbacks.

In that same span, the #Bengals offense ranks 4th in Dropback EPA and 2nd in Dropback Success Rate.

Lines up for a big Burrow game. pic.twitter.com/zpbtd4hS4V

— Willie Lutz (@willie_lutz) December 13, 2022

I’m sure it’s happened before. But I don’t recall seeing a football game featuring Tom Brady have viewers cut away to a more competitive game by the network carrying it. It was absolutely the right move, as the 49ers were up 35-0 on the Buccaneers behind the power of Christian McCaffrey & Brock Purdy. The good news for Tampa is that their 6-7 record is good enough for first place in the NFC South, though the Panthers & Falcons are only a game back and the Saints are two games back. One of these teams will host a playoff game. Boggles the mind, doesn’t it?

Meanwhile, the Bengals have won five straight games and look to be in good position to make their second playoff appearance of the Joe Burrow Era. They are headed in one direction while Brady & the Buccaneers are headed in the other. So why am I picking the Buccaneers this week?

Because Tom Brady is on to Cincinnati. And we know what happens when he’s on to Cincinnati. (Spoiler Alert: I’ll be using this phrase again next week.)

NY Giants at Washington (-4.5)

NFC East through 14 weeks in 2020
Commanders 6-7
Giants 5-8
Eagles 4-8-1
Cowboys 4-9

NFC East through 14 weeks in 2022
Eagles 12-1
Cowboys 10-3
Commanders 7-5-1
Giants 7-5-1 pic.twitter.com/gTrspLu2oE

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 12, 2022

Not gonna lie, folks. The main thing I’d like to see happen here is another tie. Since overtime became a thing back in 1974, no team has ever had two ties in a season. Having two teams play two games ending in a tie in the same season? Why, that’d be something you’d tell your grandchildren about! Maybe you wouldn’t, but I certainly would. I don’t have a lot of interesting stories.

One would expect another close game considering that the first meeting between these two ended in a tie. Since this is the NFL and things change by the minute, I’m expecting a totally different result this time around. Let’s go with the Commanders covering. They’ve looked pretty good recently while the Giants are trending downward.

Monday, December 18

LA Rams at Green Bay (-6.5)

ESPN should give Joe and Troy a raise for the way they’re trying to sell next week’s god awful Rams-Packers game.

— Jimmy Traina (@JimmyTraina) December 13, 2022

In fairness, ESPN executives were probably giving each other high-fives when Rams vs. Packers originally popped up on the MNF schedule. The reigning Super Bowl Champions heading to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field late to the season in a game that would likely have playoff implications? Could have been a ratings bonanza for the Mothership. Now, not so much. The Rams are pretty much out of the playoff race while the Packers are hanging on by a thread.

There is a bit of good news for the Rams, and for ESPN: Baker Mayfield led them to a big win on Thursday night, and just might be the thing they need when Matthew Stafford steps aside. If he hasn’t already. The jury’s still out on Baker, but one can’t knock the early returns. The most interesting thing to happen would be the Rams at least keeping things close against Aaron Rodgers. I’d bet on it happening.

Week 14 Results: 4-9
Overall Results: 99-104-6